Specifically, in the first half of the year, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 4,270.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%. Among them, in June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.8% year-on-year, from two consecutive months of decline to positive growth. In addition, in June, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.9% year-on-year, and the operating income of enterprises increased by 8.6%, both of which rose for two consecutive months, increasing by 6.8 and 7.2 percentage points respectively compared with the low point in April. Production and sales continued to improve slightly, and corporate benefits gradually recovered.
Experts interviewed said that the main factors supporting the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in June were the obvious repair of industrial chain and supply chain, which accelerated the convergence of production and marketing among enterprises, the fall of upstream commodity prices and the recovery of terminal demand, and also improved the profit differentiation between upstream and downstream.
However, it should be noted that some industries still face deep losses caused by insufficient demand. It is necessary not only to strengthen the bail-out policy to reduce the operating costs of enterprises, but also to adjust the production, supply and inventory capacity of enterprises themselves to adapt to the new demand changes. With the orderly progress of enterprises' resumption of work and production, and the sustained effect of the policy of steady growth in the first half of the year, industrial profits are expected to continue to rise in the second half of the year.
Cars promote the growth of industrial profits.
After experiencing the impact of the epidemic, in June, the industrial chain supply chain was further restored, and the benefits of industrial enterprises were significantly improved. Profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.8% year-on-year, from two consecutive months of decline to positive growth, and the profit growth rate rebounded by 7.3 percentage points from last month, showing an accelerated recovery trend.
From the perspective of industries, in June, among the 4 1 industrial categories, the profit growth rate of 23 industries accelerated or declined, from decline to increase. There are 2 1 industries with year-on-year profit growth, of which 15 industries have achieved double-digit growth.
Zhu Hong, senior statistician of the Industry Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that thanks to the continuous recovery of the industrial chain supply chain, the profit of the equipment manufacturing industry changed from a year-on-year decrease of 9.0% in May to an increase of 4. 1% for two consecutive months, driving the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size to increase by 4.0 percentage points compared with last month. Among them, the automobile manufacturing industry has accelerated the resumption of production in Shanghai, Jilin and other major automobile producing areas, and its profits have changed from decline to a substantial increase of 47.7%, which is the industry that plays the most important role in stimulating the profit recovery of industrial enterprises.
Zhou, a macro researcher in the financial market department of China Everbright Bank, told the reporter of 2 1 Century Business Herald that the obvious improvement in the profits of the automobile and equipment manufacturing industry was mainly due to the fact that the industry took the lead in resuming production, and the prices of superimposed energy, steel, rubber and other commodities fell, which reduced the input cost of automobile production. With the weakening of the epidemic and the support of a series of recent policies to stabilize automobile consumption, domestic automobile sales have also rebounded significantly.
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Association, told the reporter of 2 1 Century Business Herald that compared with the recovery of domestic automobile sales in June, the automobile export market is still strong. Since the export of local enterprises in Shanghai accounts for 20% of the national export, the national automobile export situation also improved obviously in June after the epidemic situation in Shanghai improved. In June, China exported 249,000 vehicles, up 365,438+0% year-on-year.
Judging from the monthly trend, China's automobile exports have seasonal characteristics in recent years. In 2022, the export of the automobile market started strongly, but in June, affected by the epidemic from May 438 to April, the export volume decreased month by month, and reversed in May-June. It is predicted that there will still be huge development space for automobile export in the future, and the profitability of automobile enterprises will continue to improve. Cui Dongshu said.
In addition, the profit decline of downstream consumer goods manufacturing industry continued to narrow. In June, although the profit of the consumer goods manufacturing industry decreased by 1 1.7% year-on-year, the decline rate narrowed by 6.7 percentage points compared with the previous month. Among them, the profits of textile and garment, furniture, printing and agricultural and sideline food processing industries increased by 44.7%, 20.6%, 3.8% and 1.9%, respectively, all of which turned from decline to increase.
