Compared with the valuations of other blue-chip stocks (mainly banking stocks), the static P/E ratios of Hengrui Pharma and Aier Ophthalmology are close to 70 times and 90 times respectively. Will Dong's reduction be similar to Ma's reduction of Tencent Holdings (00700. HK), will the stock price continue to rise, or will it go down the altar?
Analysts believe that the current trend of pharmaceutical stocks is divided, with high valuation varieties and low valuation varieties. After the introduction of policies such as purchasing with quantity, the prices of some enterprises were under pressure, which led to adjustments in the past year. At present, investors should choose varieties with good growth and low valuation.
Dong Jian reduced his holdings at a high level.
Hengrui Pharma has always been an evergreen tree in the A-share market. Blue chip stocks like Kweichow Moutai (6005 19). SH) and Gree Electric (00065 1. SZ) has brought rich returns to investors for a long time, but the difference is that Hengrui Pharma's P/E ratio has never been lower than 50 times for a long time.
On June 25th, Hengrui Pharma announced that as of June 25th, directors and senior managers Jiang Xinhua, Zhou, Jiang Sumei, Liu Jiang, Yuan Kaihong, Dai Hongbin, Shen Yaping, Sun Xugen and Tao Weikang had reduced their holdings through centralized bidding, accounting for 0.5% of the total share capital. Sun Jieping and Zou Jianjun did not reduce their shares in the company.
The above-mentioned reduction price was between 59 yuan and 68 yuan per share, but by July 2nd, Hengrui Pharma had broken the record high of 70 yuan/share.
As early as March 28th, Hengrui Pharma disclosed the announcement of Dong's reduction plan. As of June 25th, 65,438+03 directors and senior managers, including Jiang Xinhua, have reduced their shares by half of the planned reduction, and this reduction plan has not been completed.
Yu Wenxin, an analyst at Haitong Securities, said that the listing of heavy-duty innovative drugs may lead to an upward turning point in Hengrui Pharma's performance. The expected earnings per share are 20 19 ~ 202 1, 1.58, 1.8 1 yuan respectively. Based on the trend of innovative medicine industry, Hengrui Pharma, as the leader of innovative medicine industry, is at the leading level in variety, quantity and R&D investment. Referring to the valuation of comparable companies, it is reasonable to give a price-earnings ratio of 50 ~ 55 times in 2065438+2009, and the corresponding reasonable value range is 60.50 ~ 66.55 yuan.
Hengrui Pharma's share price has exceeded the reasonable value range given by Yu Wenxin after it broke the record high in 70 yuan on July 2.
In addition, among the pharmaceutical stocks with heavy institutional positions, Meinian Health (002044. SZ) also experienced the reduction of major shareholder Dong He. Shanghai Tianyi Industrial Holding Group Co., Ltd. sold 554 million shares at a price exceeding 14 yuan/share on October 30th, 65438. From 20 18, 1 1 to May 22, 20 19, Dong continuously reduced his holdings and cashed out.
Aier Ophthalmology and Hualan Biology executives "planned to sell" but "didn't sell"
In contrast, Aier Ophthalmology (3000 15. SZ) and Hualan Bio (002007. SZ) has experienced the situation that executives intend to sell but still don't sell.
As the first star stock listed on the Growth Enterprise Market in 2009, Aier Ophthalmology rose nearly 20 times compared with the historical low at the end of 20 12, and its return far exceeded that of other first-batch companies listed on the Growth Enterprise Market. Today, when the science and technology innovation board has been fully opened, how to find the next Aier Ophthalmology has become a hot topic for senior investors every day.
Compared with Hengrui Pharma Dong's decisive cashing, the executives of Aier Ophthalmology claimed to be ready to sell, but they still didn't make a move.
On February 26th, Aier Ophthalmology announced that the company's director and deputy general manager Han Zhong, who holds 3,437,200 shares (accounting for 0. 144% of the total share capital), plans to reduce his holdings by no more than 400,000 shares (accounting for 0.0 17% of the total share capital) within six months after the date of this announcement. However, on June 20, Aier Ophthalmology announced that as of June 19, the reduction plan time was over half, and Han Zhong did not reduce his holdings of Aier Ophthalmology. On July 2nd, Aier Ophthalmology broke through the record high of 32 yuan/share, and the static P/E ratio has approached 90 times.
The situation of Hualan Biology is similar to that of Aier Ophthalmology. On February 8, 20 18, deputy general manager An reduced his holdings by no more than 84,700 shares within 6 months after 15 trading days, accounting for no more than 0.009 1% of the total share capital. However, on July 2 this year, Hualan Bio announced that as of July 1 day, the reduction plan expired and An Wenqi did not reduce his holdings in any way.
Among the pharmaceutical stocks with heavy institutional positions, Changchun Gaoxin has increased its holdings by Dong. Changchun High-tech announced on June 14 that it received notices from some directors, supervisors and senior managers on June 13. Based on the company's good development situation and full confidence in its future development, eight team members, including Chairman Kei Ma, increased their holdings of the company's shares on the same day, ranging from 1600 shares to 3,800 shares, all at prices lower than 300 yuan's/share. On July 2, Changchun Hi-Tech broke through 356 yuan/share.
Fosun Pharma was increased by major shareholders. On the evening of July 2nd, Fosun Pharma announced that from July 3rd, 20 18 to July 2nd, 20 19 (including that day), Fosun Hi-Tech increased its holding of 23,964,300 shares of Fosun Pharma, and the accumulated holding amount was equivalent to RMB 563 million, accounting for about 0.5% of the total share capital as of July 3rd, 20 18. As of July 2, 20 19, Fosun Hi-Tech held 970 million shares of Fosun Pharma, accounting for 37.87% of the total share capital of that day.
Science and technology innovation board may promote the valuation of innovative drug standards.
At present, the trend of pharmaceutical stocks is divided, including Hengrui Pharma and Aier Ophthalmology, which are highly valued, and some stocks with a valuation of only about 20 times. What will happen to pharmaceutical stocks in the future? Analysts believe that the science and technology innovation board may increase the valuation of some innovative drug companies.
Wen Yao, analyst of Wanlian Securities, said that due to the recent overall downturn in the market, the overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector has fallen back to a reasonable range, and the science and technology innovation board has officially landed. Among them, the biomedical sector is a key area, which is expected to promote the valuation of A-share high-quality innovative pharmaceutical targets. The second batch of quantity procurement is likely to start in the second half of the year, but the market has long expected this, and the probability of the industry being affected by unexpected negative events in the second half of the year is low. Innovative drug companies and generic drug companies with cost advantages are expected to gain more market share, and some sub-industries such as innovative drug outsourcing industry chain, chain pharmacies, high-end medical consumption and high-end medical devices will still maintain a high industry prosperity in the future.
Zhao Qiaomin, an analyst at Hang Seng Securities, said that innovative biomedical companies are an important part of the science and technology innovation board. With the official opening of science and technology innovation board, more domestic biomedical companies have great potential with sufficient resources. The future risk factors of pharmaceutical stocks include the uncertainty risk brought by the reform policy of medical and health system, and the frequent medical policies in the near future, which may bring downward pressure on the pharmaceutical sector.