On Monday, 1987, 10, 19, the new york stock market crashed, which was the biggest crash in history. The Dow Jones index plunged 508.32 points, or 22.6%, in one day, the highest drop in a single day since 194 1. Within 6.5 hours, the new york stock index lost 500 billion US dollars, equivalent to 1/8 of the annual gross national product of the United States. The stock market crash shocked the whole financial circle and produced a "domino effect" in the global stock market. Stock markets in London, Frankfurt, Tokyo, Sydney, Hong Kong, Singapore, etc. were all strongly impacted, and the stock fell by more than 10%. The collapse of the stock market caused great panic among investors in western countries. Many millionaires became poor overnight, and thousands of people broke down and committed suicide by jumping off a building.

This day was called "Black Monday" by financial circles, and The New York Times called it "the worst day in the history of Wall Street".

Direct cause

Stock market crisis

After the stock market crash, many people put forward different theories. The main reasons for the stock market crash include: program trading, high stock price, insufficient market liquidity and herd mentality. (1) The most widely accepted theory is that the stock market crash is caused by program trading. Program trading, which uses computer programs to calculate stock price changes and trading strategies in real time, gradually became popular on Wall Street in the late1970s. Program trading enables large-scale stock trading and futures trading to be conducted at the same time. After the stock market crash, many people said that when the computer program saw the stock price drop, it joined the stock selling according to the mechanism set by the program long ago, forming a vicious circle, accelerating the stock price drop, and the stock price drop made the program sell more stocks. (2) Portfolio insurance is also one of the reasons. The so-called portfolio insurance is to sell stocks when the market falls to stop losses. There is a premise here that there must be potential recipients. But on that day, all the receivers disappeared, and the operation mode of portfolio insurance pushed the stock price down rapidly. In addition, portfolio insurance relies on almost unlimited liquidity, but liquidity does not always exist, and liquidity sometimes dries up. This investment strategy is not feasible when everyone wants to sell. (3) Economist Richard Roll believes that market globalization is the main reason, because program trading is only prevalent in the United States, while Hong Kong and Australian stock markets with few program trading took the lead in falling on 10 and 19, so the sharp fluctuation of a major stock market spread to global stock markets in one day, because of market globalization.

Initial condition

There are many reasons for the stock market crash, but at least one of the following conditions should be met: (1) A country's macroeconomic fundamentals have deteriorated seriously, making it difficult for listed companies to operate; (2) Low-cost direct financing leads to "inefficient" financial and "inefficient" economic development, which greatly leads to a bubble and the stock price is seriously overvalued. (3) There are serious defects in the listing and trading system of the stock market itself, which leads to the prevalence of speculation and the loss of investment value and resource allocation function of the stock market. (4) Political, military, natural disasters and other crises have seriously hit the confidence of the securities market, and the securities market has psychological panic and cannot continue to operate normally.