According to Zhou's analysis, the improvement of consumer goods manufacturing industry is mainly due to the recovery of domestic terminal demand, but at present, the recovery of consumer demand is relatively slow, and it is expected that the profits of downstream consumer goods will show a steady increase month by month.
The loss of coal-fired power generation has improved.
The high price of raw materials and the differentiation of upstream and downstream profits have been plaguing the overall operation of the industrial economy since last year. In the first half of the year, the mining industry achieved a total profit of 852.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.20 times; The manufacturing industry realized a total profit of 3 1, 893. 1 100 million yuan, down1.4%; The electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industries realized a total profit of 228.09 billion yuan, down 18 1%. Among them, the differentiation relationship between coal enterprises and electric power enterprises is the most obvious.
On July 22nd, the Report on Analysis and Forecast of National Power Supply and Demand Situation in the First Half of 2022 issued by China Electric Power Enterprise Association showed that more than half of the coal-fired power companies in large power generation groups were still at a loss in the first half of the year due to the continuous high coal price. Overall, due to the increase in coal prices in the first half of the year, the coal procurement cost of coal-fired power enterprises nationwide increased by about 200 billion yuan year-on-year, and some enterprises had tight cash flow.
However, compared with the darkest moment of 202 1, coal-fired power enterprises have shown signs of improvement. Recently, listed companies under the five major power generation groups have successively released performance forecasts. Among them, huadian power international turned losses into profits, and it is estimated that the profit in the first half of the year will reach 65.438+0.459 billion yuan to 65.438+0.79438+0 billion yuan. 202 1, huadian power international lost 4.97 billion yuan, down 21/0.8% year-on-year. Huaneng International expects a loss of 2.7 billion yuan to 3.24 billion yuan in the first half of the year. Although it is still not profitable, this loss has been greatly narrowed.
Zhou said that the profitability of electricity, heat, gas and water production has improved. Major energy receiving countries continue to make efforts in energy supply, price stability and bail-out support policies. In May and June, the overall coal price decreased steadily, which reduced the cost pressure. Coupled with the accelerated recovery of domestic production activities, the peak of electricity consumption in summer, the demand for coal-fired power terminals has increased substantially, which has led to the improvement of industry profitability.
Since the formal implementation of the Notice on Further Improving the Price Formation Mechanism in the Coal Market in May, the National Development and Reform Commission began to implement interval regulation of coal prices, and then launched a series of severe measures in June and July to solve the problems of rising coal prices and non-performance of medium and long-term contracts. At the beginning of July, the National Development and Reform Commission held a meeting to arrange the deployment of medium and long-term coal contracts. The meeting clearly pointed out that for the cases of non-performance of the long association since June, the clause of "one owed and three compensated" should be strictly implemented, but the new cases of non-performance in July should be severely punished by the way of "one owed and ten punished".
Statistics from the Bureau of Statistics also show that the gap between the profit growth rates of the three major industrial sectors is narrowing in June. The profit of the mining industry increased by 77.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped from last month; The profit of electric power, heat, gas and water production and supply industries increased 13. 1%, and the profit turned from decline to increase.
Wu Chaoming, vice president of Caixin Research Institute, told the reporter of 265438+20th Century Business Herald that the profit improvement of power enterprises is also related to the high growth of infrastructure investment. In June, the growth rate of infrastructure investment increased by 1. 1 percentage point compared with the previous month, including many electric power infrastructure investments. Moreover, with the increase of power infrastructure in the future, the efficiency and terminal demand of power supply departments will also increase, which will contribute to the continuous improvement of profits of power enterprises.
China Electric Power Enterprise Association predicts that the electricity consumption of the whole society will increase by about 7.0% in the second half of the year, and the growth rate is obviously higher than that in the first half of the year. In order to support the high-quality transformation of power generation enterprises, it is suggested to support coal-fired power enterprises from the aspects of on-grid tariff, finance and carbon market. For example, increase financial and tax support for coal-fired power enterprises. Moderately relax the scope of policy support for coal-fired power enterprises that are difficult to operate due to high fuel costs, form self-hematopoietic function as soon as possible, and improve the power supply capacity of coal-fired power.
