In the early 1970s, oil-producing countries in the Middle East signed an agreement with western oil companies to raise the tax rate of oil income, ending the privilege of independent pricing of western oil monopoly capital, and the price of crude oil increased from about $2 to about $3 per barrel.
1When the fourth Middle East war broke out in June, 1973, the oil-producing countries in the Middle East took measures such as reducing production, imposing an oil embargo on the United States and raising prices, which caused the oil price to soar from about $3 per barrel to about 1 1 USD in less than three months, thus triggering the first oil crisis. This crisis led to the worst economic recession in the world after the war. From 65438 to 0974, some developed countries, led by the United States, set up international energy agencies to coordinate oil import policies and establish strategic oil reserve systems.
At the end of 1978, the political situation in Iran changed dramatically, and the daily oil output dropped sharply from 5.8 million barrels to below/kloc-0.0 million barrels, breaking the fragile balance between supply and demand in the market. Coupled with the competition of western oil companies snapping up oil in the spot market, the oil price soared from 13 to 34 dollars per barrel. From 65438 to 0980, a war broke out between Iraq and Iran, and the oil price rose to $38 per barrel, which gave birth to the second oil crisis and the western countries fell into recession again.
High oil prices urge oil consuming countries to diversify energy sources, improve energy utilization efficiency and establish strategic oil reserves. Stimulated by high prices, oil production in other parts of the world is also growing at a high speed. All these make the international oil market begin to supply more than demand. From 65438 to 0982, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) began to implement the production quota system, striving to "limit production and protect prices". However, this practice led to a price war among members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries for market share, and the oil price of 1986 once fell to $6 or $7 per barrel in the second quarter.
1In August 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait, and the United States led a multinational force to launch the Gulf War, during which the international oil price rose to 40 dollars per barrel. But at 199 1, oil prices began to plummet again. Compared with the previous two oil crises, the impact of soaring oil prices on the world economy is much smaller.
197 When the Asian financial crisis broke out, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decided to increase production because of its misjudgment of the situation, which led to a sharp drop in oil prices. 1At the beginning of 1998, the oil price of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries fell below $ 12 per barrel, and at the end of that year, the international oil price fell below $ 10 per barrel again.
1In March 1999, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries reached a new agreement to reduce production and protect prices, and international oil prices began to pick up. In March 2000, the price of oil rose to $34 per barrel. When the Iraq war broke out in 2003, geographical factors once again dominated the energy market, and oil prices rose further. After 2004, affected by strong demand, active speculation, dollar depreciation and geopolitical turmoil, oil prices rose sharply. On June 2, 2008, the oil price climbed to a high of $0/00 per barrel. Airlines have not been affected.
Shanghai securities news learned from the aviation industry that the domestic jet fuel sales price was just announced in the first quarter, and it was 65438+ 10/in June, and has not been adjusted since it was raised in June last year. Analysts pointed out that this at least means that domestic airlines don't have to worry about high international oil prices before March, but if international oil prices continue to rise, Cao may raise the sales price of domestic jet fuel in the next quarter.
At present, the price of jet fuel in China is mainly composed of three parts, namely, the ex-factory price of jet fuel, the price difference between purchase and sale, and the price difference between comprehensive procurement costs increased since July 2006. Since last year, the price of jet fuel has been adjusted every quarter according to the adjustment of the difference in comprehensive procurement cost, and the adjustment is based on the changes in the international jet fuel market in the last quarter. On the evening of June 365438+ 10 last year, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that the ex-factory price of jet fuel would be raised by 500 yuan per ton, which also brought about an increase in the sales price, which was the last change in the domestic jet fuel price so far. According to shanghai securities news, the price of jet fuel announced by CAO in June 5438+ 10/has not been adjusted.
Guoxin Securities analyst said in an interview with shanghai securities news yesterday that most domestic airlines still purchase jet fuel from CAO, so the change of international oil price will not have much direct impact on airline jet fuel costs. At present, the domestic jet fuel price can be maintained until the end of March, which means that most of the jet fuel costs of domestic airlines will remain unchanged in the short term, except that international routes need overseas refueling. However, she also pointed out that if the international oil price continues to rise, Cao may raise the domestic jet fuel sales price in early April.
