Judging from the bond spreads between China and Germany, the conclusion is even more obvious. Before 2009, the spread center of Sino-German debt was -0.5%, that is, the yield of German debt was higher than that of Sino-German debt, while after the European debt crisis in 20 12, the spread center of Sino-German debt was 3%. Obviously, the European Central Bank adopted unconventional monetary policies such as QE and negative interest rate, which led to the passive expansion of the spread between China and Germany.
We believe that with the gradual normalization of monetary policies in the United States and Europe, the spreads between China and the United States and between China and Germany will gradually narrow and return to normalization. We can't take the spread level in the post-crisis unconventional monetary policy period as a reasonable spread level. The yield of American and German bonds will go up, while the yield of China bonds will go down.
In addition, from the perspective of exchange rate policy, there is no logic to maintain the spread to protect the exchange rate. If the overseas rate of return goes up and the interest rate in China bond market does not follow, it will lead to the pressure of RMB depreciation. However, judging from the current situation, it is obvious that there is pressure for RMB appreciation, not depreciation. Therefore, not only should China's interest rate not go up with the US debt rate, but it may be more reasonable for China's interest rate to come down and alleviate the expectation of RMB's excessive appreciation.
We believe that the spread of unconventional monetary policy between China and the United States in the post-crisis period should not be used as a reasonable level to measure the spread between China and the United States. From the perspective of exchange rate policy, there is no logic to protect the exchange rate by maintaining spreads. China bond market should not dance with overseas bond market. 20 18 the best and most certain opportunity is to buy interest rate bonds and ten-year government bonds with your eyes closed!
To sum up the full text, as "the first bull in China's bond market", Christina ·FICC channel lamented, are you still wondering about the arrival of "bond market spring"? We believe that there are five core reasons for "buying 10-year treasury bonds with eyes closed above 3.8": the downward pressure on the economy of 20 18 is huge, "high inflation" is alarmist, the marginal change of monetary policy and the liquidity inflection point have arrived, the peak of supervision on the bond market has passed, and the interest rate spread cannot restrict the bond market.
Christina FICC channel once again reiterated that the bond market has overshooted, the allocation value has been highlighted, the peak of regulatory influence has passed, and the bond yield will return to the value center. 20 18 the best and most certain opportunity is interest rate bonds, and reiterate that "close your eyes and buy 10-year government bonds above 3.8"!