1967165438+1October 18, the second devaluation of the pound after the war; March 1968, 17, the "golden pool" disintegrated; August 8 1969, franc devaluation11.11%.
1971August 15, US President Nixon delivered a televised speech, closing the golden window and stopping governments or central banks from holding US dollars for gold. The dollar broke free from the cage of gold and floated freely in the foreign exchange market.
1972, the price of gold in the London market rose from $46 per ounce to $64.
1973, gold price exceeded 100 USD.
From 1974 to 1977, the price of gold fluctuated between 130 and 180.
1978, crude oil soared to $30 per barrel and gold price rose to $244.
1979, the price of gold rose to $500. From June 5438 to 10, the inflation rate in the United States exceeded 12%.
Two trading days before 1 month, 1980, the price of gold reached $634, and US Treasury Secretary Miller announced that the Ministry of Finance would no longer sell gold. In less than 30 minutes, the price of gold rose by $30 to $7 15, and 1 month 2 1 day reached a new high of $850. US President Carter had to come out to suppress the gold market, saying that he would definitely safeguard the position of the United States in the world at all costs. At the close of the day, the price of gold fell by $50.
1February 22, 980, the price of gold plummeted 145 USD.
The first contemporary gold bull market came to an end in 12 years. The price of gold rose from $35 in 1968 to $850 in 1980. During the period of 12, there is 30% interest every year. 1980 gold investment reached $65,438 +0.6 trillion, exceeding the market value of US stocks of only $65,438 +0.4 trillion. 1959 investment in gold is only one-fifth of the market value of US stocks.
198 1 this year, the price of gold reached the peak of 599 dollars per ounce. By 1985, the market potential has dropped to about $300. From 65438 to 0987, after the U.S. stock market plunged, the price of gold peaked at $486, and then fell all the way.
1988 to 1999 gold market comments;
1February 8, 988: Last Friday, the price of gold closed at $439 per ounce, which made the gold friends feel a cold sweat, because the support point of the price of gold was just at this level. Technical analysis tells us that once it falls below this level, the price of gold will be in an unsupported state, and technical schools are not sure what price to fall to before it can stabilize. Eliot's theory shows that it is $ 180.
1August 20th, 988: Since investors are worried that the economic recession will come sooner or later, gold is an investment tool that cannot be ignored. When the stock market crashed in 1930s, the share price of Homestake, the most representative gold mine stock, rose from $7 in 1929 to $46 in 1932 (during which the Dow dropped by 90%).
65438+February 1 0989: The price of gold denominated in US dollars has dropped by 52% from the all-time high of1850 US dollars on October 20th. In this decade, the inflation rate in the United States has increased by 90%, and Japan, which is famous for its low inflation rate, is also at the level of 20%. This trend of gold shows that it has no ability to resist inflation, and gold should be removed from the "preserved goods" (interestingly, in terms of yen, the price of gold has dropped the most in this decade, reaching 75%. )。
In the 1980s, the weakness of interest-free cost of gold was highlighted. Because in the 1970s, the interest rates of bonds and banks were lower than the inflation rate, that is, the "negative interest rate", at this time, the interest-free of gold could be ignored. In the 1980s, bonds and other fixed-rate investment instruments provided higher returns than the inflation rate, which suddenly eclipsed the charm of gold.
1989 February 13: Famous paintings and antiques are interest-free products like gold and silver. Why did the price of the former skyrocket in the 1980s? The reason is that scarcity is precious. Famous paintings and antiques are often unique, but gold and silver can be produced continuously.
1989 165438+1October 15: the price of gold rose from $350 in mid-September to 39165438+1October 1.5.
1989 65438+February 9:1After the gold price reached US$ 427 on October 27, the news that the Soviet Union sold a lot of gold came out in the market, which made the market price fluctuate greatly. In fact, in the past ten years, as the second largest gold producer in the world, the rumor of "the Soviet Union selling gold" has played a huge role in the decline of gold prices.
The price of gold has nothing to do with the inflation rate. 198 1 year, the inflation rate in the United States rose by 8.9%, but the price of gold fell by 32% that year; 1986 The inflation rate dropped to 1. 1%, but the price of gold rose by 19% that year.
1May 24, 990: There was a sell-off in the market 18.7 tons (27,000 ounces per ton) of gold, which was brought out by American liquidators from savings and loan banks and finance companies that filed for bankruptcy, and the price of gold plummeted to $360.
