1October 6th, 65438, domestic Tesla reduced its price by 48,000 yuan, including 30,000 yuan for Model and 10,000 yuan for ModelY, all hitting record lows.

Last year1October 24th 10,1October 8th 165438, and on February 7th, Tesla launched three preferential activities. Including this time, it's the fourth price reduction in three months. At the same time, in the past 2022, Tesla delivered 65,438+0,365,438+0,000 vehicles worldwide, which did not meet the expectation of 654,380+0.5 million vehicles.

Why does Tesla frequently wave the "price reduction sword"? Is it because of the pressure of sales or other reasons?

In three months, Tesla became a "price butcher" four times.

Tesla China official website shows that the prices of 1.6 Model3 and ModelY have dropped significantly. Among them, the Model3 rear-drive version has a price reduction of 36,000 yuan, and the high-performance version has a price reduction of 20,000 yuan; The price of ModelY rear-drive version was reduced by 29,000 yuan, the price of long-life version was reduced by 48,000 yuan and the price of high-performance version was reduced by 38,000 yuan.

In this regard, Tao Linfa Weibo, vice president of Tesla's foreign affairs, said: "Behind Tesla's price adjustment, it covers countless engineering innovations, which is essentially a unique and excellent cost control law, including but not limited to vehicle integration design, production line design, supply chain management, and even millisecond-level optimization of the cooperation route of robotic arms, starting from the' first principle' and insisting on cost pricing."

In an interview, Lin Shi, secretary general of China Europe Association Intelligent Networked Automobile, said that Tesla Model3 and ModelY have been launched for a long time, especially ModelY was a product five years ago. As a product five years ago, its costs have been greatly diluted.

In fact, in the past three months, Tesla has carried out four preferential activities. In 20221October 24th 10, Tesla announced that it would adjust its selling price, with the highest drop of 37,000 yuan. After enjoying the state subsidy, the starting price of ModelY rear-wheel drive version is 288,900 yuan, and the starting price of Model3 rear-wheel drive version is 265,900 yuan.

165438+20221October 8th, Tesla's official Weibo released the "subsidy scheme for limited-time car insurance":165438+1October 8th (inclusive) to165438+/kloc. From 65438+February 1 (inclusive) to 65438+February 3 1 (inclusive), the balance can be reduced by 4,000 yuan.

On February 7, 2022, at 65438, Tesla once again launched "superimposed welfare". From February 7, 65438 to February 7, 65438, 3 1, buy and deliver qualified Tesla cars, and enjoy an extra discount of 6000 yuan.

Why do you cut prices one after another? Competition in the field of new energy vehicles is fierce

Four discounts in three months highlight the urgency of Tesla's promotion. Why did Tesla cut prices sharply in a short time? According to Tao Lin in Weibo, this is due to Tesla's strong cost control ability (bringing cost reduction) and its insistence on cost pricing.

Wang Peng, a researcher at the Beijing Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview that we need to look at why Tesla cut its price at this point in time from a broader perspective.

"The big overall background is that the competition in the future new energy vehicle market is very fierce. As the world's leading giant, Tesla has a certain market influence and is sought after by fans, but it has been eroded by other related manufacturers in recent years. " Wang Peng said.

Specifically, Wang Peng believes that Tesla is subject to "all-round, three-dimensional" competition: on the one hand, traditional automobile giants including German cars, American cars and Japanese cars are developing electric vehicles, whether hybrid or pure electric, which will erode the Tesla market to a certain extent; On the other hand, the competition in China market is fierce. BYD and Wei Xiaoli compete with Tesla in price and performance.

In addition to the "stock market" competition mentioned above, Tesla is also subject to the "incremental market" competition. Wang Peng said that many domestic Internet and mobile phone companies have entered the track of new energy vehicles, including Huawei, Xiaomi, Baidu and Ali, and all want to build cars.

"So for Tesla, high, medium and low-end products have been subjected to three-dimensional competition. In this context, Tesla needs to further enhance its brand influence and expand the market better on the premise of ensuring its own quality and brand value. Then price reduction is a very good way. " Wang Peng said.

According to the data of the Federation, Tesla Giga Shanghai delivered 55,796 vehicles in June 5438+February, down 44% from the previous month and down 2 1% year-on-year. Earlier, it was reported that the Shanghai Super Factory had stopped production on holiday. Although Tesla responded that "the whole vehicle production will carry out the annual production line maintenance work as planned", it also triggered the "bad sale" of Tesla in the market.