327 Debt Event

During the period of 1995, the national macro-control put forward measures to significantly reduce the inflation rate within three years. By the end of 1994 and the beginning of 1995, the inflation rate was controlled at around 2.5%. As we all know, during the three years from 19 1 to 1994, the inflation rate in China has remained high, and the discount rate for hedging has remained at the level of 7-8%. According to these data, Guan Jinsheng, then general manager of IWC and godfather of CITIC Construction Investment, predicted that the discount rate of 327 national debt could not be increased, even if it was not reduced, it would be maintained at 8%. According to this calculation, the 327 national debt will be paid at the price of 132 yuan. Therefore, when the market price fluctuates between 147 and 148 yuan, IWC and Liaoning Guofa Group become the main short sellers in the market. On the other hand, China Economic Development Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as China Economic Development Co., Ltd.) belongs to the Ministry of Finance, and it is reasonable to think that it already knows that the Ministry of Finance will raise the discount rate to realize the preservation of value. Therefore, Zhong Jingkai became the main force of bulls. 1February 23, 995, the Ministry of Finance announced that 327 national debt 148.50 yuan was paid, and the short judgment was completely wrong. On the same day, Economic Development led many parties to buy in large quantities while taking advantage of the profits, pushing the price to 15 1.98 yuan. Later, when the situation was unfavorable to the bears, Liao Gaoling and Plateau brothers quickly closed 500,000 short positions and bought 500,000 short positions backhand. 327 national debt 1 minute rose by 2 yuan. This means a heavy blow to all countries-a huge loss of 6 billion yuan. In order to protect his own interests, Guan Jinsheng made crazy measures to avoid huge losses eight minutes before the close: overdraft to sell treasury bonds futures and short treasury bonds. At 4: 22 pm, on the premise that the deposit on hand was not enough, the empty side suddenly launched an attack. First, 500,000 people blew the price from 15 1.30 yuan to 150 yuan, then to 148 yuan, and finally to 147.40 yuan, with a huge selling order of 7.3 million people. And the face value of this 7.3 million selling order is 654.38+04.6 billion yuan. On the same day, all parties who opened the market broke their positions. Due to the rush of time, many parties had no time to react, which made this fierce long-short strangulation finally end in the profit of the world. On the other hand, the bulls represented by China Economic Development Bank suffered huge losses of about 4 billion yuan. On the evening of February 23rd 10, after an emergency meeting, the Shanghai Stock Exchange announced that all transactions after February 23rd 16: 22 and 13 seconds were abnormally invalid. After this adjustment, the turnover of national debt on that day was 540 billion yuan, and the closing price of 327 varieties on that day was 15 1.30 yuan. In other words, all the long selling orders within 8 minutes before the close of the day are invalid, and the redemption price of 327 products is determined by the membership agreement. This decision of the Shanghai Stock Exchange instantly wiped out the later operation of the world. Global losses of 5.6 billion, on the verge of bankruptcy. On February 24th, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued the Emergency Notice on Strengthening the Supervision of Treasury bond futures trading, which made six provisions on the supervision of treasury bond futures trading, namely, 1, and implemented the price limit system of treasury bond futures trading from February 24th, 2, strictly strengthened the management of the maximum position contract limit, 3, established the customer position limit regulations, 4, prohibited member companies from borrowing positions from each other, 5. 6. Strictly manage the use of treasury bond futures funds. At the same time, in order to maintain market stability, a special session of agreement clearing was held.

Subprime loan crisis in 2007

On February 3, 2007, 13, New Century Finance issued a profit warning for the fourth quarter of 2006. HSBC Holdings announced its performance, and the US subprime mortgage reserve increased by 7 billion US dollars, totaling 654.38+00.573 billion US dollars, an increase of 33.6%; As soon as the news came out, the stock market plummeted that day, and the Hang Seng Index fell by 777 points, or 4%. . Facing the debt of $654.38+07.4 billion from Wall Street, New Century Financial Company, the second largest subprime mortgage company in the United States, announced on April 2, 2007 that it filed for bankruptcy protection and laid off 54% of its employees. On August 2, 2007, Deutsche Industrial Bank announced a profit warning, and later estimated a loss of 8.2 billion euros, because its "Rhineland Fund" with a scale of 654.38+0.27 billion euros and the bank itself participated in the US real estate subprime mortgage market a little and suffered huge losses. The Bundesbank convened banks from all over the world to discuss a package plan to save the German Industrial Bank. On August 6th, American Mortgage Investment Corporation, the largest mortgage institution in the United States, formally filed for bankruptcy protection with the court, becoming another large mortgage institution in the United States after New Century Finance Corporation. On August 8, 2007, Bear Stearns, the fifth largest investment bank in the United States, announced the closure of its two funds, also because of the subprime mortgage crisis. On August 9, 2007, BNP Paribas, the largest bank in France, announced the freezing of its three funds, which also suffered huge losses because of their investment in American subprime bonds. This move led to a sharp drop in European stock markets. On August 13, 2007, Mizuho Group, the parent company of Mizuho Bank, Japan's second largest bank, announced that the US subprime mortgage-related losses were 600 million yen. Japanese and Korean banks suffered losses due to the US subprime mortgage crisis. According to the estimation of UBS Securities Japan, the nine major banks in Japan hold more than one trillion yen of US subprime mortgage-backed securities. In addition, five Korean banks, including Woori, invested 565 million US dollars in CDO. Investors are worried that the subprime mortgage problem in the United States will have a strong impact on the global financial market. However, Japanese analysts are convinced that most of collateralized debt obligation invested by Japanese banks have the highest credit rating, and the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis is limited. Later, Citigroup also announced that in July 2007, the losses caused by subprime loans reached $700 million, but for a financial group with an annual profit of $20 billion, this is only a small amount. However, the current share price of Citigroup has dropped from a high of $23 to just over $3, which means that the current value of Citigroup is equivalent to that of a regional bank in the United States. According to the latest ranking, Citigroup has fallen to 19, its market value has shrunk by 90%, and its financial situation is not optimistic.

