The emergence of commercial real estate
According to the relevant information of Xinhua News Agency, in recent years, newly-built large shopping centers are rapidly becoming the main force in the commercial retail market in many cities, and traditional commercial properties have been unable to meet their requirements for hardware and software, which has left a huge market gap for the real estate industry, so commercial real estate enterprises that integrate traditional circulation industry and real estate industry came into being.
Development of commercial real estate
It is understood that during the period from January to February in 2008, the national real estate investment reached 237.4 billion yuan, accounting for 50.3% of the investment in the tertiary industry, up 3.9 percentage points year-on-year. Real estate investment increased by 32.9% year-on-year, with an increase of 8.6 percentage points. In February 2008, the sales price of houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities nationwide increased by 10.9% year-on-year, down 0.4 percentage points from June. It rose by 0.2% month-on-month, and the growth rate was 0. 1 percentage point lower than that in June.
In 2007, the investment in China commercial real estate market increased steadily. The total investment in commercial housing in China was 277.556 billion yuan, up by 17.9% year-on-year, and remained at around 17% for three consecutive years. This is very close to the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods 16.8%. In 2007, China's commercial real estate industry also had two characteristics: First, there was no obvious ups and downs in the supply relationship of commercial real estate in major large and medium-sized cities, and the market price was relatively stable. Second, the regional differences in market structure. Taking the investment growth rate in 2007 as an example, Beijing was slightly higher than 10%, Shanghai was 2.5%, and Tianjin was 78%. This is because the Beijing Olympic Games is expected to be digested in advance, Shanghai's commercial development is saturated, and Tianjin has the development concept of Binhai New Area.
Problems existing in real estate development
With the large-scale comprehensive shopping centers represented by American Moore settled in Beijing, Shenzhen and other large and medium-sized cities, China's retail industry has been fully opened to the outside world, and almost all large and medium-sized cities have built or planned to build large-scale shopping centers, which has left a huge market development space for the development of commercial real estate developers. Commercial real estate, as a kind of real estate form which is different from the traditional store leasing form and characterized by the comprehensive integration of real estate and commerce, is quietly becoming the new favorite of the real estate market. However, with this round of investment boom in commercial real estate in China, shops, shopping centers, office buildings and industrial real estate have been overexploited in some major cities, which has greatly increased the market risk crisis.
According to market research, the commercial real estate in China is overheated. While the supply of commercial business area is increasing rapidly, the vacancy rate is also rising. Since 2008, the situation of oversupply of shops has continued to develop. These conditions mean that China's commercial real estate has entered a period in which risks and opportunities coexist, and will soon be put to a double test.
At present, the development of commercial enterprises in China has changed greatly, and the concentration of enterprises in the retail market has been further improved, further affecting the market structure of upstream manufacturers and wholesalers. However, the competition among mature large retailers is developing towards "quality". At the same time, while expanding market share, foreign-funded circulation enterprises are also infiltrating into the upstream of circulation links; The development of circulation related industries is also facing further reshuffle, focusing on the commercial real estate field that spans circulation and real estate. In the era of retailers' development and quality, commercial real estate developers will fall into development difficulties if they continue to simply compete for quantity and area and neglect professional services to retailers' customers.
At present, the commercial real estate in China has entered a risk period, with the trend of more and more construction, more and more overseas construction and narrower construction. The main performance is that the total volume is close to saturation, the structure is unbalanced in many aspects, the bubble is prominent, and the vacancy rate is rising. In actual development, many developers often pay one-sided attention to the attraction of retail stores to the whole commercial space, and blindly emphasize spaciousness and luxury. Not only did it raise the price of the bottom business, but it also raised the price of the whole commercial real estate (including apartments, writing rooms, etc.). ), leading to the imbalance of commercial real estate structure, reduced demand for rent and purchase, and increased vacancy rate. Retail business is too concentrated on developing shopping centers, and those who have the conditions are rushing to do it quickly, which has led to the blooming of shopping centers in many cities across the country.
According to statistics from relevant departments, more than 40 cities add more than 80 shopping centers every year, but some cities with a population of only over 200,000 have built several shopping centers. Some shopping centers only have a daily flow of nearly 1 1,000 yuan. Many shopping centers have no market, no business, no jobs, and many of them have closed down, turning losses into profits and wasting a lot of investment.
The relationship between real estate and finance
In the case that commercial real estate is widely valued, the financial risk will be even greater. Financial risks come from two aspects. The first is the risk of RMB appreciation. Due to the appreciation, many international hot money and some funds will invest in commercial real estate in China. However, once these capitals reach the target income, the commercial real estate market will collapse after withdrawing funds. The second is to raise interest rates. At present, China is in the channel of raising interest rates. The consequences of raising interest rates may lead to high investment cost of commercial real estate development, decreased development profit or heavy interest burden of investment loans (mortgages), making it impossible to build shops, resulting in less investment in shops. The developers' financial difficulties will transfer the risks to the banks.
The difference between commercial housing and residence
Commercial housing is different from residential housing. Buying commercial housing has strong investment and high operational risks, and commercial banks bear greater risks when issuing commercial housing loans. In the context of the current rapid rise in real estate prices, the CBRC issued regulations to further prevent the risk of commercial housing loans.
The key to dealing with real estate problems
A series of problems caused by real estate problems.
First of all, banks should be cautious in issuing commercial housing loans and credit business related to commercial housing. Due to the rapid decline of investment growth rate of commercial business buildings and the increase of vacant space, the investment risk of commercial real estate is higher than that of residential investment as a whole. It is particularly noteworthy that China's commercial retail industry has entered the era of meager profit, and the meager commercial profit is often difficult to support the high rental expenses of shopping malls, and the profit space for developers to invest in shops is extremely limited. Therefore, in addition to cautiously intervening in the development of high-quality properties in the central areas of eastern megacities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, we should also strictly control the investment of credit funds in commercial real estate development, especially in the development of large shops. At the same time, because China's office investment is mainly concentrated in five provinces and cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Jiangsu, these cities basically dominate the national office market, so they are the key areas for commercial banks to expand office credit business.
Secondly, focus on developing the credit business of advantageous enterprises with strong profitability, seize the opportunity of asset restructuring in the industry, and rationally adjust the customer structure. In recent years, the operating efficiency of real estate development enterprises is divided, and most enterprises are at a low profit level. Commercial banks should selectively develop real estate credit customers. Increase credit support for leading enterprises with outstanding main business advantages, strong profitability, high qualification level, good credit record and land, brand and management advantages, strive to establish long-term strategic cooperative relations with them, and prudently intervene in real estate development projects of enterprise groups that have entered the real estate industry for a short time and do not focus on real estate development.
Finally, pay attention to various forms of asset reorganization of real estate enterprises. Because this is both an opportunity and a challenge for the development of commercial banks. From the positive impact, asset reorganization around revitalizing land resources, enterprise strategic transformation and business structure adjustment not only created conditions for the development of advantageous enterprises, but also digested some enterprises with serious losses and low efficiency. It is conducive to optimizing target customers, optimizing credit asset structure and improving asset quality. From the negative impact, some enterprises use asset restructuring to evade bank debts, which will lead to huge losses of credit assets. In order to prevent the emergence of non-performing assets, some enterprises with poor operating performance and facing merger or bankruptcy should be highly valued by commercial banks, and it is urgent to restructure credit assets around these enterprises.