Its predecessor began in the 1990 s and was the product of a typical sea wave at that time. It has experienced a complete economic cycle, the Great Depression and the Great Crisis. It had vision and courage that most manufacturing industries didn't have at that time. It abandoned the low-end processing market, engaged in research and development, invested huge sums of money, squeezed into the ranks of fruit chain OEM, and became a world-class precision manufacturing; I have also suffered from the OEM of "Making Wedding Dresses for Other Girls", and I have been busy with high income and low return, so I strive to win products with R&D, production and independent brand ability for myself in the next era.
However, limited by the inevitable law of intergenerational replacement of entrepreneurs, his vision and pattern failed to keep up with the rhythm of the times. He sold the assets that may win his position in the next era, proudly got rid of the restrictions of the fruit chain and embraced the legs of another big foundry. The intention of this paper is not only to lament the regret of such a sample story, but to look at the relationship between capital and industry from the perspective of opportunities and challenges of China manufacturing in the meta-cosmic industrial chain. Through Goer 202 1 annual report, we still see some clues, which are worthy of vigilance.
Capital logic
The capital market once abandoned Goer shares, but why did it collectively pursue Goer shares? This matter should start with the gains and losses of Goer shares in the fruit chain foundry.
The income of Goer shares is basically concentrated in the hands of the top five customers, and the first customer is Apple. On 20 10, Goer became an Apple supplier and has been relying on Apple business for many years. Goer's market income and its share price changes in the secondary market are closely related to the market situation of Apple's industrial chain. However, the supply and demand of Apple's industrial chain is not stable. After years of high growth, the consumer electronics industry is weak, especially the mobile phone market. In 20 18, the global shipments of iPhoneX and iPhone8 launched by Apple declined, which led to the sharp drop in the revenue and share price of Goer, and the share price returned to the level of 20 10 overnight.
The contradiction that Goer shares are subject to the fruit chain has always been prominent, but the impact of competitors has aggravated Apple's difficult situation in the fruit chain industry chain. Also in 20 18, Apple introduced Luxshare as a new supplier of acoustic devices, which changed the situation that Goer shares and AAC Technologies shared the world equally, and the market share of Goer shares was eroded by the three pillars.
20 18 capital market gives bad reviews according to Goer's position and performance in the fruit chain. The logic behind this is very clear. It is the capital market that sees the ceiling of Goer shares-supporting Luxshare to weaken the bargaining power of foundries without strong voice; And by transferring the industrial chain to Southeast Asia, we can suppress the mainland's quotation as a whole. The industrial chain participation of downstream foundries such as Goer shares, which survive in the shadow of Apple, is extremely high, and even in a sense, Apple has become their shackles.
From June 5438 to February 2020, nearly half of the municipal government of Qingdao attended the launching ceremony of "Goer Global R&D Headquarters". This building means a new generation of information technology industry for Qingdao. Jiang Bin, the owner of this building, promised Qingdao that he would build a national and even world-class information technology research and development highland and become the main position of Goer's virtual reality/augmented reality (VR). This is the business transformation that Goer shares began to vigorously promote in the second year after the 20 18 fiasco-shifting the parts business to wearable devices and strengthening the VR business.
20021semi-annual report (when 20021annual report was published) showed that the revenue of intelligent hardware in this period was11200 million yuan, up by 2 10.83% year-on-year, and the revenue accounted for 23. 16%. Goer shares also returned to the market value of 100 billion. Goer's 20021annual report released on the evening of March 29th, 2022 shows that Goer's annual operating income in 2002/kloc-0 was 78.2265438 billion yuan, up 35.47% year-on-year. The net profit was 4.275 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.09%. Among them, the revenue of 25.4 billion in the fourth quarter increased by less than 65,438+00% year-on-year. In the context of the rapid growth of intelligent hardware represented by VR, this revenue growth rate is obviously less than expected. Moreover, the revenue of intelligent hardware is as high as 32.8 billion, but the increase in the big market is not as optimistic as expected. According to IDC statistics, in 20021year, the global shipment of VR virtual reality products was about 9.36 million units, up about 68.6% year-on-year, and the global shipment of ar augmented reality products was about 330,000 units, up about 13.8% year-on-year. It looks ok, but the shipment of 9.36 million units is far below 1
However, under the difficult situation of the fruit chain industry, it can still be said that good luck has come to Goer shares. The VR industry laid out by Goer shares many years ago was deeply questioned and vomited by investors after the false fire of about 20 15. This time, it is a life-and-death struggle with great pressure and risk under the dilemma of the fruit chain industry chain. Fortunately, the rise of the concept of meta-universe comes at the right time. Goer shares, which are laid out in advance, have the opportunity to become the foundry of the super-cosmic giant Meta (formerly Facebook).
