Although my heart is unwilling, my eyes are also convinced. 20/kloc-in July of 0/7, I was still writing an article entitled "Who is knocking at your window" and asked Mr. Wang for debts in a fancy way. According to the trend of the first half of that year, the sales volume in that year was 28.98 million-30 million, which was 3.5% of the distance. Victory seems within reach, but punishment is like thunder.
Still sighing for the decline of 2.8% in 2065438+08, take a chance? 20 19 accelerates the downward trend! At this point, we are convinced that prosperity has gone, and the days are short and the nights are long.
In the face of more uncertain 2020, has the growth momentum and chassis of China automobile been completely lost? The new energy market that lost subsidies turned down in the second half of 20 19. Is making an electric car a gamble with no future?
These problems are both urgent and important. Unable to find the wrong starting point, we would rather never start.
20 19 accelerated decline
20 18, the car market was cold, and it didn't come until May when Mohe melted ice. 20 19 The rape blossoms in Sanya just opened in early February, and the hope was soon dashed.
201February 8, 2009, the latest automobile sales data of China Automobile Association showed that in1October, the automobile sales volume was 23 1 10000 vehicles, down 9. 1% year-on-year. It is estimated that the annual sales in 20 19 will be about 25.83 million vehicles, which is expected to drop by more than 8%.
The "Matthew effect" of the strong staying strong and the weak accelerating out is quickly reflected in every market segment. Before 20 19 1 1 month, the market share of the top ten joint venture brands increased from 82.9% in the same period last year to 85.8%; The market share of the top five independent companies increased from 55.7% in 20 18 to 57.7%. The market is warm and cold, and the strong are self-reliant.
20 12 was forced to slow down because of the Diaoyu islands incident, and Toyota, Honda and Nissan, which were actively adjusted, became the miracle of contrarian growth in the weak since 20 18; Volkswagen did the opposite-FAW-Volkswagen escaped from the decline zone perfectly with its powerful SUV strategy and Jetta's position in the low-end market; Deeply complacent, SAIC Volkswagen ended the bleak year of 20 19 with a shocking Passat "collision door" incident in the last month of 20 19.
From 2.8% in 20 18 to 8.7%* (expected) in 20 19, what caused the China auto market to end its 30-year prosperity and suddenly enter the cold winter?
The complicated and changeable economic environment at home and abroad, the increasingly tight environmental protection requirements and the loss of growth momentum in the third-and fourth-tier markets are recognized as important factors leading to the decline of 20 18 to 20 19 cars.
But the truth is by no means limited to this: grandiose expectations of China's total market, short-term changeable industrial policies, unprepared inferior products of independent brands, capacity planning of the joint venture company's Great Leap Forward, and bottomless price war of luxury brands. It is the chief culprit that leads to the loss of kinetic energy in the automobile market.
"Matthew effect" will push the weak car companies into the abyss, and the new strong after reorganization will better adapt to the next round of fighting and become the champion of the new cycle.
What is certain is that although the market will reappear warmth and new trends, those names that have disappeared in the long river of history will be completely sealed by time, as if they had never appeared.
40 million cars ran over people.
Car inventory is the root of all evil! However, the inventory comes from the huge capacity planning and mirage-like sales target, and will eventually point to the grand and unrealistic expected goal of "selling 45 million vehicles a year" that prevailed before 10.
In 2009, China automobile market reached the top of the world with13.64 million vehicles, and began to dominate the world with the jaw-dropping growth rate of everyone. This devastating trend has blinded too many people.
Kafka said: "Although there is a purpose, there is nowhere to follow; Our so-called road is nothing more than hesitation. "
Xu Heyi, Xu Liuping and so on. Everyone is expecting the number of cars in China to soar by 40 million to 50 million. Prescott boasted that "the number of cars in China is expected to reach 75 million in 2030" in Chengdu "Global Automobile Forum" on 20 10. Sitting in the second row, Mr. Xu Changming endured this foreign spit and glanced shyly at the PPT of "the annual sales volume of China automobile market is 40 million vehicles" in his computer. He couldn't help feeling sad at the same time.