On February 13, 2007, the mortgage risk in the United States began to surface. HSBC Holdings increased the bad debt reserve of the US subprime mortgage business by1800 million USD. Countrywide Financial Corp, the largest subprime mortgage company in the United States, reduced lending, and New Century Financial, the second largest subprime mortgage institution in the United States, issued a profit warning on March 6, 2007. On 5438+03, New Century Finance announced that the US stocks on the verge of bankruptcy plummeted, with the Dow down 2%, S&P down 2.04% and Nasdaq down 2. 15%. After laying off half of its employees on April 4, 2007, New Century Finance filed for bankruptcy protection on April 24, 2007, and the sales of existing homes in the United States decreased by 8.4% in March. On June 22nd, 2007, the US stock market returned to a high level, with the Dow down 1.37%, S&P down 1.29% and Nasdaq down 1.07%. On July 22nd, 2007, S&P reduced the subprime mortgage. Global financial markets fluctuated greatly. On July 9, 2007, the hedge fund of Bear Stearns was on the verge of collapse. On August 1 2007, Macquarie Bank said that its two high-yield fund investors were facing a loss of 25%. On August 3, 2007, Bear Stearns said that the American credit market was in the worst state in 20 years. European and American stock markets plunged across the board. On August 5, 2007, Warren spector, president of Bear Stearns, the fifth largest investment bank in the United States, resigned. On August 6, 2007, the real estate investment trust company, American Mortgage Corporation, filed for bankruptcy protection. On August 9, 2007, BNP Paribas, the largest bank in France, announced its involvement in American subprime mortgage debt. Most of the global stock indexes fell, and the prices of metal crude oil futures and spot gold plunged sharply. On August 10, 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States spread. The European Central Bank intervened on August 6, 2007. Central banks around the world injected more than $326.2 billion in 48 hours to save the market. The Federal Reserve injected 38 billion dollars into banks three times a day to stabilize the stock market. On August 65438+4, 2007, dozens of companies such as Wal-Mart and The Home Depot announced that they had suffered huge losses due to the subprime mortgage crisis. The American stock market quickly fell to its lowest point in months. On August 38+04, the three major central banks of the United States, Europe and Japan injected more than 72 billion dollars to rescue the market, and the Asia-Pacific central bank injected more funds into the banking system or delayed raising interest rates. On August 65, 2007, on April 38+06, the share price of the largest commercial mortgage company in the United States plummeted, facing bankruptcy, and the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States worsened. The Asia-Pacific stock market suffered its biggest decline since 9 1 1. On August 7, 2007, the Federal Reserve lowered the window discount rate by 50 basis points to 5.75%. On August 20th, 2007, the Bank of Japan injected 1 trillion yen into the banking system again. The European Central Bank plans to step up efforts to rescue the market. On August 2, 2007, the Bank of Japan injected 8,000 yen into the banking system again. On August 22nd, 2007, the Federal Reserve injected A $3.57 billion into the financial system, and the European Central Bank added 40 billion euros for refinancing. On August 23, 2007, the Bank of England lent 365.438+04 billion pounds to commercial banks to deal with the crisis, and the Federal Reserve injected 7 billion dollars into the financial system. On August 28th, 2007, the Federal Reserve injected another $9.5 billion into the financial system. On August 29th, 2007, the Federal Reserve injected $5.25 billion into the financial system again, and on August 30th, 2007, the Federal Reserve injected $654.38+000 billion into the financial system again. On August 365.438+0, 2007, Bernanke said that the Federal Reserve would do its utmost to prevent the credit crisis from damaging economic development. Bush promised