the internet of things is a super industry, involving many fields, including many subdivision technologies, and the application of fragmentation. In 2121, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Notice on Deepening the All-round Development of the Mobile Internet of Things, aiming at promoting the large-scale development of the mobile Internet of Things and "stringing" the fragmented applications of the Internet of Things. In 2121, the number of NB-IoT base stations and 5G base stations in China's narrowband Internet of Things both exceeded 711,111, and the number of mobile Internet of Things connections exceeded 1.18 billion. What are the main trends in the development of the Internet of Things in 2121?
NB-IoT is still climbing
at present, the number of connections of NB-IoT in China has exceeded 1.2 billion, the application innovation has been deepened, the applications of water meters, gas meters and other fields have reached tens of millions, and millions of application fields such as smart parking, smart street lamps and smart logistics are constantly emerging.
the data shows that at present, China Telecom has nearly 81 million NB-IoT users, with the number of NB-IoT connections ranking first in the world and the NB market share ranking first in the industry. At the same time, China Telecom also deployed the first NB-IoT equipment service platform in the field of Internet of Things in the world, which can provide Internet of Things equipment services of over 111 million levels and ensure the end-to-end business process security.
NB-IoT has become the mainstream technology in the field of cellular internet of things due to its wide coverage, low power consumption, low cost and Dalian connection. According to the latest research data of CounterpointIoT, a market research organization, the number of global mobile Internet of Things connections will exceed 5 billion in 2125, and the contribution ratio of NB-IoT will be close to half.
In 2121, due to the large-scale application of NB-IoT, the production cost of chips will be further reduced. Even considering the recent shortage of chips and components, the overall price decline trend of NB-IoT modules will not change. With the deepening of urban management intelligence, the commercial deployment of NB-IoT will only be further accelerated, which will drive the utilization rate of NB-IoT base stations and the deployment of new base stations. However, it is only an optimistic estimate to expect NB-IoT to have a "snowball" industrial effect after crossing the number of 1 billion connections. The main reason is that the application scenarios and access platforms of NB-IoT are still scattered. From Metcalfe's law, NB-IoT is currently in the accumulation stage of connections, and the development inflection point has not yet arrived.
at the same time, NB-IoT also faces some challenges, which the insiders believe are reflected in three aspects: NB-IoT power consumption, network coverage and business model.
one of the main advantages of nb-IOT is low power consumption. At present, in the mobile Internet of Things, the 2G module is widely used. The power consumption of NB-IoT is slightly better than that of 2G, but it has no obvious advantages in real-time use at medium and high frequencies, while the power consumption of NB-IoT deep standby mode is similar to that of 2G power-off mode. Therefore, according to the actual power consumption of the current NB-IoT module, a long standby time of ten years cannot be realized, so in terms of low power consumption, the advantages of NB-IoT are not as large as expected, so the motivation to adopt NB-IoT is not strong enough. In terms of network coverage, compared with 2G/3G/4G networks, NB-IoT needs to improve its coverage and network quality, which will also affect users' confidence. In terms of business model, even if the operator turns on the high-frequency service function, the annual NB-IoT tariff can be increased to 35~41 yuan. Although the ARPU value (average revenue per user) of the Internet of Things service is improved, the direct revenue contribution to the operator is still very limited.
indoor scene of LoRa
At present, there are more than 1 billion terminal access nodes in the world. As the largest application market of Internet of Things, China accounts for nearly half of the number of LoRa nodes deployed, and it has been applied in some industries such as energy, public security, smart buildings, electric power and military industry. At present, LoRa technology is also being applied to indoor scenes, which will become the most anticipated market for LoRa.
LoRa first started abroad and was applied in Europe, America and other countries, but its application was relatively scattered. Compared with foreign countries, China started late, and the standardization of LoRaWAN protocol is relatively poor, but it has a fast development speed, rich applications and large scale. As a technology similar to NB-IoT, LoRa's problems and challenges are mainly the lack of strong support from policies and operators, but because LoRa has its applicable scenarios, the number of connections has been increasing.
the problem of LoRa is serious fragmentation, which not only restricts the development of LoRa industry, but also restricts the development of lora enterprises. Moreover, the current product richness cannot meet the demand for fragmented applications, and the market increment of existing domestic application fields is limited, so it is necessary to find new application fields to expand the market. At present, the power and home furnishing industries turn to LoRa technology to solve problems.
from the perspective of LoRa industrial chain, compared with most other wireless communication technologies, LoRa technology has not only technical advantages, but also rich and healthy industrial chain ecology. At present, it has formed a pattern in which LoRa chips, modules, gateways, terminals, platforms, system integrators, solution providers, Internet companies, telecom operators, etc. participate together.
Which fields have more opportunities
Since the outbreak of the epidemic, non-contact remote thermometers, patrol drones, epidemic prevention robots and other Internet of Things products have been widely used in the prevention and control of the epidemic and the resumption of work and production. In 2121, these applications will be further upgraded and will play a role in medical care. Forrester's research predicts that the Internet of Things will realize active medical care participation through wearable devices and sensors, which will be a major trend in the application of the Internet of Things in 2121.
Forrester believes that consumers will get more kinds of wireless connections in 2121. Not only 5G and mobile IOT devices, but also Bluetooth, Zigbee and Near Field Communication (NFC) are all solving similar IOT use cases. Forrester's report pointed out that. Interaction and active participation, such as wearable devices and sensors, will proliferate, and they can detect the health status of patients at home. The medical care after COVID-19 will be dominated by digital medical experience and will improve the effectiveness of virtual medical care. The convenience of monitoring at home will stimulate consumers' appreciation and interest in digital health devices, because they can have a deeper understanding of their health. The price of digital medical equipment will become more consumer-friendly.
Due to the epidemic situation in COVID-19, many patients were forced to stay at home or delayed the necessary care, which made chronic diseases out of control and preventable diseases ignored. Medical institutions can use medical equipment connected to the Internet of Things to improve their understanding of patients' health and track the results of personalized medical care.
On the other hand, the utilization rate of smart office will also increase greatly. Forrester expects at least 81% companies to formulate comprehensive strategies for future offices, including IoT applications to enhance employee safety and improve resource efficiency, such as smart lighting, power supply, energy, environmental monitoring and sensor-based space utilization. Activity monitoring in high-traffic areas is necessary to give priority to site cleaning, manage crowded areas and modify office layout to achieve social alienation.