I must mention the ten-year gambling between Wang Yunqing and me in 20 10. At the Guangzhou Auto Show in 2004, at the dinner in the top restaurant of Grand Hyatt Hotel, I was infected by the enthusiastic atmosphere of future prediction. I cautiously and optimistically predict that before 2020, the China automobile market is expected to break through 30 million vehicles in stages, but it will eventually return to the total of 25 million vehicles to maintain the balance of power; On the other hand, Miss Wang is a pessimist. He judged that China's automobile market could not reach 30 million vehicles before 2020. It turns out that the more pessimistic people will win.
Even if the automobile market dropped to less than 26 million in 20 19, Mr. Xu Changming tirelessly promoted his theory of "40 million vehicles" on various occasions. Looking at my familiar PPT formula and the sorrowful automobile market outside, I can't help but feel sad and hate from my heart.
Smart companies don't listen to economists and ignore Xu Changming's PPT. From 20 10 to 20 16, North and South Toyota only added 200,000 production capacity in China; Honda, which was ready to do a big job, also decisively delayed the expansion of the new factory after hitting a wall on 20 15; Nissan, which is a little bolder, is just transforming the remaining excess capacity of Dongfeng.
On the contrary, Beijing Hyundai, Changan Ford and Shenlong Automobile, which were drunk by 40 million vehicles, were worse than one. Volkswagen has been unable to hold on to its dream. In 20 19, its sales in China have reached an astonishing 6 million vehicles. FAW-Volkswagen stumbled 20 19, and SAIC Volkswagen fell unilaterally. In 20 18, Volkswagen reached 4140,000 vehicles, which is probably the historical record of Volkswagen in China.
Volkswagen's extra 2 million production capacity will be the lingering melancholy of the two joint ventures in the next few years.
Born in the south
"I am too south!" Suddenly, it turned into a dialog box at the other end of the phone at 20 19 to greet, tease and laugh, and suddenly it became fashionable.
It is difficult to switch between "National Five" and "National Six", it is difficult for new forces to build cars, it is difficult for traditional companies to sell cars, it is difficult for new energy to grow after subsidies are withdrawn, it is difficult for graduates of traditional automobile majors in 2020 to find jobs, and it is even more difficult for 40-year-old automobile sales representatives to be laid off and re-employed.
The easy road before 20 17 has been finished, and life is naturally getting harder and harder.
Why is it so difficult? In the automobile commune's view:
First of all, from 20 15 to 20 17, because of the strong stimulus of policies and the weak effect of a large number of products, the automobile market overdrawn the future;
Second, new car sales are closely related to the newly employed population. In 20 18 and 20 19, the newly-added employment population decreased and the invisible unemployed population increased, which led to a rapid decline in the newly-added purchasing power of the automobile market.
Third, used cars will increase by 65,438+07% in 2065,438+08 and 9% in 2065,438+09, which will lead to the crowding-out effect on the low-end new car market;
Fourthly, from 20 18 to 20 19, the service life of automobiles began to be extended. The data shows that 20 18 is 0.47 years longer than 20 17, and the willingness to postpone car purchase is very obvious.
These will eventually show two obvious characteristics: rational upgrading of consumption and irrational delay of purchase.
The former shows that more practical and reliable products and brands are sought after (Japanese), and the low-end models marked by Wuling are accelerated to be abandoned; The latter shows that the price war is in the ascendant and the inventory depth is rising.
It is difficult to add "south" to the auto market, and it is also going south (south).
With the shrinking of the market, "Matthew effect" continues to split between regional markets and brands. The economies of Shandong, Hebei and Henan provinces are in trouble, and the economic duality of being strong in the south and weak in the north is also accelerating the differentiation of China automobile market.