1July, 990 12: 1989 new gold was crushed and integrated (cast into gold bars), and the total supply of gold was 2,723 tons. On the demand side, jewelry consumption 138 tons, electronic products consumption 138 tons, gold coins consumption 123 tons, and others (mainly physical gold holders) buy 65 1 ton.
The demand for jewelry gold accounts for 67% of the total gold supply, and the amount of jewelry gold in 1989 is 23% higher than that in 1988 1500 tons. Despite this, the price of gold is still low. During 1988, central banks bought and sold 285 tons of gold, while during 1989, the net selling volume was 255 tons.
Due to the decline of the Cold War, the effectiveness of gold as a political insurance has also disappeared, and gold that pays warehouse rent without interest may not be the choice of savvy investors.
1September 5, 990: When Iraq invaded Kuwait, the price of gold rebounded from $370 to $4 17, and then returned to $383. Due to the increasingly serious fiscal deficit in the United States, the shaky exchange rate of the US dollar and the imminent global credit crisis, the price of gold tends to be close to the "neck line" of 500 US dollars for a long time. Once it reaches $500, the lowest increase can make the price of gold reach $700, with a median of $850 and a maximum of 1 000.
199 1 year 65438+1October12nd: 2 1 century is "cash is king", which is very different from the "cash is garbage" in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Gold has become a heavy commodity. However, the price of gold may still rebound sharply.
1991June 13: gold and silver rose together, but for different reasons. In March, the price of an ounce of silver fell below $4, less than one tenth of the highest price, because people thought that the supply of silver exceeded demand. However, in mid-May, an American institution thought that the demand for silver just exceeded the supply. 199 1 year silver output is 4.8 1 100 million ounces, while the demand reaches 590 million ounces. So silver rose sharply, reaching a maximum of $4.64. Trend school pointed out that the weak watershed of silver is $4.22, which has entered an upward track.
As for gold, it is extremely changeable. Most institutional investors have no gold in their portfolios. Kemper, a large American mutual fund, dissolved the gold fund last month. Washington Spokane Stock Exchange, which buys and sells gold mine stocks, announced its temporary closure, and so on. People finally started to operate in the opposite direction, which made the price of gold rebound.
There is also a "fear index" which is also very interesting. An investment consultant in the United States made a fear index based on the relationship between the current deposit price of the Federal Reserve and the supply of dollars (M3). At the end of May, the price of gold per ounce was $360.75, the Federal Reserve deposited 2.6 19 billion ounces, and the circulation of M3 was 4.076 billion, equal to $226 per hundred dollars. This is a fear index of 2.26, which is close to the record of 2 points set by Nixon when he announced the abolition of the gold standard in 197 1. The gold content of the US dollar is 2.26%, which means that the remaining 97.7% of the US dollar is supported by the credit of the US government, which is heavily in debt, and this 97.74 US dollar is borrowed. So, people throw dollars to buy gold. The highest point of the fear index is 10, which is at the golden historical price of 1980.
1994 10.08: the price of suits in the famous tailor street in Britain has been five or six ounces of gold for hundreds of years, which proves that the purchasing power of gold has remained unchanged for a long time. If the price of gold per ounce exceeds $396, the next target is $406. Once this level is broken, a bull market for gold is born, which can be regarded as 1200 USD.
1February 5, 996: Last Friday, the price of gold rose to $4 18.5, which broke through the high price of $409 of 1993. Technical experts believe that once this level is broken, the price of gold may break $445.
The central bank not only sells gold, but also rents. In terms of selling gold, the highest 1992 sold 600 tons, and 1995 estimated 3000 tons. Gold merchants are bearish on the future gold price, so they try to rent it from the central bank that stores a large amount of gold for three to five years, and then sell it in the market. For gold miners, this is nothing more than selling the gold produced three to five years later at the current price, which is equivalent to cashing in the future profits first, while the central bank "revitalizes" assets. According to the data released by the Bank of England in early February, 12, only London gold traders rented 1500 tons from the central bank.
If you don't count the central bank and the sale of gold, the rest is already in short supply. The output of gold in 1995 and 1994 is almost the same, which is 2,787 tons, while the consumption level is 40,000 tons, and the gold deficit is between 1 100 tons and 1200 tons.