Goer shares occupy the vast majority of OEM shares of mainstream VR headsets such as Meta (original Facebook) Oculus products and PSVR, and Oculus product series is the largest product line in the global VR all-in-one market at present, so the capital market predicts that this will support Goer shares' growth space in intelligent hardware revenue. Judging from the OEM industry and revenue alone, this judgment is not wrong. The forecast given by IDC, an international data company, can also prove that the market shipment of VR/AR equipment will be about 76.7 million units by 2024, with a compound growth rate of over 80%.
For the traditional capital market, they will think that if Goer shares can continue to maintain the exclusive supply relationship of Meta (original Facebook), it is expected to replicate the miracle of airpods and find the next fulcrum; This means that Goer shares got rid of the shadow of the fruit chain through VR. In August last year 15, Jiang Bin, chairman of goer, gave the market another confidence at the 202 1 microdisplay optical technology conference, saying that goer has occupied 70% of the global mid-to-high-end AR/VR market, has the world-leading 12-inch nano-imprint lithography production line, and will become the world-leading AR/VR industrial base.
Based on the above analysis and judgment, the capital market is driven by the wind. On August 27th, 277 institutions went to Goer for investigation. 202 1 semi-annual report shows that the number of holding institutions has greatly increased from 77 in the first quarter to 92 1. It can be seen that the capital market is crazy about Goer shares. Among the top ten tradable shareholders, the new shareholders in the second quarter include the research selection of E Fund managed by star fund manager Feng Bo, the combination of National Social Security Fund 103 and the combination of National Social Security Fund 60 1.
The whole story of self-waste.
After graduating from Beihang University, Jiang Bin was assigned to work in Shandong Weifang No.8 Radio Factory and became a technician in the microphone workshop. At that time, Jiang Bin traveled around and saw that the charm of the market was much greater than that of the workshop. However, Weifang No.8 Radio Factory quickly closed down due to poor management, which coincided with the entrepreneurial tide in the 1990s, and Jiang Bin also became a member of the tide. The first venture was very successful. Jiang Bin and his partners were very skilled, and the company soon made money. But when Jiang Bin advocated using the money he earned to put into production and expand the scale, no one supported him and the company was dissolved. Jiang Bin started his own business. 200 1 Set up your own company and establish Goer shares.
Jiang Bin, who has a technical background and is well informed, shows the qualities of outstanding entrepreneurs in this era. Goer started with the most familiar microphone, but he soon found that the low-end market was poorly dispersed, decisively cut off 80% of customers, and concentrated superior resources and strength to build the most advanced anechoic room in the industry at that time. He later said in an interview about his mentality at that time, "(You have to) have the courage to die. There is no second child in this industry, you have to be the ultimate. " He asked Goer to focus on a product and do it thoroughly, so that the quality of the product can be comparable to that of some advanced developed countries in the world. He gave full play to his talents and learned from Panasonic, his big brother who was meaningless in the microphone industry at that time, and was willing to invest in research and development. In 2004, Goer developed the first Bluetooth headset, which became the best product in China at that time. Therefore, Jiang Bin is called "Bluetooth Brother".
However, OEM is still the most important revenue business of Goer shares in this era. The customer base of Goer shares includes many well-known enterprises such as Apple, Samsung, Huawei, Xiaomi, Hewlett-Packard and Lenovo. In the following years, it developed smoothly. In 2008, Goer became the first information industry listed company in Shandong Province. In 20 10, the smart phone industry began an unprecedented development climax. Goer shares became Apple's foundry, producing electronic acoustic products such as Bluetooth and miniature microphones for Apple. By the end of this year, the market value of Goer shares exceeded 20 billion. In the following eight years, the share price of Goer shares climbed steadily, and the market revenue also hit record highs. But as mentioned above, 20 18 began to highlight the constraints of fruit chain foundries and got into trouble. This is the business transformation mentioned above. However, in the context of the development of this enterprise, the transformation of wearable devices represented by ARVR is the next development direction of Goer after careful consideration by Jiang Bin, and it is also a "great company" for Goer to get rid of the shadow of Apple, get rid of the foundry and move towards the integration of R&D, manufacturing and brand.