In the next few years, the southern local brands represented by Geely and Changan and the southern joint ventures represented by Japanese will continue to expand their leading edge in the future; The coastal southern market, with the economically developed Yangtze River Delta and Greater Bay Area market as the core, will occupy an increasing proportion in the automobile market in China.
Whoever occupies the south will win the initiative. "FAW-Volkswagen's share in the South has increased by nearly 2% since 20 19." Last year165438+1October 18, Zhang Qiang, then general manager of FAW-Volkswagen South China, told the Automobile Commune. Faw-Volkswagen grabbed food from the jaws of Japanese base camp, and maintained a small growth in 20 19, and walked out of a completely different cycle curve from its brother SAIC Volkswagen, which was losing ground in the south.
In "There must be a World War I between China and Japan", the Automobile Corporation predicts that in the next decade, with the economic integration in East Asia and the profound changes in global automobiles, Japanese cars with "hybrid+electric" as the core driving force will continue to race in the market, and their share in the Japanese automobile market is expected to climb from the current 20% to the highest 30%, but eventually they will gradually give up the competition with Japanese brands in the low-end market and gradually realize it around 2030.
Giant's fork in the road
This year, the automobile commune told many stories: there were stories of decline and stories of growth against the trend; There are stories of anger and disputes, and more are stories of lamenting their own misfortunes; Some people's stories also have stories of spring.
I won't make fun of Mr. Amgen again, and I won't touch the fragile and sensitive hearts of those who have sold the legendary Jaguar Land Rover so badly, but are still trying to shine. History will rightfully abandon them in that pile of old newspapers, leaving only a grandiose and clumsy figure.
In recent years, achievements and figures have come so brilliantly and easily. This majestic trend has made many people bloom like fireworks and made many people have illusions.
Mistaken the blowout as the normal state and the platform as the ability, these mistakes that every ordinary person is easy to make, in this beautiful year, I made another mistake.
But karma will come soon. In the brutal knockout, the powerful SAIC Group ushered in a turning point on 20 19. After reaching an unprecedented peak of 7.05 million vehicles in 20 18, the sales volume declined rapidly, and it is expected to drop to about 6 10/00000 vehicles in 20 19. As the core pillars of SAIC-GM and SAIC-GM-Wuling continue to decline, it is a high probability that SAIC will fall below 5 million vehicles in the next three years.
Born in 1969 and 20 10, Dongfeng Company, which surpassed FAW to become the runner-up, celebrated its 50th birthday in a low-key manner last year. In many months last year, FAW's sales figures were actually infinitely close to Dongfeng. Since 20 15, due to various reasons, the top-level design of Dongfeng has been seriously lagging behind and misjudged, not only in independent integration, but also in the development strategy of new energy. The collapse of "natural disaster+man-made disaster" of Shenlong automobile is staggering.
On the other hand, since Xu Liuping took charge of FAW, FAW has risen against the trend in terms of red flag, commercial vehicles and joint ventures. With two powerful joint venture partners, Volkswagen and Toyota, Audi surpassed Dongfeng in 2020 and threatened SAIC's leading position in 2023, although Audi could not charge.
On 20 19, 1 1, the "collision door" of China Insurance Research Passat broke out, which unveiled the last fig leaf of SAIC Volkswagen, the core unit of SAIC. What seems to be a product quality incident is actually the price of SAIC's arrogance for many years. The soaring red flag of 654.38+ 10,000 vehicles and the contrarian rise of FAW show that the China model of "concentrating on doing great things" driven by a strong leader still has strong vitality.
Dongfeng is another representative. After 20 15, Dongfeng completely fell into a standstill, decision makers hesitated, doers avoided, and showstopper took the opportunity to party. A sad song, how many wasted.
Geely Automobile, Great Wall and Changan Automobile, the three independent giants, had a near miss 20 19, but each had its own pain. Geely Automobile's existing talent reserve, capital status and R&D reserve cannot support such a huge system in the long winter; The long night of Changan Automobile, if it weren't for CS75. Coupled with the tenacity of dawn, the company will be completely separated from the first echelon; Great Wall Motor Haval F7 became the "most beautiful boy" on the gloomy and cold night of 20 19, but WEY didn't improve. Great Wall Motor's brand breakthrough road, like Lexus, is longer than the heart and the dream is farther than the foot.