that the government would adopt a package plan to save the subprime mortgage crisis. On September 65.438+0, 2007, the Bank of England was hit. On September 4, 2007, the Bank for International Settlements and Standard & Poor's disagreed on the severity of the subprime mortgage crisis. On September 6, 2007, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 4.75%. On September 2, 2007, KLOC-0, the bank run of Northern Rock in the UK led to the central bank governor Jin En and Treasury Secretary Darling standing in the defense seat. On September 25, 2007, the IMF pointed out the United States for the second time. The loan storm has a far-reaching impact, but the agency also believes that governments should not over-supervise the two-day meeting of finance ministers held by the European Union on June 8, 2007, mainly discussing the US economic slowdown and the depreciation of the US dollar. On June 65, 2007, the US Treasury Department aimed to solve the subprime mortgage crisis. On June 3, 2007, the US Treasury Department helped major financial institutions to set up a fund (super fund) with a value of 1000 billion US dollars, which was used to buy mortgage-backed securities in trouble. On June 23, 2007, the American Bankruptcy Association announced that the number of consumers filing for bankruptcy in September increased by 23% year-on-year. On June 24th, 2007, nearly 69,000 people were affected by the subprime mortgage crisis. Merrill Lynch, the world's top brokerage firm, announced a loss of $7.9 billion in the third quarter of 2007. The day before, Nomura Securities, Japan's largest brokerage, also announced a loss of $620 million in the quarter. On June 30th, 2007, Swiss bank, the largest asset in Europe, announced that it was losing money due to assets related to subprime mortgage. In the third quarter, the first quarterly loss in the past five years reached 830 million Swiss francs. Nearly two months later in 2007,165438+1October 9, Bank of America, Citibank and Morgan Stanley reached an agreement. Agreed to spend at least $75 billion to help the market out of the subprime mortgage crisis. On October 26th, 2007, Bank of America began to lead Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase to raise $80 billion for the Superfund. On October 28th, 2007/KLOC-0, the indexes of American housing market deteriorated in an all-round way. The National Association of Realtors claims that sales of existing homes fell for the eighth consecutive month in June. The annual rate was 4.97 million, and the housing inventory increased by 1.9% to 4.45 million. In the third quarter, the quarterly rate of S&P/ Shiller national house price index decreased by 65,438+0.7%. On February 4th, 2007, the investment giant Buffett began to buy junk bonds issued by TXU, a Texas utility company, which was the biggest quarterly decline in the history of the index in 2 1 year. On February 6th, 2007, the American Mortgage Bankers Association announced that the foreclosure rate climbed by 0.78% in the third quarter. On February 7, 2007, President Bush decided to freeze some mortgage interest rates for the next five years. On February 2, 2007, the five central banks of the United States, Canada, Europe, Britain and Switzerland announced a joint rescue, including short-term auction and foreign exchange. Citigroup incorporated SIV into domestic assets. On February 7, 2007, the European Central Bank promised to provide funds to financial institutions in the euro zone at a fixed interest rate. On February 8, 2007, the Federal Reserve submitted a package of reform measures to deal with the subprime mortgage crisis. The European Central Bank announced that it would provide an additional two-week loan of about $500 billion to the euro zone banking system. On February 19, the conventional bidding tools of the Federal Reserve injected $20 billion into the market for 28 days. On February 2, 2007, Kloc-0, BlackRock, the super fund manager, announced that there was no need to set up a super fund. On February 24th, 2007, Wall Street investment bank Merrill Lynch announced three sale agreements to alleviate financial difficulties.