Throughout 2022, Tesla's global delivery volume was 65,438+0,365,438+0,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 40%, which did not reach the expectation of 654,380+0.5 million vehicles. In the same year, BYD's annual sales exceeded 6.5438+0.86 million vehicles (hybrid+pure electricity), an increase of over 654.38+0.5 times year-on-year, and successfully won the throne of "the first sales volume of new energy vehicles in the world".

Zhang Xiaorong, president of Shenzhen Institute of Science and Technology, told reporters that Tesla is facing huge market competition pressure, and the rise of domestic brands has carved up the cake. BYD's sales have surpassed Tesla's, so Tesla wants to fight a "price war".

Under the pressure of sales growth, Tesla's capacity growth has maintained a high speed. According to Tesla data, in 2022, the company produced 765,438+065,438+077 model/X products, with a delivery volume of 66,705, and the company produced 65,438+0298,434 Model3/Y products with a delivery volume of 65,438+024,765,438.

Lin Shi told reporters: "Tesla's current global production capacity is higher than the current demand for Tesla, which shows that it is facing the problem of' oversupply' in labor. Therefore, people who didn't want to buy Tesla must buy Tesla's Model3 and ModelY by reducing the price, thus further increasing their order volume. "

According to the data provided by TroyTeslike, a Tesla production and sales data tracking service provider, as of February 8, 2022, Tesla's global order volume has dropped from 476,000 in July to 6,543,800+0.63 million, while the order volume in China market has dropped from 6,543,800+0.76 million in July to 5,879. It can be seen that the increase in production capacity and the rapid decline in orders in hand have brought certain pressure to Tesla, which has also become one of the driving forces for its price reduction.

Why does Tesla "fall" and domestic brands "rise"?

While Tesla waved the "price butcher knife" sharply, many domestic new energy car companies started the price increase model.

On June 365438+February 3, 2022 1 day, BYD Auto official Weibo issued the Notice on Formal Adjustment of Vehicle Prices, saying that BYD Auto decided to officially adjust the official guidance price of relevant vehicles on June 65438+1October1day, 2023, with the increase range ranging from 2,000 yuan to 6,000 yuan. It is understood that this is the fourth time that BYD has officially announced the price increase since 2022.

In addition to BYD, GAC Aian also announced that it will raise the price of related models by 3,000 yuan to 8,000 yuan in 2023. On October 4th, 65438/KLOC-0, Nezha Auto also officially announced the price adjustment, including the price increase of 3,000 yuan for S in Nezha, 6,000 yuan for U-II in Nezha and 4,000 yuan for V in Nezha. Changan Deep Blue, Zero Run and other car companies also joined the price increase army.

Why does Tesla cut prices, but many domestic new energy car companies have increased prices?

Wang Peng believes that Tesla can reduce the price, on the one hand, because its own profit is high enough, and to a certain extent, reducing the price can better benefit the market, better attract public attention and get orders. On the other hand, it is also playing the "differentiation strategy". Under the background of the gradual withdrawal of "state compensation", domestic new energy automobile manufacturers, whether high-end, medium-end or low-end, have thinner profit margins than Tesla, so they can only maintain profits by raising prices or reduce the decline of profits. Under this circumstance, Tesla will "cut prices against the trend", and its attention and potential order volume will be significantly different from other car companies.

Zhang Xiaorong also believes that Tesla's price reduction is because Tesla's profit margin is relatively large, and lowering the price can highlight the product advantages. The price increase of domestic cars is due to the withdrawal of state subsidies. Because domestic cars are mainly in low-priced areas, the profit margin is relatively small, and it is necessary to make up for the profit by raising prices.

Then why is the profit margin of China's new energy car companies not as good as Tesla's, thus lacking the "card" of price reduction?

Lin Shi told reporters: "I remember last time at the Guangzhou Auto Show, Gu Huinan, general manager of Guangzhou Automobile Aian, said that if there were no state subsidies last year, enterprises in China, including BYD, would lose money. Because China's new energy vehicles are generally small in scale and low in price. "

Lin Shi said that automobile companies such as Weilai, Ideality and Tucki are relatively small. Even if the price is high, they can't escape the loss. Guangzhou Automobile Aian and other car companies have a certain scale, but they sell cheaply and it is difficult to make money. Tesla is different. In the third quarter of last year, its net profit was $3.29 billion, surpassing Toyota, and its net profit of bicycles was eight times that of Toyota.

According to the data released by various new energy vehicle companies, in 2022, Weilai Automobile delivered122,000 new vehicles, up 34% year-on-year, Xpeng Automobile delivered120,800 vehicles, up 23% year-on-year, and Li delivered133,200 vehicles, up 47.2% year-on-year. The net profits of Weilai, Tucki and Ideality in the first three quarters of 2022 were 87 1.2 billion yuan, 6.778 billion yuan and 2.269 billion yuan respectively.

