After the end of the Cold War, the United States became the only superpower in the world, or according to the thinking of some people in the United States-the United States became the first truly global power. After the "drastic changes in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe" and the disintegration of the Soviet Union, China became the largest and strongest country among the few countries that continued to implement the socialist system. Moreover, through more than 20 years of reform and opening-up, China has been taking economic construction as the primary task of the state machine for nearly 30 years, quickly jumping out of the trough of the "ten-year catastrophe" and developing at a high speed all the way. Its rapid economic recovery and expanding economic strength have become a new bright spot of world economic development. At the same time, China's political, diplomatic, cultural and other elements have gradually moved closer to international rules and gradually integrated into the international community. China, with its increasing comprehensive national strength and rising international status, is playing an increasingly important role in world affairs and its influence cannot be ignored.

From the changes in the international society and political system in the short term after the Cold War, we can see that with the rise of China, China's position has become more and more prominent. With the long-term concealment of structural differences and conflicts between the United States and Europe, Sino-US relations seem to have returned to the initial stage of contact between the two countries. That is, a dialogue between an emerging country and a traditional big country, but their position has changed 180 degrees. The emerging United States has become a rising China, and the "global power" of the Qing Empire is called the "global empire". History will never repeat itself, but it often "reappears" in different time and space or in the same space. With the passage of time, the "reappeared history" will often be complicated by more interpretations, adding many uncertainties and creating many equal futures.

Undeniably, the environment in which Sino-US relations are located and the present situation of the two countries are indeed similar to those in the late 18th century and the early 19th century, but this should be regarded as a superficial status quo. With the process of economic globalization, the international system is closer, the trend of global political diplomacy is more obvious, and the internal conflicts under the cover of appearances become more prominent than history. The appearance and obvious presentation of internal contradictions enable people to influence and act on historical laws with a clearer mind and create a broader space for politicians of various countries. Therefore, looking forward to Sino-US relations, it is likely to take the historical law of emerging countries' hegemony over traditional countries as the main line and criterion, and show a wave-like progress under the influence of decisions made by government politicians and heads of state in combination with information elements. Of course, the long-term existence of this "American imperial period" cannot be ruled out just because of various unconventional phenomena in this unique "global empire" shown by the United States in its "imperial theory". If this assumption is established, Sino-US relations and the luxury of the development space of the two countries, and even the future of the two countries, will go out of the scope of historical laws for the first time, get rid of its shackles, and embark on the second road of long-term US dominance of the world. China's position as a rising "emerging power" may be stifled under this system, which is certainly a road that China does not want to see and embark on. Perhaps it can be understood as China's intrinsic motivation to advocate a multipolar world.

To sum up, Sino-US relations generally have two development directions. These two development directions are based on historical laws and the interaction between the two countries. However, with the globalization of the international community, even the United States, the only superpower, must maintain and use the existing international system and order in contradictions. Events in any corner of the world or decisions made by any country will affect other countries and nations to varying degrees (the introduction of the concept of nation is due to one of the founding concepts of European countries, that is, "nation state". Although the world today is dominated by sovereign countries, it does not rule out that the conceptualization of countries will have an impact on national politics, diplomacy and even the world, directly affecting their interests in the region. Therefore, according to the traditional norms or concepts of relations, it is somewhat narrow to analyze and predict the development of bilateral relations only based on the relations between the two countries. To analyze the trend of Sino-US relations, we must look at the following aspects: the maintenance of American global hegemony; The maintenance and destruction of the existing international order by the United States; Russia; The role of Europe in Sino-US relations; China's own economic influence and pragmatic diplomacy; The Impact of the Iraq War on the Global and Sino-US Relations: The Permanence of the Taiwan Province Province Issue.

1. Maintain global hegemony

The so-called analysis of maintaining American global hegemony is actually to look at the length of time for the United States, the only global country, to maintain its dominance under the current international order. At the same time, we can't rule out another situation, that is, the implicit infiltration and indirect influence of the United States on other parts of the world. If the two are skillfully combined, the hegemony of the United States is likely to last for a long time, and it is not an exaggeration to judge that it will last for one to two centuries.

Looking back at history, there are four empires that really have influence on the world: the Roman Empire, the Chinese Empire, the First Empire of France and the British Empire. (Note: The influence on the world does not mean that these four empires are "global countries". Among them, the Roman Empire and the Han Empire in the Chinese imperial system almost existed at the same time, and the Parthian Empire, which ruled Persia, and the Guishuang Empire, which ruled present-day Afghanistan and northwest India, vaguely knew each other's existence. The two empires have the following similarities: imperial power is based on a hierarchical system composed of vassal States, protectorates and colonies, and people outside the empire who are generally regarded as barbarians; Economy is a single self-sufficient economy; Exert strength through complex political and economic organization system; Strong sense of cultural superiority; The system is independent and self-sufficient, isolated and not challenged by any external organized opponents. The Chinese empire itself has some characteristics: centralized political authority and unified bureaucratic system. For the first time, the British empire achieved global hegemony through maritime power. London has become a major financial and trade center in the world. The British opened the way with trade, and then the national flag followed. However, as the world hegemon, the population is relatively small, and it does not control Europe, but only balances European power. (Note: Europe has been the geopolitical center of Eurasia for a long time in world history), so compared with the first two regional empires, it is not a global empire. The First Empire of France, which preceded it, almost established its real hegemony in Europe. If Napoleon succeeds, he will probably become the first big country to dominate the world. But Napoleon was defeated by seven anti-French alliances.

In contrast to the above situation, the scope and omnipresence of global power in the United States today is unique. If we don't stick to the conceptual definition, we can find that except for the self-sufficient economic structure and isolated system, the United States has all the characteristics of the above four empires and "controls" Europe. In addition, the United States has many advantages that the former does not have.

The economic vitality of the United States stands out among the economies of all other countries, providing the necessary preconditions for the United States to play a leading role in the world. After the war, the American economy exceeded 50% of the world's gross national product! At the end of the Cold War, the proportion of the United States in the global gross national product, especially the share of manufacturing production, has been fixed at around 30%, which is the average value in most years after the war in the 20th century. Backed by the economy, the United States has maintained or even expanded its leading position in using the latest scientific breakthroughs for military purposes, thus theoretically establishing the only force that can effectively exert its influence in the world. In the field of residential technology, which plays a decisive role in the economy, the United States has also maintained a strong competitive advantage. America's mastery of the cutting-edge areas of the future economy means that America's dominant position in technology cannot be updated and lost quickly, and it can maintain its advantage over its main rivals in productivity.