In 2007, China's cotton price showed a slight upward trend in fluctuations, and the purchase price of new cotton during the centralized acquisition period was higher than that of the same period last year. Affected by the relationship between supply and demand and the international market price, it is predicted that the cotton price level will show an upward trend in 2008. I. Operation of Cotton Price in 2007 (I) The cotton purchase price showed a steady but rising trend, and the average price during the centralized purchase period was significantly higher than the same period last year. In the first three quarters, the purchase price of 328-grade cotton fluctuated between 580 yuan and 620 yuan every 50kg (the same below), with a steady increase. During the centralized acquisition period of new cotton, in the first stage, after the new cotton was weighed in September, the price went down. At the beginning of the month, the average purchase price of 328-grade seed cotton in the main producing areas was 629 yuan, down 7.7 1% compared with the same period of last year, and then it fell all the way, and the price dropped to 6 10.76 yuan by the end of September. The second stage is from the beginning of 65438+1October to the middle of165438+1October, and the price turns from falling to rising and keeps rising, reaching 642.96 yuan in the middle of165438+1October, reaching the acquisition of new cotton this year. The third stage is 165438+ 10. By the end of the year, the price was generally stable, with a slight decline. 65438+6 19.87 yuan at the end of February, up 16.02% year-on-year. From September to June, 65438+February, the average purchase price of new cotton was 628.09 yuan, up 7.60% year-on-year. The average purchase price of cotton in the whole year was 609.87 yuan, down 2.82% from the previous year. (2) The spot sales price fluctuates greatly. 10 The arrival price of cotton spinning enterprises in provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities shows a rising, falling, rising and adjusting state. 1-rose month by month in March, fell back in April, and the price rebounded in May. After reaching the highest price this year in August, the price level fluctuated slightly from September to June, and decreased slightly. In 65438+February, the average arrival prices of cotton of 328 and 229 grades in all provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities 10 cotton spinning enterprises 136 14 yuan/ton and 14074 yuan/ton increased by 7.04% and 7.05% respectively compared with the beginning of the year. The average prices in August were 14 19 1 yuan/ton and1451yuan/ton respectively, which were the highest prices in the whole year. (3) Futures prices rise in fluctuations. The cotton futures price of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fluctuated and rose. The closing price of the latest contract rose from 13 and 500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 14 and 440 yuan/ton in February/4, up 6.96% and 3.36% respectively compared with the beginning of the year and the same period last year. The price of cotton futures in the international market rose more than that in the domestic market, among which the closing price of the New York Mercantile Exchange's recent contract on June 65438+February 3/KLOC-0 was 69.57 cents/pound, up 24.48% and 22.07% respectively compared with the beginning of the year and the same period last year. Two. The analysis and forecast of cotton price trend in 2008 is influenced by the rising cost, the supply and demand situation of cotton at home and abroad and the rising prices of other agricultural products. It is predicted that the overall level of cotton price in China will rise in fluctuations in 2008, but it is less likely that the price will rise and fall sharply. (1) In 2007/08, the domestic cotton output remained high, but the planting cost will continue to increase. Authoritative institutions at home and abroad predict that China's cotton yield is likely to be high in 2007/08, and China Cotton Association predicts that China's total cotton output is basically the same as last year, and the output is at a historical high. According to the report released by the US Department of Agriculture on June 5438+ 10, 2008, the cotton output in China is 7565438+2000 tons, which is lower than that reported in February 65438, but still higher than that of the previous year. Affected by the rising price of agricultural materials, the cost of cotton planting will continue to increase this year. According to some data, the cotton planting cost in China is estimated to be 930.8 yuan per mu in 2007, up by 7.07% over the previous year, of which the seed cost increased by 6.2 1%, the fertilizer cost increased by 3. 