Then, the international oil price plummeted. Brent crude oil hit a minimum of 7 1.26 USD/barrel, with a decrease of 7.93%, while NYMEX crude oil hit a minimum of 67.75 USD/barrel, with a decrease of 7.82%. Behind the drop in oil prices, there are both economic reasons, historical factors and realistic conflicts. This is a war without smoke.
Who is behind the manipulation of oil prices? I think the answer to this question reflects international politics. The United States is the initiator behind the manipulation of oil prices. The purpose of the United States is simple and direct, that is, to impose economic sanctions on Russia through oil prices.
Russia is the second largest oil producer in the world after Saudi Arabia, and energy accounts for 70% of Russia's total exports. According to the research and analysis of relevant institutions, every time the crude oil price drops by 10, Russia will lose1900 million. In the year of low oil prices, the loss of Russian foreign exchange reserves exceeded $654.38 billion.
In fact, this is not the first time the United States has used oil price tactics. In the 1980s, the US government headed by President Reagan, together with Saudi Arabia and other countries, kept the oil price below 10 for a long time, which caused the Soviet Union, which was heavily dependent on oil and gas exports, to fall into a comprehensive predicament. Finally, the Soviet Union declared its disintegration in19,91year.
But the United States may not have thought that Russia is not the only victim of the continuous decline in oil prices. Other countries that mainly rely on exporting oil and lack economic diversification are also in jeopardy, and even the United States itself has been affected to some extent.
In the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, countries such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait can tolerate international oil prices as low as $60/barrel. But for Nigeria, Venezuela, Iran and other countries, only when the oil price is kept at 100 USD/barrel can the fiscal balance be guaranteed. Iran, in particular, relies on oil exports for half of its domestic income, and the current oil price is a disaster for its domestic finance.
Let's look at America again. In recent years, there has been a major breakthrough in shale oil reform in the United States, and American shale oil can be self-sufficient. However, according to institutional analysis, if the price of crude oil is $70/barrel, it is basically unprofitable for the United States to exploit shale oil; If it is $60/barrel, the US shale oil industry will completely collapse. Therefore, the decision of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) not to cut production will also be a tragic and heavy blow to the shale oil industry in the United States.
So who can benefit from this battle? We say that the beneficiaries are oil importing countries such as China and Japan. At present, China, as the largest energy consumer in the world, can take the opportunity to hoard crude oil and expand its strategic inventory of crude oil.
Recently, China released the strategic crude oil reserve data established in 2006-2009 for the first time. In the first stage, 9 1 10,000 barrels of crude oil have been reserved, which is equivalent to China's imports for two weeks.