On March 9, 2020, the international crude oil market faced a sudden collective "diving". Brent crude oil futures in the North Sea once fell by 3 1%, and the price of crude oil fell to 32. 14 USD/barrel. The largest decline in US WTI crude oil futures was 33%, and the original oil price fell to $27.59/barrel. However, in the following March 1 1, the U.S. stocks that experienced a sudden plunge rebounded and the crude oil price stabilized. Such a big fluctuation in oil prices stems from a negotiation between oil ditches on March 6.
Due to the influence of novel coronavirus, the global economy shows a downward trend, including the decline in demand for oil extension products caused by national shutdown and consumption factors. In order to ensure the stability of crude oil prices, OPEC+proposed to cut production at the eighth "OPEC+"ministerial meeting on the afternoon of March 6, aiming at reducing the supply of crude oil to ensure the stability of crude oil prices, but Russia rejected this proposal and finally the negotiations broke down. On March 9, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries began to promote the export of crude oil at a large discount, trying to force Russia to accept the production reduction agreement through the price difference of oil exploitation costs, which led to the collective diving of stocks in the international crude oil market. This is the first time that the price of crude oil fell below $30/barrel after the US-Saudi oil war in 20 14.
It must be said that this is a war between oil trenches, and the cost of the war is hundreds of billions or even trillions. However, back to our local environment, China is the country with the largest crude oil import in the world. According to the database of China Commercial Industry Research Institute, China imported 505.72 million tons of oil in 20 19, up 9.5% year-on-year; But in fact, China's oil production is not low. According to the Report on the Development of Oil and Gas Industry at Home and Abroad in 20 19 issued by China Petroleum Economic and Technical Research Institute, with 20191million tons, China's crude oil output reversed the downward trend for three consecutive years and increased by 1. 1% year-on-year.
However, due to the high cost caused by the quality of domestic oil products and the difficulty of exploitation, imported crude oil can better meet the domestic market economy, and the huge domestic consumption system has also promoted China to become the largest crude oil importer in the world, which also means that the international oil price turmoil has a huge impact on the domestic market. Although the current international crude oil situation is unstable, suppose Saudi Arabia insists on fighting oil price war, what impact will it have on the automobile industry closely linked with oil derivatives? How many benefits can the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries bring us behind the "hurting people by this"?
Whenever international oil prices fluctuate greatly, domestic consumers are most concerned about the changes in domestic fuel prices. After all, the fuel problem is related to crude oil products and has the most obvious impact on our lives. So, will this oil price fluctuation affect the trend of domestic fuel prices? Obviously yes, but the relative and actual impact is not as great as we thought.
First of all, we should understand that China, as a big importer of crude oil, will be greatly affected if it directly regulates domestic related industries in the face of the fluctuation of crude oil prices, and great instability will cause great fluctuations in the domestic economy. Therefore, China has a corresponding regulation mechanism for the price of crude oil extended raw materials, and the corresponding fuel price is the principle of price adjustment of refined oil.
In the principle of refined oil price adjustment, it is mentioned that when the moving average price of crude oil in the international market changes by more than 4% for 22 consecutive working days, the domestic refined oil price can be adjusted accordingly. First of all, this ensures that domestic oil prices will not be affected by the sharp fluctuation of international oil prices, but at the same time, it maintains the average trend of international crude oil prices, effectively ensuring the stable trend of domestic oil prices, which is conducive to avoiding the sudden surge or plunge of fuel costs. Changes in international crude oil prices will have a certain impact on domestic fuel prices to a certain extent, but the actual impact depends on the duration of the war and the extent to which both sides can suppress crude oil prices.
However, judging from the sharp rebound of US stocks yesterday, there is still great uncertainty about the next crude oil price trend. But if Saudi Arabia continues to implement the price strategy this time, what impact will it have on China's fuel price? This can refer to the 20 14 domestic oil price adjustment list during the Saudi oil war in the United States.
It can be seen that even if the price of crude oil falls again and again, the adjustment range of fuel price will not be too big, so for personal cars, the feeling brought by this change will not be too obvious; But relatively speaking, for all kinds of travel and transportation, this benefit will be more obvious to them. At the same time, the automobile manufacturing industry, which is closely related to crude oil-derived raw materials, will also be affected by this.
There are many derivative materials of petroleum, which can cover all aspects of our life. For example, the core material of the medical mask that was heated in this COVID-19 epidemic-meltblown cloth is the product of petroleum-derived materials. There are also plastics we can usually see. The nylon and acrylic clothes we wear, the asphalt on the road, the gas we burn at home, and even the chewing gum we chew come from petroleum-derived petroleum fuels, petroleum solvents, chemical raw materials, lubricants, paraffin, petroleum asphalt, petroleum coke and other raw materials. It can be said that oil is covering our lives in an all-round way, which also means that oil raw materials also depend on a large number of manufacturing industries.
