Analysts believe that in the short term, although the retail price of domestic refined oil products is expected to open the reserve price protection, the realizable downward adjustment is still large, which still suppresses the later market. ?

International crude oil prices are once again in a downturn.

On September 9, the international crude oil market, which experienced a decline for many days, continued to slump. As of 05: 30 on that day, 10 WTI crude oil futures reported 36.73 USD/barrel, down 0.07%. Brent crude oil 165438+ 10 futures reported $39.73/barrel, down 0. 1 1%.

The night before, WTI crude oil futures 10 closed down 7.6%; Brent crude oil 165438+ 10 futures closed down 5.3%, and crude oil prices hit new lows since mid-June.

This round of crude oil prices fell again and hit a new low in more than two months. Analysts believe that the main influencing factors include the oversupply of crude oil market, the continuous spread of the global COVID-19 epidemic, the end of the summer driving peak in the United States, and reports that Saudi Arabia will cut the export price of crude oil in 5438+ 10. International oil prices fall again, and domestic refined oil prices and refining and chemical enterprises will also be affected.

0 1 WTI crude oil once plunged 9%, hitting a new low since mid-June.

On September 9, WTI crude oil futures 10 and Brent crude oil futures 1 10 continued the decline of the previous trading day. At 05: 30 on that day, WTI crude oil 65438+1October futures reported USD 36.73/barrel, down 0.07%, while Brent crude oil165438+1October futures reported USD 39.73/barrel, down 0.1barrel.

At noon on the 9th, most varieties in the domestic commodity futures market fell, among which chemicals fell the most. Crude oil fell by 8.02%, fuel oil fell by more than 5.6%, low sulfur fuel oil fell by more than 5%, asphalt fell by more than 4%, and No.20 rubber, methanol and PTA fell by more than 2%.

The day before, the price of crude oil had just plummeted, and both crude oil futures prices hit new lows since mid-June. WTI crude oil 65438+1October futures once plunged 9%, down 3.0 1 USD, while Brent crude oil165438+1October futures fell 2.23 USD, falling below 40 USD/barrel for the first time since June. Domestic commodity futures closed at night, and crude oil 10 contract also closed at the daily limit, down 8.02%. In the last five trading days, new york crude oil has fallen by 15% and oil distribution by nearly 13%.

Why did the international crude oil price enter the falling market again? Jinlianchuang crude oil analyst once told the Shell Financial Reporter of the Beijing News that although the oil price has surged to the highest level since March, with the focus of the market returning to the market fundamentals again, the negative pressure on the demand side has caused the oil price to continue to fall in recent days.

First of all, the Labor Day holiday in the United States has passed, marking the end of the summer fuel demand season in the United States. American refineries generally carry out equipment maintenance in autumn, which will affect the demand for crude oil to some extent. In addition, due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic this year, the demand for crude oil has been hit, so the negative pressure on the demand side will become more obvious after entering the off-season.

2. Saudi Aramco lowered the price of crude oil exported to Asia and the United States in June 10, which was the first time that the price of light oil exported to Asia was lowered since June. This sign shows that with the intensification of the global epidemic, the fuel demand of the world's largest oil exporter has wavered.

Thirdly, with the countries all over the world returning to work one after another, the negative impact of the COVID-19 epidemic is still hard to fade away. For example, India, one of the major crude oil demand countries, has not yet solved the spread of the epidemic, which also reflects to some extent that the prospect of demand recovery is still difficult in the context of the spread of the epidemic.

In the short term, the downward adjustment of domestic refined oil prices may still be large.

Affected by international oil prices, how will domestic refined oil prices change?

The next refined oil price adjustment window is at 24: 00 on September 18. According to Zhuo Chuang's calculation, as of the close of September 8, the change rate of reference crude oil on the third working day of the new round of domestic oil price adjustment was -8.04%, corresponding to the downward adjustment of gasoline and diesel by 320 yuan/ton. When the market generally believes that the current round of retail price reduction of refined oil products is a foregone conclusion, many market participants are worried about whether the floor mechanism will be adjusted because the price of crude oil in Europe and America has fallen below the floor price of $40/barrel.

According to the price adjustment law of the last round of floor mode, if the average price of crude oil falls below $40/barrel at the end of this pricing period, the domestic refined oil price will still be adjusted for the part above $40, and the part below $40 will not be adjusted for the time being. It is estimated that the domestic refined oil price may be lowered by 400 yuan/ton at the end of September 18 pricing period.

Jin Lianchuang, a senior analyst of refined oil products, told reporters that in the short term, although the domestic retail price of refined oil products is expected to open the reserve price protection, the redeemable downward adjustment is still large, which still suppresses the later market.

She said that in the early stage, downstream enterprises had more inventory. With the gradual decline of market conditions, enterprises begin to retreat and wait and see, and the overall buying and selling atmosphere will be light. However, in terms of diesel oil, autumn harvest and autumn planting will begin one after another in the northern region, and agricultural oil will rebound, which will form a strong support for market demand. The diesel market is relatively strong, but there is no obvious positive boost to the demand for gasoline for the time being, which will be relatively stable and the downward pressure on prices will be greater. In order to complete the sales task of the month, some main units increased their promotion efforts, and preferential policies and efforts were secretly increased. On the whole, the overall transaction price of gasoline and diesel market will fall in the near future, but considering the acceptable demand for diesel, the price decline will be less than that of gasoline.

Zhuo Chuang analysts believe that major market adjustments may be difficult to come, but small adjustments may become more frequent.

First consider the profit of the refining unit. Can the refining market in 2020 be used almost? Winter? Description, this is not difficult to find from the financial report of several barrels of oil. Reporter combing? Two barrels of oil? In the first quarter of this year, the financial report found that both companies were facing huge losses. The profit of China Petroleum in the first quarter was-65.438+0.623 billion yuan, down -258.36% year-on-year. The profit of China Petrochemical Company was-65.438+09.782 billion yuan, with a decrease of -234%. Zhuo Chuang said, from? Winter? Along the way, it is understandable that enterprises pursue profits. In addition, the psychological expectation of buying up and not buying down makes the sales unit have a strong willingness to hold the price even when the crude oil has fallen many times.

At the same time, the task of inventory cleaning is severe. If there is a large-scale price drop at this time, referring to the psychology of market participants, the risk of increasing the inventory of main units is great. Finally, under the imbalance between supply and demand, the role of price marketing is reduced. At present, the refined oil market is well supplied. Although the export volume of domestic refined oil products has increased since August, it is still rising in the later period, but it can not alleviate the current domestic inventory pressure. In the case of unbalanced supply and demand, the ability to adjust gasoline and diesel prices is weakened.