We can use this to sort out the VR growth path of Goer shares. In 20 13, Sony VR glasses Playstation OEM order was signed; During this period, Jiang Bin has been paying attention to the future development trend of the global VR market, which is not ahead of schedule; 20 14, Goer took a stake in Songsong Optics and set foot in VR lens; 20 15 acquired AM3D, a Danish audio technology company with 3D sound enhancement and surround sound algorithm; More importantly, this year Goer shares also hatched a bird to see. With its own brand pico, it has comprehensive capabilities in technology research and development, brand production and content, and has opened up the layout of "hardware+software" and "B-side +C-side".
Take stock of the ups and downs of the whole VR market in recent years, and you will understand that Jiang Bin is less than 50 years old at this time, with a little foresight and a little stubbornness. 20 14, Facebook acquired Oculus to "lay out the future". Under the leadership of Facebook, Google, Samsung, Microsoft, HTC and Sony entered the market one after another. This year is also called "the first year of VR". However, the industrial development is not yet mature, and technologies such as information transmission, 3D vertigo and screen immersion cannot support the VR experience. Content companies have also withdrawn, and the VR industry chain has quickly fallen into a landslide recession. This period coincides with the difficulties of Goer shares in the fruit chain. Look at the burden of establishing Goer shares. From 20 14 to 20 19, the profit contribution of VR is very small, which also caused dissatisfaction among investors. On the investor platform, he questioned why Goer's stock went its own way on a road doomed to see no light.
In combination with the above, Goer shares, like other fruit chain foundries, are facing the problem of getting rid of the shadow of apple, but no one is sure which direction to go. Compared with Chery, Goer's layout seems to be better. In 2020, Goer shares received Oculus' new generation VR single supply order; 202 1, Goer increased his holdings of Birdie, with a shareholding ratio of 42%. With the revenue and cash flow brought by OEM and the control of the whole industrial chain, Goer shares seem to be the first in the big industrial layout built by the meta-universe, leading the pulse of the new era. However, on August 29th, 20021year, Bird Watch was sold, and the shareholding ratio of Beijing Xingyun Chuangji Technology Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of ByteDance, was 90.87%.
If we must carefully study the logic of selling Goer shares, it is to ensure the OEM order of Meta (original Facebook) at the expense of independent research and development and brand bird-before the sale, Goer shares were the largest foundry of Oculus and the major shareholder and foundry of pico; Pico is a direct competitor of Oculus. As the curtain of the Meta-cosmic era slowly opened, Goer, a leading company, gave up its layout for many years and returned to the fate of a domestic manufacturing foundry.
Wrong and wrong.
We can only sigh that Boss Jiang, born in 1966, saw a beam of light from the next era, but he didn't have the courage and determination to meet and face it. Before selling the assets of VR technology research and development and independent brand integration, Mr. Jiang and his relatives have been quietly cashing out, accumulating 7 billion, which is three times more than the accumulated dividend. What is the logic behind this?
On June 5438+February 3, 20201day, Goer Group announced that it was going to issue 2.5 billion yuan of exchangeable bonds. Exchangeable corporate bonds are bonds issued by shareholders of listed companies that can be converted into company stocks. It should be emphasized that these bonds are not used for financing of listed companies, but for exchanging shares held by shareholders. Goer Group, the major shareholder of Goer shares, has used exchangeable corporate bonds for many times to help it reduce its holdings. In July of 20 17, Goer received a supervision letter criticizing its controlling shareholder, actual controller and concerted parties for reducing their shares by 8.75% from May of 20 12 to May of 20 17, and failing to disclose the equity change report. According to the regulations, disclosure is required when the reduction ratio reaches 5%.
According to statistics, Goer Group, the major shareholder of Goer shares, has issued 5.7 billion yuan of exchangeable bonds for cash since 20 14. It is worth mentioning that Goer shares have been in a state of free cash flow loss for many years. If Jiang Bin has plans for the future of the company and is optimistic, it should not rush to cash out 5.7 billion yuan of exchangeable corporate bonds, but should issue convertible bonds to finance listed companies. The outrageous behavior of major shareholders does not stop there. Jiang Bin also realized personal cashing through the employee stock ownership plan. Goer has implemented three employee stock ownership plans, two of which came from the shares transferred by Jiang Bin. In this way, Jiang Bin cashed in about 654.38+63.2 million yuan. In 20 19, Jiang Bin also reduced its holdings several times through the secondary market and cashed in nearly 65,438 billion yuan. The pressure of market value management brought by the reduction of major shareholders has also been passed on to listed companies-since 2065438+08, Goer shares have spent more than 10 billion yuan on share repurchase. Does the company have the responsibility to buy back shares in the case of free cash flow loss?