Jianghuai and Zhongtai? Procrastination is actually deeper pain; The death of cheetah and magic speed is not a kind of liberation and eternal life!
"The cradle rocked in hell."
"The cradle rocks above hell." Last year, the automobile commune expected 20 19. In the chaos and decline, with sympathy and unyielding, it continues to stubbornly seek hope for the future.
How grateful I am for this decisive and ruthless liquidation, which washed the lead and let the years precipitate; It drives away bad money and attracts the attention of good people; It shocks the future and makes law and awe shine with wisdom.
"20 19 is not the most difficult time in the auto market, because many companies have good profitability now. When the profitability of these companies cannot be guaranteed, that is the real difficulty. " 2065438+July 2009, facing the unprecedented negative growth of-16.5%, An Conghui, president of Geely Automobile, said.
"In 2020 and 20021year, Toyota will face great pressure of double integral and CAFC (coffee law) in China. If the points plan is implemented, the profit will be greatly affected. " On the afternoon of February 27th, 2009, Dong, executive deputy general manager of Toyota China, looked forward to the future with anxiety.
One is the leader of independent brands, and the other is a strong joint venture brand. Facing the uncertainty of the future, it is already preparing for the worst.
Leaders should be prepared for danger in times of peace and refrain from extravagance and thrift in times of crisis. 2065438+0919 On the evening of February 28th, Wei Lai's LOGO, Li Bin's smile and "Belive? Are you online? The oath of "Better" stood side by side in the huge Shenzhen Gymnasium, and more than 10,000 car owners went to "NEO? Days "(Wei Lairi) is an appeal for Li Bin in trouble and a platform for China Electric in the future.
Why can Musk lead Trass to break through the crisis again and again in the past 15, without giving Wei Lai and Li Bin with the same dream a "chance of failure"? Despite numerous doubts and financial crises, it has become the nearest Weilai to Trass and the most worthy of success among all the new forces.
"20 19 may be the worst year in the past 10, but it will be the best year in the future 10." These parrot-learned chicken soups are of no help to our insight into the future.
The spurt growth of China automobile, which originated in 2000, ended on 20 17, but the process of automobile civilization in China did not end. After 20 18 to 2022, a more rational and high-quality China automobile market will continue to sprint to 30 million in 2030.
In Telling and Remembering, Vladimir Nabokov hinted at the mutual transformation of the rise and fall of life and death with a strong contrast: "The cradle rocks above hell." Just as behind the loss, there is a new round of budding factors. Why do we forget to look for the hopeful green shoots from the cracks in the frozen soil?
At the end of Looking Back on the Past 20 19, I want to share with you the story of a children's picture book "The Buddha of the vole":
"Who scattered snowflakes in the sky? Who melted the ice on the ground?
Who will make the weather better? Who will make the weather worse?
Who let the four-leaf clover grow in June?
Who put out the sunshine? Who lit the moon again? "
From the early autumn of Wusong River to the winter of Huangpu River, vole Buddha is children's favorite. Their mother and I repeatedly read the stories of five lovely voles. It teaches us earnestly that as long as you collect colors in spring, sunshine in summer and words in autumn, the sun will appear in front of you even in the coldest and darkest winter.
The poet Rambo said, "As long as we are patient, we can enter this magnificent city at dawn."
Therefore, even if the days are short and the nights are long, warmth, light and courage to face difficulties will always be endless motivation in life.
For the discussion of market forecast, trends and major events in 2020, please pay attention to/kloc-0 "Annual Plan of Automobile Commune: 2020∣ Pattern and Trends (I): Enemy of Time" which was launched in late October and early February.
Text/Wei Jinqiao
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This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.