The secret military plan determines that in the European atmosphere of 19 14, any crisis that cannot be solved by wise diplomatic means will lead to all-out war. There are precedents for solving the crisis by wise diplomatic means, especially in the quarrel between big powers about Africa and the anxiety caused by the Balkan war1912-1913. But these crises only involve national interests and have nothing to do with national honor and prestige. Austria-Hungary is the most sensitive to national honor among the European powers, because it is the weakest one among the powers. 19 14 In June, his heir to the throne was assassinated, which touched his nerves. The assassin thinks he belongs to the country's most subversive foreign neighbor. Austro-Hungarian Empire is a political system with five major religions and more than a dozen different languages, and it suffers from the fear of racial subversion. The most important subversive factor comes from Serbia, a militant and slow-developing Christian kingdom, which won its independence from the Ottoman Empire after centuries of rebellion. After independence, Serbia did not cover all Serbs. Due to historical reasons, a large number of ethnic minorities have become the main body of Austria. Those nationalists hated the rule of the Habsburg dynasty, just as their freed brothers used to hate being ruled by the Ottomans. The most extreme elements among them are ready to kill. It was one of these people who assassinated the heir of the Habsburg dynasty and provoked the fatal crisis in the summer of 19 14.

19 14, the summer exercise of Habsburg troops was held in Bosnia, which was once the province of the Ottoman Turkish Empire. /kloc-0 was occupied by Austria in 878, and/kloc-0 became a part of the empire in 908. On June 25th, Franz Ferdinand, nephew and army director of Emperor Flantz Joseph, visited Bosnia. After the exercise, on June 27th, he and his wife arrived in Sarajevo, the capital of the province, for an official visit the next morning. The choice of this date is unpleasant: June 28th is the anniversary of 1389, when Serbs lost to Turks. Serbs call this day Widoff Dan, and they think it is the beginning of a long history of foreign oppression. [1] After the withdrawal of Ottoman Turkey, in the eyes of Serbian Democrats, the role of oppressor was assumed by Habsburg people, and the provincial authorities were warned that the Crown Prince's visit was unwelcome and probably very dangerous. Ferdinand ignored this warning; At that time, threats to great men were common. A czar, an Austrian queen and an American president were assassinated by fanatics or lunatics. In this case, an assassination team was prepared, including five Serbian youths and a Bosnian * * *, who was recruited by the * * * conspirators to do superficial work. They are all equipped with bombs and pistols. On the way to the Governor's Office, a * * * threw a bomb at the Dagong couple's car, but the bomb bounced off the car behind, injuring an officer. A group of royals moved on. However, forty-five minutes later, when visiting the wounded on the way, the driver of Dagong and his wife took a wrong turn and stopped for a while when turning around. This makes the car face an undiscovered schemer, Gaffry Princip, who is carrying a revolver. He stepped forward and shot. Dagong's wife died immediately, and Dagong died ten minutes later. Princip was arrested on the spot.

The survey results show that although these * * * are Austrian citizens, they were armed by Serbian nationalist organizations in Serbia and smuggled across the Austrian border. Austrian investigators believe that they belong to "Narodna Odbrana", which was founded in 1908 to resist the integration of Bosnia into the Austrian Empire. It is the creed of the nationalist program to firmly believe that Bosnia belongs to Serbs in history. But in fact, what should be responsible for this is the secret organization "alliance or death", which is generally called "black hand society". This misunderstanding is not important, because the members of these two groups cross each other, and Bosnia's "national self-defense organization" helps the black-handed society. The latter organization is more dangerous because it aims at "the unification of Serbia" and requires new members to swear allegiance to the death. More importantly, it is led by Serbian Colonel with code name "Apis" and is responsible for the intelligence department of the General Staff.

After all, how much Serbia knows about this conspiracy has never been determined; The world of intelligence is always dark, as always, but at that time, uniformed soldiers generally participated in it, as the Dreyfus incident revealed. "God Bull", or more appropriately, Colonel Dragutin Dimitrijevic, is both a soldier and a revolutionary, and some of them may lead a double life. He participated in 1903' s ruthless overthrow of Oblenovic dynasty. Regardless of the facts, by July 2, three members of the assassination team confessed; This shows that they obtained weapons from Serbian military factories and crossed the border with the help of Serbian border guards. This information is enough for Austria to further confirm Serbia's deep-rooted belief that it bears a grudge; It also aroused its inner desire to punish this small kingdom that disturbed the internal order of the empire.

Slavs issue is one of the most influential issues of the empire in minority areas. Among these difficulties, the Serbian issue is a positive and increasingly serious threat. Poles' problems were alleviated by sharing the ancient kingdom of Poland with Germany and Russia, Czechs' problems were alleviated by the serious Germanization of their cities, and crozet's problems were alleviated by Catholicism, but it seems that nothing can alleviate Serbs' problems except force. Their Orthodox faith makes them a religious and nationalist minority, and Russia will undoubtedly protect them from the standpoint of the guardian of the Orthodox Church. Long-term guerrilla resistance to Turkish rule has made them persevering and self-reliant, but in the eyes of Austria, this is scheming and untrustworthy; Poverty made them fight bravely. The Kingdom of Serbia is extremely aggressive. They won independence in 18 13 with their own efforts, and won honor and territory in the Balkan War in1812-13. The rebirth of the country aroused the belief of "Greater Serbia": this country is powerful and a beacon for Bosnian and Croatian Serbs. Austria has to be hostile to it, because it is not only a Serb, but also a member of many ethnic minorities in these areas, and Austria cannot yield to any of them. Concessions are not only strategically unacceptable, but also unbearable for the imperial system itself. This system is barely maintained by denying the value of national independence as a political idea. Making concessions to the independence of one nation soon will also lead to making concessions to the independence of other nations, thus bringing about the disintegration of the empire itself.