May is the traditional off-season for egg sales. Because it is humid in May, it is not suitable for storage, so the price of eggs will go down in May. In Zhejiang, the lowest price can reach RMB/kg. 20 13 The national average wholesale price of eggs in May was RMB/kg on May 8th and RMB/kg on May 20th. September is the traditional peak season for egg sales. In September of 20 13, the national average wholesale price of eggs was RMB/kg on September 9th and RMB/kg on September 26th.
Impact of avian influenza: risk multiplication
Since the news of bird flu came out, the contracts in 2005 and 2009 have plummeted. There is a simple reason. When you hear how many people are infected with bird flu and how many people die every day, ask yourself and people around you, do you dare to buy raw eggs? Go to the market again and see how many people are willing to buy eggs. The answer is clear. But then the 05 contract continued to plummet, and the 09 contract suddenly soared. Why?
From the analysis of the characteristics of bird flu, bird flu survives and spreads at low temperature, and dies and disappears at high temperature.
1. With the continuous spread of avian influenza, every news released is negative, which is a blow to the market and will lead people to be reluctant to buy eggs. Therefore, in the initial stage, the output will not drop significantly, but the demand will plummet, and the supply and demand structure that determines the price will inevitably lead to a downward trend. I don't want the final psychological breakdown to inevitably lead to low-priced shipments. Therefore, as long as the bird flu epidemic is still affecting, the price of eggs will definitely skyrocket in May.
2. With the continuous spread of avian influenza epidemic, the impact is getting bigger and bigger, and the risk is getting bigger and bigger. Once infected, there will inevitably be mass killing of laying hens. Even if we are not killed, let's take a look at the situation of losing money in raising chickens. At least the chickens are unwilling to make up for the natural loss (such as death and stopping laying eggs). This situation continued until May, when there were fewer laying hens and the output of eggs decreased, so the supply of eggs in September would be greatly reduced.
The impact of avian influenza vaccine: the spread can not be controlled
Shanghai announced the development of H7N9 vaccine, which can enter clinical trials in March at the earliest, weakening the impact of bird flu on egg futures. In February 10, 1 1, the 05 contract, which plunged in the previous period, rebounded rapidly, and the 09 contract, which soared in the previous period, fell rapidly, and a wave of avian influenza vaccine market emerged. But think again, it will take at least half a year for the seed strain of H7N9 avian influenza vaccine to enter the clinical trial and be applied, and it is still risky, which has almost no substantial impact on the egg price in May and September this year. Think again, even with the help of avian influenza vaccine, patients can recover and avoid death, but the damage to body organs is great, and many injuries are lifelong. As long as the spread is not effectively controlled, will you risk getting bird flu to buy live chickens and raw eggs?
Therefore, the 05 contract, which rose strongly in February 1 1, was hit by the bird flu vaccine market in early trading, and it seemed to reverse after finishing at the bottom, causing a lot of funds to rush to the bottom. As a result, it failed to stop the return of the trend, and it was wiped out in the rapid decline in the afternoon, and the decline will be smoother in the future.
If you want to empty 05 contracts, you will be empty, and if you want to buy more 09 contracts, because the trend determined by fundamentals tells us to do so, and the market will certainly notice and realize this. Even if it is as strong as an institution, it cannot be divorced from the fundamentals and compete with the whole trend!