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What aspects should CICC monitor the enterprise crisis?
1.CICC: The market has gradually entered the bottom running-in period, and there are four potential factors in the future: 1) The situation in Russia and Ukraine is clear, and the global inflationary pressure has eased, bringing about the marginal relief of "stagflation"; 2) The policy of "steady growth" continues to exert its strength, especially in areas that are currently receiving more attention, such as real estate. 3) The domestic epidemic situation is further clarified; 4) The margin of Sino-US relations has stabilized, and the issue of China Stock Exchange is relatively clear.

2.CICC:RRR cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which was expected and unexpected. This time, the central bank only lowered RRR by 25 basis points, which is too small. The potential driving factor may be that the overall scale of social financing is not low in March or even the first quarter. The central bank may tend to observe the effect of social financing on entity support first, especially under the repeated disturbance of the epidemic, and it may take longer to confirm the effectiveness of monetary policy.

3. CITIC Securities: The inflection point of the epidemic is approaching, and market repair is imminent. At present, monetary easing policies such as RRR cuts and interest rate cuts are difficult to directly alleviate investors' concerns. The market is still waiting for the inflection point and resumption of production of the epidemic. The mid-term repair of the market may be delayed, but pessimistic expectations have been fully released and the market is on the verge. It is suggested to firmly stabilize the main line of growth and lay out varieties with low valuation and low expectation.

4. China Merchants Securities: 2022Q 1 Macroeconomic data analysis: pay attention to the bottom signal. Pay attention to three changes in the short term, one is the further optimization of epidemic prevention and control guidelines, the other is the recovery of logistics and production in East China, and the third is the process of realizing zero social elimination of epidemic situation in Shanghai. In the medium term, we should wait for a more comprehensive recovery signal, especially the further repair of private enterprises' willingness to operate and invest, residents' consumption and willingness to buy houses.

5. GF Securities: Building a "unified national market" is not a short-term policy. To put it simply, the goal that the policy hopes to achieve is to "break local protection and market segmentation", "break through the key blocking points that restrict the economic cycle" and "promote the smooth flow of commodity resources in a wider range".

6. Huatai Securities: The inflection point of the epidemic, the meeting of the Political Bureau in April, the pace of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve, financial management and foreign investment behavior are the following key points.

Industry viewpoint

1. Industrial Securities: If the epidemic situation improves, which directions will be laid out: (1) Alcohol: The recovery of economic activities is expected to improve the prosperity of the industry; (2) Tourism retail (tax-free): take advantage of the dislocation of epidemic situation to conform to the trend of consumption upgrading; (3) Aviation: after short-term pressure, the profit elasticity is finally released; (4) Scenic spots and hotels: the epidemic prevention and control is normalized, and the marginal recovery of scenic spots and hotels.

2. Open source securities: With the increasing proportion of ToC in the new energy automobile industry, the personal consumption market has been fully stimulated, and the new energy automobile market will maintain a high growth rate in the next few years.

3. Ping An Securities: Real Estate Industry Comments: Fundamental pressure still exists, and policy efforts are expected to continue. Considering that sales are still in the bottoming stage, the financial pressure of housing enterprises is still relatively high, and confidence is insufficient. The short-term downward pressure on the investment side still exists. In the medium term, with the strengthening of policies and the gradual control of the epidemic, with the stabilization of sales, the investment side is expected to gradually pick up, maintaining the performance of low investment before high investment throughout the year.

4. Zhongtai Securities: The interpretation of this round of express delivery market may exceed expectations. At present, the market has not fully priced the repair of express delivery stocks. The core concern lies in the persistence of supervision and the disturbance of the epidemic. Through observation and speculation, we believe that the year-on-year growth rate of off-season profits is likely to remain high and continue to show profit elasticity. 22 years of express delivery market deduction or exceeding expectations.

5. Minsheng Securities: The mRNA industry ushered in a historical opportunity, and domestic forces accelerated their rise. According to BMC statistics, the global antibody drug market will reach $300 billion in 2025. As a treatment comparable to antibody, considering the breakthrough of treatment methods, the help of COVID-19 epidemic and the acceleration of technological change, we predict that the market scale of mRNA vaccines and drugs will reach more than one trillion in the future.

6. Dongguan Securities: At present, the domestic epidemic situation is still grim, and travel demand may be under pressure in the short term. However, the recent breakthrough in the research and development of specific drugs made in COVID-19 has boosted the confidence of epidemic control. Judging from the recovery of tourism economy in major countries around the world, the certainty of epidemic control is high.

Company point of view

1. CITIC Securities: BYD (002594. SZ) It is expected that the performance of Q 1 will exceed expectations, and the automobile business will improve quarter by quarter. In the first quarter of 2022, the company sold 286,000 new energy passenger cars, accounting for 26.7% of the domestic new energy passenger car market share, ranking first for four consecutive quarters. Under the pressure of Q 1 cost, it is judged that the net profit of bicycles in the company's automobile business can still reach about 1000 yuan.

2. CITIC Securities: cement business of Evergreen (000789). SZ) grew steadily, and the profit of concrete business improved. The annual output of 3 million tons and 2 million tons of aggregate project progress reached 89% and 95% respectively. It is expected that all aggregates will be put into production this year, which will further reduce the cost of concrete raw materials, give play to the synergistic advantages of the industrial chain, and provide kinetic energy for the company's benefit growth.

3. TF Securities: Dahua Co., Ltd. (002236) non-public offering plan. SZ) Help the strategic development of intelligent Internet of Things through assessment. Optimistic about the implementation of fixed project funds, and further help the company's smart IOT strategic development; The company and China Mobile have formed a long-term strategic complementarity, which has improved their performance.

4. Southwest Securities: Li Tao Bread (603866. SH) Bread consumption improved and profitability continued to be under pressure. The investment of corporate customers continues to increase, and the quality of single stores continues to improve; Mature markets such as Northeast China and North China have accelerated the refinement and sinking of the channel network; The company will further expand the southwest market and Xinjiang market, and further improve the national layout.

5. Guosen Securities: Poly Development (600048. SH) Fine management and steady development. The company seeks refined development. As the leader of central enterprises with stable operation and excellent credit, it is expected to benefit from the new pattern of the industry and further enhance the sales scale and market share. At the end of 20021,the company's contractual liabilities were 41600 million yuan, which can well support future income growth.

6. Everbright Securities: Beimo Hi-Tech (002985. SZ) Breakthrough in traditional business and rapid growth in new business. The company is a leading enterprise in the field of braking in China and a national high-tech enterprise in the field of military high-end equipment manufacturing. The testing and testing business and civil aviation business expanded in recent years have good development prospects.

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Disclaimer: The above articles are written according to relevant information, and strive to be objective in content and fair in viewpoint, but they do not guarantee accuracy and completeness and do not constitute investment advice. Research value is not responsible for any action taken as a result of using the above articles.

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