Ten times potential of China's trade logistics viewed from cross-border e-commerce logistics.
The epidemic has greatly accelerated the penetration rate of overseas e-commerce, similar to that after SARS in China, which has made Alibaba, Taobao, JD.COM and other e-commerce. In fact, although overseas is very developed, offline business is dominant, the penetration rate of e-commerce is not high, and the growth rate is not fast, but the epidemic has changed this result.
In 20 19, the penetration rate of American e-commerce was about 1 1%, which was less than 2% higher than that in 20 18. After the outbreak of COVID-19, the online permeability reached 27% in April, a record high, which was nearly 16% higher than that in 20 19.
In short, online shopping is an act of changing or even improving lifestyle. Westerners are lazy, and the way e-commerce enters the family is in line with them. It can also be seen from Amazon's financial report that the growth rate of Amazon has obviously accelerated this year's epidemic.
Secondly, not only Amazon has been promoted, but also small and medium-sized cross-border e-commerce represented by AliExpress in China has obviously accelerated.
Secondly, shopping is a very economical behavior now. Online will break the short-legged economy, and commodity prices will participate in global competition. After Taobao, many small and medium-sized commodity markets closed down, and everyone bought many offline prices in Taobao Pinduoduo.
Among them, these cross-border small and medium-sized businesses are relatively traditional western products after entering Amazon International Station or AliExpress. Not only service experience, but also price has obvious advantages. Look at the gross profit of Anke Innovation (SZ300866) as high as 50%+.
Many China commodities have weak intellectual property rights, electronic product accessories, some electronic products, toys, handicrafts, and China-specific foods. Compared with overseas offline markets, it has obvious price advantages.
For example, an overseas Apple data cable costs about $20, and domestic Taobao only needs 2 yuan. Cross-border e-commerce can earn enough profits at the price of $65,438 +0.
In short, with better service experience and lower price, westerners will linger because of the epidemic.
Let's talk about AliExpress in particular. Compared with Amazon International, dimensionality reduction is a blow. Amazon shopping basically has no pre-sales service, and can only focus on comments and product details pages. Moreover, after-sales products are basically returned, and special requirements or instructions need to be written. The timeliness is extremely poor. AliExpress is similar to domestic timely service, which greatly solves the pain points before and after shopping.
Let's talk about several characteristics of cross-border logistics behind it.
First, as mentioned above, cross-border logistics has actually grown rapidly and the track is very large.
According to the data of iiMedia Research, the scale of cross-border e-commerce reached 10.8 trillion in 2065,438+09. (This price includes B2B and B2C)
As a key link to serve the cross-border e-commerce industry chain, cross-border e-commerce logistics accounts for about 20%-30% of cross-border e-commerce transaction costs. According to the market scale of cross-border e-commerce in China 10 trillion yuan, the industry market scale of cross-border e-commerce logistics in China is between 2 trillion yuan and 3 trillion yuan, and the market development space is huge.
Among them, cross-border e-commerce logistics (B2C)
In 20 19, the import and export of cross-border e-commerce platforms186.2 billion, which is expected to reach more than 270 billion this year. According to the cost of 20-30%, corresponding to the market space of 54-810 billion, the compound growth in the future is as high as 40%.
Second, the industry concentration is very low.
The international freight forwarding industry is relatively scattered, with the top five accounting for 3%-5% of the market. However, the promotion of industry concentration is an inevitable trend (later analysis). The concentration of western logistics is about 80%
Overseas benchmarking shows that foreign freight forwarders are running well, and the 20-year compound rate of return of leading companies' share prices is 15%-22%, so it is expected that there will be large-cap companies in China. Compared with overseas giants, 2002-2008 is the accelerated expansion period of the company. The core driving force is that European and American multinational companies outsource their manufacturing to China and other countries, and multinational companies give priority to the established European and American logistics companies. The business volume brought by manufacturing in China has greatly increased, which has brought room for growth to European and American multinational logistics giants such as Dexun (about 65.438+0578 billion RMB) and DSV (about 238.5 billion RMB). With the local cross-border e-commerce enterprises in China becoming bigger and stronger, and the owners and core profit points shifting, domestic local freight forwarders are expected to repeat the development process of leading freight forwarders in Europe and America.
Third, the gross profit brought about by the change of cross-border logistics structure has increased.
In the cross-border e-commerce model, the main customers are small B-end and C-end customers, and the choice of logistics providers lies in local cross-border e-commerce enterprises in China. Cross-border e-commerce supply is more fragmented than traditional trade, pursuing short frequency and fast speed, personalized demand is much higher than traditional foreign trade contract logistics, and gross profit margin is higher than traditional trade supply.
Taking Huamao Logistics as an example, the price per ton of cross-border e-commerce business is 1.9 times that of traditional air transportation, and the gross profit 19% is higher than that of traditional air freight forwarders. With the rapid increase of cross-border e-commerce supply, the profit growth center is expected to be by going up one flight of stairs.
Fourth, we should improve industrial concentration.
There are several steps in cross-border logistics. I analyze it as a cross-border insider.
First, the domestic logistics sector. Second, domestic warehousing. Third, domestic customs clearance. Fourth, overseas customs clearance. 5. Overseas storage. Sixth, overseas distribution.
Cross-border e-commerce has two pain points. First, timeliness. Second, the after-sales problem.
A, the key to timeliness lies in the customs clearance capacity and flight stability.
Clearance time varies from 1 day to 1 month, or even longer. Of course, the customs clearance ability is stronger under the background of state-owned assets (the specific reasons are not explained).