Insufficient demand restricts the improvement of profits.
Generally speaking, the profit recovery of industrial enterprises has accelerated and the profit industry structure has undergone positive changes. However, we should also see that the external environment is becoming increasingly complex and severe, and the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises is still at a low level. Hong Chu said that at present, the losses of enterprises are still relatively large, and some enterprises still face more difficulties in production and operation.
Different from the gradual recovery of profits of enterprises in the middle and lower reaches, some raw material processing and manufacturing industries located in the upper reaches have suffered large-scale losses in the repeated game of steady growth and strong expectations and low demand and weak reality. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the profit of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 68.7% in the first half of the year.
In the performance forecast of the first half of the year, many listed steel enterprises attributed the decline in profits to weak downstream demand and steel prices continued to fall. Among them, Valin Iron and Steel pointed out in the performance forecast for the first half of this year that since the second quarter of this year, the company's operating performance has declined due to the continuous sluggish market demand and the downward shock of steel prices. Liugang Co., Ltd. pointed out that one of the main reasons for the decline in performance in the first half of the year was the sluggish real estate market, and the relative sector of the excellent talent market continued to weaken, which inhibited the advantages of the company's excellent talent products.
At the symposium on economic operation of some iron and steel enterprises in the second quarter of China Iron and Steel Industry Association, He pointed out that although the main problem in the current market lies in the demand side of steel, the realistic solution lies in the supply side of steel. The steel output in the past two months has obviously exceeded the market demand. At present, the most important thing is to put industry self-discipline into action, insist on organizing production according to the contract, and don't put all the assets into inventory after hard work.
Xu Xiangchun, consulting director of Shanghai Steel Union Iron and Steel Division, told 2 1 Century Business Herald that in June, the profit rate of long-process steel mills was less than 20%, and short-process steel enterprises suffered a total loss. In the follow-up, whether it is the self-discipline reduction of steel mills or the policy reduction of regulatory authorities, the probability of steel production in the second half of the year will be lower than that in the first half.
The same situation also happened in the cement building materials industry. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative cement output from June to June was 977 million tons, down 15% year-on-year, reaching a new low of 1 1 year. During the same period, the market demand dropped significantly, the inventory level remained high, and the relationship between supply and demand was seriously unbalanced. April and May are the traditional peak seasons, and cement prices continue to fall. However, in June, the weather was hot and there was more rain, and the industry entered the off-season and the market demand continued to be sluggish. Most provinces and autonomous regions have also started off-peak production arrangements.
Chen Bailin, Deputy Secretary-General of China Cement Association and President of Digital Cement Network, said that peak-shifting production is actually one of the important means to effectively resolve overcapacity by stages, that is, to change the production that used to emphasize high operating rate into the dynamic matching of market demand and supply, so as to realize the dynamic balance of production and marketing cycles.
According to Zhou's analysis, the lack of demand in the steel and cement industries mainly comes from the conduction of the real estate market, and the recent high temperature and rainy weather has also affected the efficiency of infrastructure construction. However, the overall situation will improve in the second half of the year, mainly due to the recovery of the domestic economy. Not only is infrastructure investment accelerating, but there are also signs recently that the domestic property market as a whole is showing a marginal recovery trend, and the policy effect of stabilizing the property market due to urban policies will gradually emerge in the second half of the year.
Wu Chaoming pointed out that because the investment and sales in the real estate market are still in the negative growth range, the recovery of domestic consumption is still weak, and the inventory growth rate of the manufacturing industry in the upper, middle and lower reaches is already in the historical high range, which will restrict the rebound of industrial production and is not conducive to the substantial improvement of profits. In the future, with the continuous decline of domestic PPI growth rate and the gradual recovery of domestic demand, it will push industrial enterprises to turn to a new round of destocking cycle. Moreover, enterprises' resumption of work and production is still progressing in an orderly manner, and counter-cyclical policies such as helping enterprises get rid of difficulties continue to be effective. In July, the profits of industrial enterprises are expected to continue to repair.
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