1July 8, 997: Western central banks cut gold reserves in an orderly manner. According to the data, the Dutch central bank directly sells gold, Belgium mints gold coins to sell gold in disguise, and the Swiss central bank plans to sell gold worth about 5 billion US dollars in stages to establish "Holocaust Gold" to show the country's remorse for doing Nazi business during World War II. Last Thursday, Australia announced that it had sold gold worth about1700 million dollars in the first half of this year. Although the amount of gold sold is small, it accounts for two-thirds of the country's gold reserves, indicating that gold is no longer regarded as the main currency and reserve. Australia is the third largest gold producer in the world after South Africa and the United States.
As a result, the dollar price of an ounce of gold hovered between $370 and $400 for about two years. Last Thursday, the new york market plummeted, and on Friday, London fell to $324.75, the lowest level since 1985.
1March 24th, 998: The price of gold per ounce fell to the lowest price of $278.7 on June 9th, 65438, and hovered around $294 yesterday. Gold flourishes and declines, and its market price is lower than the average production cost of 3 15 USD per ounce. Half of the gold mines in the world are losing money, and it is inevitable to stop work one after another. This makes the newly unearthed gold in recent two years in short supply, and the supply of refined gold is less than the demand 1000 tons. It is only because in the bleak prospect of gold price, the central bank's gold throwing and private gold hiding have been sold out one after another, and the downward trend of gold price cannot be reversed.
Canada's Yujindao Gold Mine plans to cast Genesis gold coins on a large scale, and plans to use 1000 tons to 2,500 tons of gold to make this gold coin. If the plan is implemented, it will be the most expensive gold coin casting, because in the past, Krugman gold coins in South Africa consumed 1400 tons, Hirohito gold coins in Japan consumed 1986 tons, and Akihito gold coins consumed 199 1 60 tons. For the gold market, this is a big plus. In 20 12, central banks sold 825 tons of gold, and the "Genesis Gold Coin" will be completely digested.
1July 6, 999: On Tuesday, the Bank of England sold 25 tons of gold at the price of $2,665,438 +0.2 per ounce, raising $209.8 million, which was the first auction by the Bank of England in the past two decades and the first of five auctions by the Bank. Since Britain announced its plan to sell 4 15 tons of its 7 15 tons gold reserve in the next 3 to 5 years, the price of gold has fallen by more than 10%. After the news was announced, the price of gold immediately fell below $260, reaching $256.4, a 20-year low.
Gold will not lose its "eternal value" out of thin air, leaving a curse on the market. Because the gold that has survived for thousands of years is estimated to be125,000 tons, about one third of which is in the vaults of central banks, and the rest is private gold and jewelry.
On the one hand, the central bank is selling heavily (the Swiss National Bank also plans to sell about 1300 tons of gold), on the other hand, gold miners are increasing. There are two reasons: first, the unit production cost of gold has dropped from 65,438 to 0,998, down by 20%, and the average production cost per ounce is only $206; Secondly, mining companies have developed a production mode of "mainly producing copper, supplemented by producing gold". It is estimated that by-product gold will account for 9% of the total gold output in 2005, and will increase to 17%. Gold with brass means that mines will not increasingly link gold production with price.
It is estimated that the price of gold will reach 150 at the beginning of the next century, and the price of gold really does not depend on Woody. As a monetary commodity or even a pure commodity, gold has lost its value of "long-term holding", which investors have to admit and attach importance to.
Market supply and demand and market price influence each other.
Judging from the actual demand, the supply of gold is in short supply, and the annual gap is around 1000 tons. However, the reserve trading of central banks in various countries chased up and down, making the gold market in short supply. The law of "the lower the gold falls, the greater the possibility of selling official gold". With the rising price of gold, from $375 in 1982 to about $500 after the crash of 1987, few central banks sold gold. After that, gold turned around again, falling from 1992 to around $350. During this period, the central bank cleared 500 tons of gold. From 1992 to 1999, gold fell below $300, and central banks sold about 3,000 tons of gold, about 400 tons a year. Central banks finally found that the enemy was themselves. As long as there is an excess of official funds held by the central bank, every time the official funds are sold, it will become the headline news, and the price of gold will fall, and the income from selling will also decrease accordingly.
The fall in the price of gold may have stimulated its actual demand. In 1990, the gold used in jewelry and electronics industry is more than 50% higher than that in 1980 and about one third higher than that in 1994. The gold used in jewelry making alone is 1850 times higher than 100 times. Because during this period, the population only increased five times, and the per capita consumption of gold ornaments increased twenty times.
1On August 26th, 999, the price of gold per ounce fell to $2,565,438 +0.9, the lowest in 20 years. After two years at the bottom, the price of 200 1 rose again, reaching 4 14 USD by the end of 2003, with an increase of 60%.