As a state-owned enterprise, Beijing has great advantages.
Flight stability, such as during an epidemic, because a large proportion of air logistics is in the cabin, when the number of passenger planes decreases. At this time, the relevant flight capabilities will be tested. Large-scale logistics flights are stable, with flights every day and even their own cargo planes.
Small logistics companies can only fight planes. Many times, after your goods are cleared, there is no suitable direct flight.
B, the key to the after-sales problem is whether there are overseas warehouses. Needless to say, most merchants will use FBS logistics to send them to Amazon warehouses everywhere. But this is very difficult for new small and medium-sized enterprises, including non-Amazon enterprises.
After the increase of industry concentration, international trade and other large-scale logistics have overseas warehouses. Can undertake the problem of transit return and delivery to a certain extent. Small cross-border logistics has no overseas warehouse.
The improvement of cross-border logistics concentration perfectly solves the above pain points. The flights of large cross-border companies are more stable and frequent, which effectively saves costs, improves services and solves the problems of timeliness and after-sales.
Fifth, the fatal problem of class 2 participants. Service problem+trust problem.
(1) Overseas logistics enterprises have poor timeliness and marketing, and they are all standardized services, so it is difficult to provide personalized services. If there are after-sales problems, they just have to wait for a few weeks (e-mail to report them according to the situation).
(2) Small and medium-sized participants, the fatal problem is that there is no way to have stable flights, the price is unstable, and sometimes any charter flights are very cheap. However, the trust problem is difficult to solve. Freight companies often go bankrupt suddenly, so it is difficult to entrust your high-value goods to short-term companies.
Moreover, it is difficult to have an advantage in price after the concentration is improved, and there is no service from overseas warehouses.
Finally, talk about some advantages of China's trade logistics.
First, the advantages of customer resources and flexible competitive market mechanism.
The company intends to introduce strategic partners in this merger.
Introduce war investment to promote industrial upgrading and business expansion. In June, 2020, 600 million yuan of Huamao Logistics Financing was introduced into Dinghui Investment (400 million yuan) and Shandong SDIC (2 200 million yuan).
As one of the largest private equity investment institutions in China, CDH has invested in more than 200 enterprises, of which more than 60 are listed at home and abroad. In the field of logistics, it has a very extensive and in-depth industrial investment and operation. The investment projects include well-known companies such as Best Logistics, Debon Logistics, Flash Delivery, Anneng Logistics, Honeycomb Box Technology, One Meter Tick, etc. Among them, express delivery companies such as Anneng Logistics and Debon Logistics have tens of thousands of terminal outlets in China. Moreover, it has strong competitive trunk transportation capacity and cross-border e-commerce investment. Ruyoushu and Zhejiang Zhiyu are the head enterprises of China B2C cross-border export e-commerce. They have great demand for international logistics, and there is great room for cooperation and improvement with listed companies in vigorously developing cross-border e-commerce logistics business.
Shandong SDIC is the only provincial-level state-owned capital operation company in Shandong Province, and it is one of the strategic distribution bases of trade and logistics in China in the northern coastal area of China. Shandong SDIC will assist China trade logistics in the strategic logistics network layout in Shandong Province, and help China trade logistics to explore and find high-quality projects or potential enterprises related to the construction of modern logistics network in Shandong Province with reasonable commercial efforts. The two strategic investors will establish a comprehensive and in-depth strategic cooperative relationship with China Trade Logistics in the upstream and downstream areas of the logistics industry, and promote the upgrading and business expansion of listed companies in related industries by fully mobilizing the high-quality industrial resources of both sides.
Ali is particularly interested in logistics enterprises, and has invested in YTO Express (SH600233), Shentong Express and Dayun, including Sifangda Express Loan, which is likely to increase China's trade in the future.
Second, central enterprises have strong trust and stable customs clearance speed.
I am engaged in cross-border business (understand the customs clearance speed of small and medium-sized logistics enterprises) and have been cheated by logistics companies.
For central enterprises, it is more stable to ensure the safety of your goods to a greater extent (to solve the trust of reporting loss and replacing goods) and know that customs clearance is fast.
Third, stable route layout ability.
Fourth, the company has sufficient cash, strong M&A ability, and the company is very willing to buy. Extensional development promotion.
Finally, the company's cross-border logistics performance has increased significantly. And the valuation is very low.
/kloc-the cross-border income in 0/9 was only 23 1 100 million, only 0.8 million tons.
In the first half of 2020, the revenue reached 933 million (based on Q 1, it still affects domestic exports). It is conservatively estimated that there will also be 2.5 billion cross-border income this year, with an increase of 1000+%, bringing about a gross profit growth of nearly 400 million.
Q2 Company achieved a net profit of 2.65438+0.5 million, a record high. Considering that it will continue to accelerate in the second half of the year, it is estimated that the net profit this year will be 700 million, only 14PE. Next year, it is estimated that the net profit will exceed 65.438+0 billion, with only 654.38+00 PE.
New supermarket industry leader, compound growth is expected to reach more than 30%. How should it be valued?
Referring to Milkville (SH6037 13) and Jiacheng International, including SF Holdings, in my mind, the company is expected to give a valuation of 30-50PE, and the target price will reach 30-50 billion next year. With reference to overseas benchmarking, there will be hundreds of billions of space in the future.
Shenwan Hongyuan 9. 17 covers short-term valuation17.5 billion. (Friday's closing market value was 9.965 billion yuan)