It can be seen that Tesla can become the most profitable new energy automobile company in the world because it has achieved "high price" while "high sales volume". As mentioned above, Tesla's sales growth rate is under pressure at present, and it is challenged by many competitors in the new energy vehicle market. Therefore, it is necessary to find a new balance between the "seesaw" of sales volume and price, which also constitutes the reason for Tesla's sharp price reduction.

Hardware price reduction and software price increase, Tesla may be the "second apple"

In addition, we can't treat the price reduction of Tesla's cars in isolation, because it not only reduces the price of hardware, but also increases the price of software.

Last September, Tesla raised the price of FSD (fully automatic driving) software. The price of beta software in North America increased from $65,438+$2,000 to $65,438+$5,000, with a price increase of 25%, while the subscription fee remained unchanged at $65,438+$0.99 per month. At the beginning of last year, the price of Tesla FSD software rose from $654.38+00,000 to $654.38+02,000, twice a year, with a cumulative price increase of 50%.

Lin Shi believes that Tesla is actually committed to being a civilian brand of electric vehicles, and it will realize its future layout in a large-scale way. This layout does not rely entirely on hardware to make money, but also on software, relying on its APP and autonomous driving ability to make money, which is its main profit direction in the future.

"But this way of making profits is mainly supported by quantity. If Tesla does not have a certain number of users, it will not be enough to support its future software revenue. " Lin Shi said.

Therefore, it can be said that the price reduction of Tesla hardware is also opening up space for the growth of software business and expanding the user base of software business. According to Toubao Research Institute, Tesla's software business has three revenue-generating models, namely FSD paid service, software application mall and car networking subscription service.

Among them, FSD paid service is an important source of profit for Tesla software. Using FSD automatic driving can realize automatic parking, intelligent calling and other functions. In the software application mall, customers can purchase all kinds of software performance update packages according to their needs, including assisted driving, automatic driving function package update packages, FSD and various performance upgrade packages, car games and so on. The monthly subscription price of advanced car entertainment service is 9.9 USD, and the annual subscription price is 99 USD, which can provide users with karaoke, cinema mode, web browsing, real-time traffic query and other services.

According to the research report of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Securities, by 2025, Tesla software revenue is expected to reach $21600 million, accounting for 18% of automobile sales revenue, and CAGR (compound annual growth rate) will be 63% five years later.

This "software and hardware take all" profit model is close to Apple. From fiscal year 20 12 to fiscal year 20021,Apple's software and service revenue increased from119.93 million dollars to 68.425 billion dollars, accounting for 7.66% to 18.7% of the total revenue.

By the fourth fiscal quarter of fiscal year 2022, Apple's software service fee revenue has reached $65,438+$0,965,438+$88 million, exceeding the sum of the revenues from MAC ($65,438+$0,654,38+$05,080) and iPad ($765,438+$74 million), making it an important revenue source for Apple.

Tesla has raised the price of software while raising the price of cars, perhaps because it wants to be the "second apple" and earn high profits from software services in the future.

The price of lithium carbonate has fallen, and the problem of high cost of car companies has ushered in an "antidote"?

At present, the price of lithium carbonate continues to fall, and the cost of new energy vehicles is expected to decline. Does this also provide some confidence for Tesla to cut prices?

Previously, the reasons for the price increase of BYD, GAC Ai 'an and other car companies included "the soaring price of upstream raw materials" in addition to the cancellation of "state compensation". As the key raw material of power battery, lithium carbonate is called "white oil", and its price affects the cost of new energy vehicles.

In the past two years, due to the imbalance between supply and demand, the price of lithium carbonate has risen sharply. The data shows that in 2022, the average price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate was 567,000 yuan/ton, which was nearly 12 times higher than that of 44,000 yuan/ton two years ago.

Since the end of June 1 1, the price of lithium carbonate has been falling continuously. According to the data, the domestic price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 50 15000 yuan/ton in 20231October, which was more than 1 1% lower than the peak of 567000 yuan/ton in1October.

Has the price of lithium carbonate reached an "inflection point"? Is the cost pressure of new energy car companies expected to ease?

Lin Shi believes that the price inflection point of lithium ore depends on whether sodium ion batteries can be successfully mass-produced next year. If it can be mass-produced, it will share part of the pressure of lithium batteries, and the demand for lithium ore will drop. At the same time, it also depends on whether the new energy vehicle market can reach the 9 million vehicles expected by the China Automobile Association next year. If the economy is weak in 2023, the demand for automobile consumption will decline as expected by Musk, and the price of upstream raw materials will inevitably turn. Otherwise, the price of lithium ore will fluctuate.

