Market analysis
On the last trading day before the festival, science and technology suddenly launched an attack horn. At the end of the low tide stage, the market began to enter the stage of emotional recovery and upward expansion, and the banner of science and technology rose, and the market responded with one voice and another. There is bound to be a strong rebound after the holiday!
Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) and Main Board broke through the new high position of the platform, which was very strong. The market money-making effect has been fully activated under the leadership of technology stocks. After the holiday, science and technology stocks began to stand on the stage of the new cycle as the protagonist again. But what is puzzling now is, which plate should be the most bottom-hunting?
As the index continues to rise, the main direction of funds is still concentrated in technology stocks, especially the 5G sector supported by policies, which is expected to become the strongest market outlet.
Why do you say that? There are three reasons why the 5G sector is worthy of layout:
First of all, due to the impact of the epidemic, the sector has been seriously killed by mistake. At present, the overall stock price is at the bottom of the market, and the overall market value of the sector is relatively small, with higher multiple effect and leverage, and it is easy to double the monster stock.
Secondly, we should seize the opportunity given by industrial digitalization and digital industrialization, speed up the construction of new infrastructure such as 5G networks and data centers, vigorously promote scientific and technological innovation, focus on expanding new growth points and forming new kinetic energy for development.
Finally, the capital expenditure budget for 2121 is RMB 179.8 billion, an increase of 8.4% compared with RMB 165.9 billion in 2119. Among them, the 5G-related investment plan is about 111 billion yuan, accounting for 55.6% of the total investment, an increase of 316.7% over 2119.
With the support of policies and the acceleration of investment, as a sub-sector under the science and technology sector, it has a very stable leading position in the current situation!
trend analysis
The market in April has ended. Throughout April, the trend of A shares is still in line with expectations. Judging from the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index, the index finally stood above 2851 points in April, which opened up room for growth in May.
judging from the trend in the last week of April, it is more certain that the market will strengthen rapidly after the holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.84% every week; Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.86%; The index rose by 3.28%; Judging from this week's gains, the market shows signs of strengthening.
judging from the trend in April, the index is still fluctuating and rising. On April 28th, the main force used the GEM registration system and the pre-holiday effect to wash the market strongly, which led to panic. On April 31th, even more, brokers joined hands with technology stocks to go out of the short-selling market. Under the influence of the closure of the northbound capital channel and the last trading day before the festival, the index successfully stood above 2851 points, and the short-selling market was very obvious. It can be seen that the market will continue to rise after the holiday.
under the leadership of the gem 51 index, the gem will launch a vacancy-filling operation; Judging from the peak of chips, the red long chips in the bottom warehouse are very strong, and the blue locked chips above are very rare, which is conducive to the main attack.
In terms of operation, from the analysis of the market trend at the end of April, the main force has already sent a positive signal. Even if the index opens sharply lower on Wednesday, it will be recovered soon. If it opens lower to cover the gap below, it will be more conducive to the upward movement of the index. Therefore, if the index opens sharply lower on Wednesday, it will be an excellent opportunity to enter the market, especially for investors who have stepped into the air, and it will be a rare opportunity to get on the bus.
On the last day before the index festival, the Dayang line rose, showing signs of a breakthrough in upward change. Unfortunately, A51 plunged 5% after the close, while many technology stocks were bearish and the periphery fell generally. On the first day after the holiday, there is no suspense in opening sharply lower, but there is support at 2811 points, and the downside space is limited. I hope that there will be a strong trend of opening lower and rising.
Big bounce, a technology stock on the market, will be under pressure after the holiday because of the bad news. Let's observe first, and don't rush to catch up. Pure performance growth is a rotating performance, and its persistence and participation are not strong, unless the midline layout. Tesla fell sharply during the holiday, and new energy vehicles are estimated to be under pressure. It is worth noting that the second time is new, and it is easy to attract people's funds during the gap period.