12%, the pesticide cost increased by 2.79%, and the leasing cost increased by 1.97%. (2) The growth rate of domestic cotton demand began to slow down. China cotton textile industry is gradually showing the characteristics of slow growth. According to customs statistics, in 2007, China's clothing and garment accessories exports were11507 million US dollars, up 20.9% year-on-year, down 8 percentage points from the previous year, while textile yarns, fabrics and products exports were 56 10 billion US dollars, up 15%, down 3.7% from the previous year. This slowdown will continue in 2008. China's textile importers will predict that the growth rate of China's textile and garment exports will slow down to about 15% in 2008, and there will be no major breakthrough in cotton demand. In addition, the sharp decline in the proportion of spinning cotton is also one of the reasons for the decline in cotton demand. In 2007, China's total chemical fiber output may exceed 2 1 10,000 tons, and it is still increasing at the rate of 15%, especially with the increase of viscose staple fiber and polyester staple fiber production capacity, and the corresponding spinning and cotton blending ratio tends to decline. According to the chemical fiber output in 2007, the spinning and cotton blending ratio of domestic enterprises is below 55%, which is lower than the previous ratio of more than 60%. (3) The cotton price in the international market is on the rise, which has a certain supporting effect on the domestic market price. In recent years, with the increase of output, international cotton stocks have been on the rise. At the end of 2004- 2007, the cotton stock remained at a high level of over100000 tons, but this pattern will change this year. According to USDA's estimation, the peak of global cotton production in recent five years appeared in 2006/07, and the global output was 26.578 million tons. The peak inventory at the end of the period also appeared last year, reaching 6.5438+0.3273 million tons. In 2007/08, because the demand exceeded the output, the International Cotton Advisory Committee held that the global cotton production and demand gap this year was 1.36 million tons, while the inventory was1.654.38+.75 million tons, down 1.37% from the previous year. The price of cotton in the international market this year is 67 cents/pound, 8 cents higher than the previous year. At the same time, it can not be ignored that in the past two years, the prices of agricultural products such as wheat, soybeans and corn have risen sharply, and the prices of cotton at home and abroad have been underestimated. Changes in the price relationship between cotton and other agricultural products have pushed cotton prices to continue to rise to a certain extent. Three. Suggestions In order to promote cotton production this year and strive to keep cotton prices at a relatively reasonable and stable level, the following suggestions are put forward: 1. Strengthen cotton production, demand and price monitoring to ensure the relative accuracy of statistical data and lay a solid foundation for further macro-control. In 2006/07, cotton production was greatly adjusted. For example, the relevant departments raised the cotton output from 6.5 million tons to 7.7 million tons, with an increase range of 6.5438+0.2 million tons. There are many reasons for this situation. For example, the cotton planting area in China is vast and scattered, which is relatively difficult to count. However, this kind of error in statistical data affects the judgment of backward trend and the implementation of macro-control policies to a certain extent. The same problem exists in the judgment of demand. Therefore, it is necessary to further improve the quantity monitoring of cotton production and demand, and verify the authenticity and accuracy of the monitoring data through certain means, so as to lay a solid foundation for macro-control and the healthy development of cotton industry. Second, pay close attention to the cotton market, industry and price, and be alert to the sharp rise in phased and structural prices. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, cotton prices should keep rising steadily, and it is unlikely to rise sharply. But the relationship between supply and demand we are facing is not only global, but also local, not only static, but also dynamic. Last year, the market generally believed that the gap between domestic supply and demand was several million, and the potential demand was very strong. However, facts have proved that the theoretical gap may not become a fact, and the phased and structural changes in the relationship between supply and demand will have a substantial impact on prices. What needs to be vigilant is that once this change is amplified at a certain stage, the market reaction will often exceed expectations. Specifically, imports have been decreasing recently, and raw material stocks are at a low level. Once it reaches qualitative change, it will probably drive cotton prices to soar. Third, pay attention to the new situation and new problems, make full use of various control means, and strive to keep cotton prices from fluctuating greatly. In recent years, the state has regulated the market through quotas, purchasing and storage, tariffs and other means, which has played an important role in maintaining the balance between supply and demand of cotton and keeping the price basically stable. However, the problems faced by the cotton industry in China this year are different from those in the past, mainly the changes in the overall economic environment, including the current global economic slowdown, inflationary pressures and expectations, tight monetary policy, and the possible further appreciation of the RMB, which have a great impact on the uncertainty of the cotton industry chain in China. Therefore, we should pay close attention to the new problems and situations that may appear in the market, constantly improve and develop the existing policy control means, and strive to keep cotton prices from fluctuating.