Chen Jia, a researcher at the Institute of International Monetary Studies of Renmin University of China and an independent international strategy researcher, said in an interview that since the beginning of this year, the risk of global economic recession has been relatively clear, the price stability of the upstream market of the new energy industry chain is likely to be further damaged, and there is a great possibility of short-term price shocks in the future.

Zhang Xiaorong believes that the supply and demand of lithium materials is still tense, and the supply of lithium ore has not increased significantly, but the demand for lithium ore is increasing day by day, so the price of lithium carbonate will remain high.

Shanxi Securities Research Report quoted Longzhong information data as saying that in the medium and long term, the production and supply of lithium ferrous phosphate will continue to maintain a relatively large growth rate in the next five years. By 2027, the compound growth rate of lithium ferrous phosphate capacity will be 4 1.36%, and the compound growth rate of output will be 4 1.75%. It is expected that the domestic price of lithium carbonate will be supported by the increasing demand for lithium ferrous phosphate.

On the whole, the price of lithium carbonate is still in a state of high fluctuation, and it will take some time for the price fluctuation of lithium mine resources from upstream to downstream, so it is difficult to significantly reduce the cost of new energy vehicle enterprises in the short term.

Tesla's share price continued to plummet, and its market value has evaporated by "7 BYD"

In fact, Tesla's recent challenge is not only the decline in sales, but also the management dilemma reflected by the stock price crash. At the close of 65438+ on October 5, 2023/kloc-0, the share price of Tesla was 1 10.34 USD/share, a decrease of 2.9%.

In the past year, Tesla's share price has fallen by 70%. Compared with the market value of $65,438+0.10.8 trillion in April last year, the market value of Tesla (closing at10.5) today is only $348.426 billion, with an evaporation of more than $830 billion (about RMB 5.7 trillion). By the close of 65438+10.6, BYD's market value was 774.946 billion yuan. Converted, Tesla's market value reduced by one year has exceeded "7 BYD".

Musk's wealth has also shrunk dramatically. According to Bloomberg News, Tesla and Twitter CEO Musk became the first people in history to lose $200 billion due to Tesla's stock price crash.

According to Forbes real-time ranking data, as of 9: 00 pm on June 6th, 65438/kloc-0, Musk was worth138.4 billion US dollars, which was 53.5 billion US dollars behind bernard arnault, CEO of LVMH Group, the "new richest man in the world".

Tesla's plummeting market value was also affected by Musk's acquisition of Twitter. Investors are worried that Musk will spend a lot of energy on Twitter governance and leave Tesla alone.

In June 5438+February last year, Musk also voted on Twitter, asking whether netizens should resign as CEO of Twitter, and 57.5% of Twitter users voted "Musk should resign as CEO of Twitter". In this regard, Musk said on Twitter: "Once I find someone stupid enough to accept this job, I will resign as CEO. After that, I will only be responsible for managing the software and server team. "

Chen Jia believes that Tesla, as the global leader of new energy vehicles, the biggest challenge it encounters is not the demand of China market, nor the supply-side capacity, but the strategic management of the enterprise. These problems have been highlighted in Musk's previous investment in the currency circle and his recent acquisition of Twitter.

"In fact, as early as five years ago, Tesla exposed this problem as a new energy vehicle manufacturer. Due to the fraudulent financial data, it was investigated by the US regulatory authorities, which led to a serious credit crisis in its financing on Wall Street. Although Tesla relied on Musk's strong personal charm and international operation to tide over the difficulties and once stood at the top of the market, its performance did not change Tesla's loopholes in corporate governance structure and corporate strategic positioning. " Chen Jia said.

Chen Jia said that Chinese-funded enterprises often pay attention to enterprise development and try to avoid politicization of business issues. However, Musk has recently been involved in a "political storm" on Twitter, which shows that his thinking focus has obviously deviated from the strategic development of new energy enterprises.

"This phenomenon has already appeared: in recent years, Musk has repeatedly used Tesla's price and payment method as a lever to cooperate with ARKK fund manager Kathy Wood to speculate on Bitcoin dogecoin. When the domestic market is still touting, many overseas investors have many doubts about their disregard of corporate governance and financial firewalls. " Chen Jia said.

Therefore, in Chen Jia's eyes, although Musk is a technical genius and business leader, his distinctive personal style also makes his enterprise prone to huge fluctuations in value.

After waving the "price butcher knife", can Tesla successfully meet the challenges of the capital market and the new energy vehicle market? Will Musk's recent "Twitter quagmire" further affect Tesla? These questions may take time to give answers.