Will the "88 curse" continue to work?
What is the "88 curse", that is, when the position level of stock funds reaches about 88%, the stock market may form a staged top and become a sensitive signal that the stock market peaks.
In fact, the "88 curse" is quite effective. Whenever the market faces an important pressure area, the "88 curse" begins to "show the spirit", and the subsequent stock market mainly falls.
In the second half of 20 14, the A-share market rose rarely, and the cumulative maximum increase during this period exceeded 15%. However, it is a pity that when the market challenged the 2400 mark, the "88" curse of the stock market began to appear again.
The data shows that on September 5, 20 14/kloc-0, the average position of open-ended partial stock funds in the sample increased by% compared with the previous period, and the average position of equity funds increased by% compared with the previous period. The average position of hybrid funds increased by% compared with the previous period.
In addition, the fund position data of many other institutions show a strong "88 curse" color. Among them, according to institutional statistics, the average position of stock-based open-end funds has increased by%. There is no doubt that the fund position data at that time was very close to the level of "88 curse".
So, why does the "88 curse" always work?
In fact, Public Offering of Fund-type fund institutions still account for a large proportion of the market. At the same time, the behavior of fund Masukura implies the operation direction of small and medium investors to some extent. When the bullish atmosphere in the market is greatly improved, it will face a short counterattack.
However, from another perspective, the influence of the "88 curse" is gradually decreasing.
On the one hand, although Public Offering of Fund's market influence is dependent, private equity funds, insurance funds and other institutions are gradually growing, while Public Offering of Fund's influence on the market is gradually weakening. On the other hand, with the implementation of the Measures for the Administration of Public Offering Funds, the minimum position of stock funds was set at 80%, thus changing the previous situation that the lower limit of public offering funds was 60% and the upper limit was 95%.
It is worth mentioning that for a long time in the past, China had strict requirements for Public Offering of Fund's position control. Among them, the lower limit of stock fund positions is set at 60%, and the upper limit is set at 95%. This provides a great space for the operation of the manager Public Offering of Fund.
At this time, when the stock fund position is close to 88%, it indicates that the space for fund to add positions will be quite limited. On the contrary, due to the lower limit of 60% positions, there is a huge space for funds to lighten their positions. Therefore, the influence of the "88 curse" is inevitable.
Obviously, the new regulations will further narrow the operating space of Public Offering of Fund, which will not only test the operating skills of fund managers, but also play a very good role in stabilizing the market. However, as far as it is concerned, there are still many Public Offering of Fund that have not reached the minimum position requirement of 80%, and its implementation efficiency is questionable.
Throughout the mature and developed capital market, the overall fund position level has remained at a high level for a long time.
Taking the American market as an example, the average position of domestic decentralized equity funds has remained above 95%, while the position of general funds has remained above 80% for a long time.
For local fund institutions, because the long-term running trend of the market remains upward, once the fund chooses the band operation mode, it is easy to miss the rising opportunity of the market, thus reducing the overall return on investment of the fund. At this point, more local fund institutions are more keen on long-term holding rather than band operation.
On the other hand, in the domestic market, the overall return on investment in the market is low due to the long-term uncertainty of the market. If the fund institutions adopt a long-term holding method, it will be difficult to obtain a better return on investment and even record losses. Therefore, domestic fund institutions are more keen to follow suit and make positive progress. In fact, this can be seen from the change range of domestic stock fund positions.
There is no denying that this is the difference between a mature market and an immature market.
Therefore, for the A-share market, due to the unreasonable design of market rules, it is easier for large institutions and large funds to manipulate the whole market. Once there is any trouble in the market, the abnormal performance of fund institutions is enough to make the market fluctuate greatly. Therefore, as the weak side of retail investors, the destructive power of the "88 curse" can not be underestimated. With the gradual maturity of China A-share market, the "88 curse" of fund positions will gradually emerge.