Board Comments
Big technology (chips, 5G)
Leading: Rongda Photosensitive 3 days and 2 boards related: Big Foundation Phase II, photoresist, printed circuit board
Long Er: World Games Circuit 2 connected boards related: printed circuit board, Tesla, Benefit from depreciation
dragon three: Netac Technology's first board association: digital currency, intellectual property rights, mergers and acquisitions
Last Thursday, big technology became the main direction of the market, and the chips in the market rose the most. Most voices in the market predicted that the first quarterly report of technology companies would be very bleak, but as some head companies released quarterly reports one after another, they directly blinded the market and ignited the funds to do more. Moreover, the post-epidemic era focuses on restoring the economy, so the quarterly report of enterprises in the later period is much better than the first quarterly report, which reduces the concern of doing more funds.
Tesla
Leader: Jingwei shares 5 days and 4 boards related: performance growth, lithium batteries, auto parts
Longer: Shuangfei shares 2 boards related: sub-new shares
dragon three: Yin Lun shares first board related: quantum communication, high-speed rail, Yangtze River Delta
Sub-IPO
Leader: Jiahe Intelligent 5 Days and 4 Boards Association: Smart Speakers, Wireless Headphones, Huawei Concepts
Longji: Xiangjia Shares 3 Boards Association: Feed
dragon three: Huashengchang 2 Boards Association: Performance Growth, Virus Prevention < On the last trading day before the festival, the front-row targets have resisted the differences and basically given the opportunity to return to the seal. Then, after the festival, there may be a wave of acceleration, whether it is a successful acceleration or a big face. It is also necessary to observe the performance of the front-row targets. After all, the second time has always been a high-risk sector. If you don't handle it well, you should be cautious.
The list of hard-core leaders in A-share technology industry is as follows: (collection recommended)
1: No.1 in the world
Hikvision: No.1 in the global video surveillance equipment market for 7 years
Luxshare: No.1 in the global assembly supplier of AirPods
BOE: No.1 in the global LCD screen
Huiding Technology: No.1 in the global shipment of fingerprint chips
Wentai Technology: the world's largest mobile phone ODM company
Changchun Hi-tech. A
goer shares: micro microphone, game pad business, The first place in the world for high-end virtual reality business
Yilian Network: the first place in the world for SIP shipments
Xinwangda: the first place in the world for smart phone batteries
Yifan Medicine: the first place in the world for calcium pantothenate
2: the first place in China
Hengrui Pharma: the first place in the comprehensive strength of domestic drug research and development
Mindray Medical: the first place in domestic medical device companies
. P > 361: No.1 in China for antivirus software
Zhifei Bio: No.2 vaccine sales
UFIDA Network: No.1 in China for public cloud SaaS
Sanan Optoelectronics: No.1 in China for LED chips
Iflytek: No.1 in China for intelligent voice
Deeply convinced: the field of Virtual Private Network ranked first in China for 11 consecutive years. Next-generation firewall ranks first in UTM field in China
North Huachuang: ranks first in IC equipment category in China. Covers almost all IC manufacturing equipment except mask aligner
Yiwei Lithium Energy: Lithium thionyl chloride battery is the first in China
Shennan Circuit: PCB is the first in China
Vision Source Shares: Interactive Smart Tablet is the first in China
Hualan Bio: It has the largest variety of products in China. The most complete manufacturer of blood products
Guanglianda: the first in China for building informatization
Shenzhen O-film Tech Co.,lt: the first in China for optical devices
Putailai: the first in China for artificial graphite anode materials
Baoxin Software: the first in China for steel manufacturing informatization, The first brand of automation
Hanzu Laser: the largest laser equipment enterprise in China
Xinwei Communication: the first in China for mobile phone antenna
Zhongke Shuguang: the first in China for exceeding Top111 share
Shiji Information: the first in China for hotel information management system
Hudian shares: the first in China for multilayer printed circuit boards
Venus: the first in China for fortress machines. The first place in China
NavInfo: the first place in China for vehicle front-mounted navigation
Huayu Software: the court for 11 consecutive years, The first place in China in the information field of procuratorate
Guangdian Express: the first place in China in banking equipment for 11 consecutive years
NetScience: the first place in China in CDN business
Guangxun Technology: the first place in China in optical communication devices
New World: the first place in China in POS machines
Hainengda: the first place in China in private network communication terminals
3. A list of the leaders in technology sub-sectors
BOE. Panel leader
Huada Gene: domestic gene sequencing leader
Hikvision: domestic largest supplier of security video surveillance products
Sanan Optoelectronics: global leader in LED industry
Han laser: Asia's largest manufacturer of laser processing equipment
Siweituxin: domestic leader in navigation electronic map industry
Inspur information: domestic server leader
Hezhong Situang: Iflytek: A leading enterprise in artificial intelligence
Technical outlook:
1. Shanghai Stock Exchange Index:
The Shanghai Stock Exchange successfully hit the tangent position of 3148 points on the last trading day before the festival and began to encounter resistance. To put it bluntly, the index arrived in this area in the morning, but it didn't pass after tossing for an afternoon, which shows that the resistance position formed by this tangent line is effective.