Except for metal and leather, most parts of a car are derived from petroleum products. For example, the rubber plate used for the front bumper of an automobile is polypropylene, and the raw materials of the vehicle sound insulation material, the interior plastic plate, the artificial leather and other parts are all derivatives of petroleum. With the change of crude oil price, it also means that the manufacturing cost of suppliers' parts is changing.
However, due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, the delayed resumption of work led to the collapse of suppliers' production capacity, and the shortage of spare parts became more and more obvious. Coupled with the depressed market situation last year, in the last year, automobile suppliers were in a very dangerous situation, and many suppliers were on the verge of bankruptcy. However, if the price war of crude oil can continue, it will reduce the manufacturing cost for suppliers and give them a little breathing space to some extent. In addition, if suppliers can withstand the impact of the domestic COVID-19 epidemic, they may have another chance to rebound and rise in the second half of the year.
According to the data of China Automobile Association, the sales revenue of China auto parts industry was 4.28 trillion yuan in 20 19, and it is expected to reach 4.6 1 trillion yuan in 2020, and it will increase year by year. According to incomplete statistics, there are more than 3000 large and small auto parts enterprises 100 in China, and more than 3000 small and medium-sized auto parts manufacturers100. Moreover, according to the 20 19 Global Auto Parts Suppliers 100 Top List, China ranks fourth in the world with seven companies, behind the United States, Japan and Germany. It can be said that in the field of core components, the United States, Japan and Germany basically monopolize the core part of the entire automobile industry chain.
This means that China's spare parts production capacity has a great impact on the global market, and with the impact of the epidemic, the production capacity of domestic spare parts suppliers now has a corresponding impact on overseas countries. According to Anfavea, a Brazilian automobile manufacturer association, due to the lack of spare parts from China, Brazilian automobile manufacturers may have to stop production in April. Thus, China's automobile suppliers are important in the global market, and the loss of China's spare parts supply means that the global automobile market may face the problem of automobile supply interruption, but it also reflects another opportunity for domestic automobile parts suppliers.
At present, the domestic epidemic has been gradually controlled, local enterprises have gradually resumed work, and the manufacturing capacity will gradually recover. In a short time, there may be retaliatory consumption in China, especially in the automobile industry, which will stimulate the market to rebound further. However, based on the market situation last year, this retaliatory consumption behavior will not last long. It can only be said that it won a compensation opportunity for car companies after the epidemic. But when consumption returns to calm, where are the outlets for these car companies and parts suppliers? Overseas markets may be their way out.
From the time point of view, the domestic epidemic situation is stable now, but the foreign epidemic situation is spreading further, which means that foreign production enterprises are likely to enter the production suspension stage as we did before, so it will also form a capacity fault; This fault is likely to be made up by China's manufacturing industry whose production capacity has been restored, which will also bring greater export opportunities for domestic car companies and parts suppliers, and the drop in crude oil prices will also bring them more raw material reserves.
As expected, if the price war continues, it will be a matter of time before the fuel price is lowered. Relatively speaking, this is not good news for investors in new energy vehicles. From a macro perspective, the lower oil price means that the travel cost of fuel vehicles will be reduced. Although there are "floor price" restrictions in China, with the narrowing of the travel cost gap, the core advantages of new energy vehicles will be further reduced, which may also stimulate investors to panic and sell new energy vehicle stocks, resulting in a decline in the share price of new energy vehicles.
Recently, more and more domestic and foreign car companies are laying out the so-called "trillion" new energy gas field in China, including well-known car companies such as Tesla, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, Toyota and Ford. If investors panic because of the drop in fuel prices in this oil war, it will undoubtedly be a heavy blow to these auto companies. Moreover, this is undoubtedly a fatal blow to the new domestic forces that started with financing.
The most important reason why oil can be called liquid gold is that it has high utilization value, and its derivatives can be connected in series with the lifeline of the global economy, so its price level is also affecting the trend of the global economy. But for a big crude oil importer like us, stable crude oil import is the key, so there is the previous Sino-Russian oil supply agreement and the move of exchanging railway for oil with Iraq. But for the automobile industry, which is closely related to petroleum products, the fluctuation of crude oil price will undoubtedly have a great impact on it, which may bring opportunities or blows.
(Article with map source network, invasion and deletion)
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.