Impact on the American economy

The crisis in the US subprime mortgage market showed signs of deterioration, which triggered violent turmoil in the US stock market. Investors are worried that the crisis in the subprime mortgage market will spread to the whole financial market, affecting consumer credit and corporate financing, and thus damaging US economic growth. However, at first, many analysts believed that the subprime mortgage market crisis was expected to be contained in a local scope and was unlikely to pose a major threat to the overall US economy. However, at present, the subprime mortgage crisis has seriously affected the world economy. According to the latest data, the GDP of the United States declined by 0.5% in the second quarter, which has declared that the American economy is in recession, and it is expected that the American economy will continue to slump. First of all, many financial institutions in the United States won the bid in this crisis, and their subprime mortgage problems far exceeded people's expectations. Second, the fundamentals of the American economy are strong, and there is no lack of motivation to continue to grow. This is because the United States is still the strongest in the world in all aspects. For example, the latest world university rankings show that the scientific and technological strength and innovation of the United States are still the first in the world, and no country or organization can shake it for quite some time; And the United States has a strong ability of self-regulation. For example, in the 1970s, the strategic contraction of the United States effectively eased the crisis at that time. However, some critics believe that the economic crisis of the United States in the 1970s was not solved at all, the debt increased year by year, and there was no trade surplus since 1975. Whether it is Keynesian Roosevelt's New Deal or the neo-liberalism replaced in the 1970s, the United States can't fundamentally get rid of the economic crisis without solving the gap between social distribution and total social demand and total social supply.

Impact on the global economy

The bursting of the real estate bubble will continue to hinder the growth of production. The bigger question is, what impact will the factors that affect the double-digit decline in house prices have on the United States, because American consumers borrowed heavily at the peak of the real estate bubble. Optimists get some comfort from the rebound in consumer spending, but this may be a mistake. The double-digit decline in house prices will make more and more mortgage borrowers fall into financial difficulties. Other consumer debts have already gone wrong. For example, the credit card default rate is rising, and lending institutions are likely to face a more difficult situation. As homeowners feel poorer and poorer, consumer spending is bound to be curbed, especially when the stock market continues to fall. Even if the direct financial contagion is controlled, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States may produce psychological contagion, especially the revaluation of housing prices. Although the scale of reckless lending to high-risk borrowers in the United States is larger than that in other parts of the world, house price inflation has been more serious than that in the United States, and countries such as Britain and Spain are more vulnerable to the bursting of the house price bubble. In addition, The Economist also pointed out that the ability of the global economy to resist the weakness of the US economy should not be exaggerated. Although the current account deficit in the United States has been declining, it still accounts for about 6% of GDP. Because Americans consume far more products than they produce, Americans are still one of the biggest sources of demand in other parts of the world, and their sharp decline in demand will inevitably damage the economies of other regions.

The influence of China economy.

First of all, the subprime mortgage crisis mainly affected China's exports. The subprime mortgage crisis has slowed down the growth of American economy and global economy, and its impact on China's economy, especially its exports, cannot be ignored. In 2007, China's monthly export growth rate dropped from 5 1.6% in February 2007 to 2 1.7% in February 2007 due to the weak import demand in the United States and Europe. The US subprime mortgage crisis led to a decline in China's export growth. On the one hand, it will slow down the economic growth of China to a certain extent. At the same time, due to the slow economic growth in China, the social demand for labor force is less than the supply of labor force, which will increase the employment pressure of the whole society. Secondly, China will face the dual pressures of slowing economic growth and severe employment situation. Up to now, China's CPI has been below 4% for two consecutive months, 1.0% and1.2% respectively, while the PPI is 1.3% and1.2%. The economic situation is very severe, and the GDP in the third quarter is very severe. The closure of a large number of small and medium-sized processing enterprises has also aggravated the grim situation of unemployment. At present, the top economic priority of our country is to maintain growth and promote employment. Finally, the subprime mortgage crisis will increase China's exchange rate risk and capital market risk. In response to the negative impact of the subprime mortgage crisis, the United States adopted a loose monetary policy and a weak dollar exchange rate policy. The sharp depreciation of the US dollar has brought huge exchange rate risks to China. At present, China's foreign exchange reserves have been reduced from 1.9 trillion dollars to 1.89 trillion dollars, and the stock loss of 10%-20% is very huge. With the economic slowdown in developed countries, China's economy continues to grow, the dollar continues to depreciate, the expectation of RMB appreciation continues, and international capital flows to China to find a safe haven, which will aggravate the risk of China's capital market.