To sum up, Jiang Bin and Dragon Brothers directly and indirectly reduced their fancy shares and cashed in more than 7 billion yuan in disguised form. It seems reasonable to combine this with the sale of VR independent industries-combining the founder's cash-out behavior and the logic behind it, we can better understand the behavior of selling pico. The future has arrived, and there will be no Goethe's position in the coming metacosmic era.
The future has arrived.
It is the strategy of listed companies to bind large customers to become their foundry enterprises, but the shortcomings are also obvious, and there is no pricing power or even bargaining power. Working for a giant in a foundry is even worse. If you are not careful, it seems that you are busy in vain. Looking at the revenue data seems to make a lot of money, but it is brought by heavy asset investment. In order to cooperate with the giant's product iteration, the foundry needs to continuously invest in technology and product research and development, improve the factory equipment for production and processing, and all the raw materials that the big customers need to purchase are paid by the foundry, and the big customers have credit.
The business model of the foundry determines the balance sheet of Goer shares. According to the data in 2020, fixed assets, inventory, accounts receivable and intangible assets account for 83.95% of Goer's shares. According to the data in the 20021annual report, Goer's total assets are 6 10 billion yuan, but its total fixed assets are 18 12335.25, the total construction in progress is 2 12705.59, and the notes and accounts receivable are/.
To sum up, although there is a net operating inflow every year (the proportion of net cash flow is not low since 20 15), due to a large number of asset purchases and investments every year, since Goer's listing in 2008, the free cash flow has rarely been positive, and the accumulated data is a loss. This can also explain the main reason why the cumulative profit data of Goer shares listed is objective but dividends are few. By issuing stocks and convertible bonds, Goer shares have raised a total of 9.864 billion yuan since listing, which is basically equal to the accumulated loss of free cash flow plus cash dividends.
Well, this can be further analyzed. Since its listing, Goer's position in the OEM industry chain has basically been promoted by raising funds. This is determined by the industry model and the fate of the entire foundry industry. Since listing, the net profit realized by Goer shares is basically less than the cash paid for investing in assets such as factories, machinery and equipment in the same period. Goer shares fully tasted this kind of bitterness in the fruit chain era, which is also the original driving force for them to strive to build technology research and development and independent brands in the meta-cosmic era. If we understand the assets of Goer's incubation VR technology research and development and independent brand integration according to this logic, the strategic ambition is admirable and the market prospect is full of imagination. Coupled with the fiery time of the super-universe concept, Oculus's products visible to the naked eye have exploded, and the market has regained confidence in the company. After the performance and share price of 20 18 fell, the market revenue and share price of Goer shares quickly returned to a high point.
However, the opportunity that Goer shares won for themselves across an era soon came and withered. It is conceivable that in the future, all its experiences in the fruit chain may be repeated in the period of OEM for Meta (original Facebook). However, this time, it has no chance to get rid of the Meta OEM industry chain and find a new way out. Because, Meta's efforts in the meta-universe today are just making wedding dresses for other girls.
At this point, it is necessary for us to explain the industrial logic of the construction and reconstruction of the metauniverse. The essence of the meta-world is digitalization, but the driving force of human beings is decentralization, which is to change the situation that big data is monopolized by oligarchs in the Internet era and form a value Internet pattern based on the underlying technology of blockchain.
Therefore, it can be judged that in the process of constructing the Meta-universe, Meta will bring many iterations of technologies and products and scene practice of virtual applications to the meta-universe, but with the process of reconstructing the meta-universe with the value returning to users as the main line, a large number of original meta-universe applications and corresponding original hardware will be born and become the mainstream.
Therefore, in the process of human yearning for digitalization and going to the meta-universe, China's manufacturing industry, represented by Goer shares, will be positioned as a foundry, which will be even more tragic than the previous era, and it is difficult to have the opportunity to hold the meta-thigh again as Goer shares after de-chaining. However, this does not mean that China manufacturing has no chance in the meta-cosmic era. We believe that the economic aggregates of the physical world and the metacosmic world will change, and may gradually reach a critical point in the next few decades-most of human economic activities are carried out in the metacosmic world (virtual digital space). When most economic entities are attracted by blockchain technology and token mechanism, the opportunity of China manufacturing in the meta-universe industry lies in the construction process of the meta-universe and the provision of physical materials.
How can China Manufacturing get rid of the fate of becoming a foundry again in the meta-cosmic era? This is a proposition that needs the respect of cutting-edge technology and needs to be jointly formulated and solved by entity manufacturing enterprises and capital investment institutions.