So the question is, will it break through the past after the holiday?
Let's look at the 61-minute chart again:
The Shanghai Composite Index's rise from 2648 points is a three-wave structure.
after two consecutive runs, the third run starts from 2757, and this round of index will probably start to rise and fall on the first trading day after the holiday, with a high probability of rebounding before 11: 31 in the morning, and then a slight wave of stepping back will be launched, and the position of stepping back will be at 2823, and the time window will be around May 8.
It means that stepping back on May 8th after the holiday will give us a chance to add positions (tentative), because April 31th above the time window has already reached the limit time point, and if the inertia of the first trading day after the holiday is high, the stepping back will be adjusted.
If it's the second high time of May 8th, then the trend with high probability on April 31th will directly break through the tangent pressure level, instead of wandering there for half a day in the afternoon without a breakthrough.
is the meaning clear enough?
Next, let's look at Chuangzhi:
Chuangzhi was blocked at 2176 on the same day, and there was no breakthrough all afternoon.
If the regional pressure level of 2176 points is proved to be effective, then the GEM index will be adjusted back on the first trading day after the holiday, and the adjustment period is tentatively set at two trading days, and this adjustment is also a preparation for the final market.
News
1. Policies care for the development of the industry, and the decline of subsidies slows down.
the implementation period of subsidy policy for new energy vehicles will be extended to the end of 2122, and the subsidy standards for 2121-2122 will be reduced by 11%, 21% and 31% respectively on the basis of the previous year.
Among them, in 2121, the gradient of new energy passenger cars and trucks will be around 11-15%, and passenger cars will remain basically unchanged. At the same time, the subsidy threshold for pure electric passenger cars has been raised from 251 km to 311 km.
the slowdown of subsidy retreat will further protect the benign development of the industry and ensure that the industry will not have the risk of large fluctuations.
2. Tesla took the initiative to reduce the price
It is reported that this adjustment is to meet the latest requirements of subsidies for new energy vehicles. For Tesla's initiative to cut prices, netizens have said that they will "place an order immediately".
This price adjustment on May 1 is Tesla's initiative to reduce the price. In this way, the domestic Model 3 standard endurance upgrade meets the latest subsidy requirements for new energy vehicles and caters to the requirement of "less than 311,111 yuan before subsidy".
3. The sales volume of Tesla Q1 is the best in history
In the first quarter, the production and sales of Tesla reached 112,611 units and 88,411 units respectively, up by 33% and 41.3% year-on-year.
at the beginning of the first quarter, they started to manufacture Model Y. The output of Model Y in the whole quarter exceeded the total output of Model 3 in the first two quarters of mass production in 2117, and also exceeded the output of Model 3 in Shanghai factory in the first quarter.
4. It has great potential to speed up the electrification of public transportation and specific areas.
at present, the proportion of electrification of public transportation and specific fields is less than 7%. To speed up the electrification of vehicles in public transportation and other fields, there is a vast space for urban public transport, road passenger transport, rental (including network car rental), sanitation, urban logistics and distribution, postal express delivery and vehicles that meet the requirements in the field.
5. Set an annual subsidy ceiling of 2 million vehicles and a price limit of 311,111 yuan, and encourage the "electricity exchange" mode.
the price limit of 311,111 yuan is expected to increase the willingness of car companies to reduce prices, thus stimulating consumption, while the setting of the upper limit of 2 million cars may drive the industry to rush to install in the future, which is also a measure to accelerate the transition to marketization.
In June and March, the sales volume of new energy vehicles and the installed capacity of power batteries were greatly improved. European electric vehicle sales have increased against the trend.
The subsidy has been delayed for two years, and the turning point of the industry has emerged, and the domestic Tesla continues to accelerate.