According to the data of the Civil Aviation Administration, the fuel cost of domestic airlines accounted for 44% of the total cost in September last year. Ma Xiaoli, an analyst at CITIC Securities, said that according to his calculation of the overall situation in 2006, for every increase in oil price of 100 yuan, China Eastern Airlines will reduce its net profit by 220 million yuan, China Southern Airlines by 250 million yuan and Air China by1800,000 yuan. However, Li Shurong pointed out that even if the domestic oil price rises, airlines can offset some costs by raising fuel surcharges. High oil prices push up coal prices.
This year, the price negotiation of the Coal Dragon Fair went smoothly, and the common "top cow" disappeared in previous years, and the quotations of coal enterprises were basically satisfied. Behind this, there is "credit" for high oil prices.
12 and 2007 18 are the days when the summary meeting of key coal contracts will end. The day before, the key contract coal was basically signed in 2008, and the price of main coal rose by 30 per ton to 40 yuan, with an increase of about 10%. In 2006, the coal price was officially liberalized, but in 2006 and 2007, the original "planned coal" price only rose by about 20 yuan per ton, and the negotiations were very difficult. 2008 was the most smooth year for coal enterprises to negotiate.
Liang Dunshi, deputy secretary-general of China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, believes that in addition to tight supply, high international oil prices have also pushed up coal prices. Internationally, according to the same calorific value, the relationship between coal price and crude oil price is 1: 6. In the second half of 2007, the international crude oil price rose from 70 dollars per barrel to more than 90 dollars. As an alternative energy source, the economy of using coal-fired power is gradually emerging, thus stimulating the growth of coal demand and raising coal prices.
In addition, the high price of crude oil has also spawned a boom in renewable energy including hydropower, nuclear energy, solar energy and wind energy. According to the relevant plan, China will strive to make the proportion of renewable energy consumption in the total energy consumption reach about 65,438+00% by 2065,438+00, and reach about 65,438+05% by 2020. The petrochemical industry has different temperatures.
As the two largest oil companies in China, changes in international oil prices will have a direct impact on PetroChina and Sinopec. "Because the two major groups have always been the government's policy tools to stabilize domestic oil prices, the pressure they face has also increased significantly after the surge in international oil prices." He Wei, a petrochemical analyst at Guodu Securities, told this reporter. He said that the impact of high oil prices on the two companies is different. For PetroChina, because the upstream business is more prominent, the benefits will be more significant; But for Sinopec, due to its huge refining business, high oil prices will aggravate its refining losses.
Because oil is the raw material of most chemical products, rising oil prices will definitely bring higher costs to the chemical industry. Guo-hong Li, an analyst with Galaxy Securities, said that the prices of different products in the chemical industry are transmitted to the downstream at different speeds and ranges. Organic chemical raw materials, chemical fertilizers, chemical fibers, and plastic raw materials are transmitted to the downstream with high speed and large amplitude, and the downstream price tolerance is strong, while the prices of finished plastic products, rubber products, pesticides, etc. are transmitted to the downstream with low speed and small amplitude, and the downstream price tolerance is weak.
"Therefore, the rise in oil prices is beneficial to enterprises such as organic chemical raw materials, chemical fibers and plastic raw materials, and unfavorable to enterprises such as plastic finished products, rubber products and pesticides. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the specific situation. Fine and daily chemicals are located at the end of the petrochemical industry chain, and the change in oil prices is beyond its power. " Guo-hong Li said.
He Wei pointed out that for fertilizer products such as potash fertilizer, a major impact of rising international oil prices is the increase in shipping costs. In addition, there is a linkage between oil price and natural gas price, which also causes the cost of urea and other products to rise.
However, not all industries are pessimistic about the oil price breakthrough 100. As a substitute for oil, alternative energy will open up a broad market space after high oil prices. He Wei said that alternative energy sources such as coal chemical industry will gain great development opportunities.
"Not only will it replace the energy itself, but some related equipment manufacturers will also be stimulated by the soaring international oil prices." He Wei said.
Yesterday, Goldwind Technology, a leading domestic wind power enterprise, closed at 144.438+0 yuan. In the US market, the oil price hit $65,438+000, which greatly stimulated the performance of new energy stocks in China. Among them, Jieni New Energy ended its adjustment in the past three trading days, rising sharply by 10% to $35.99; Jingao solar energy rose by 7.53%, approaching a historical high; CLP Photovoltaic rose 7.2% to the second highest listed price of 65,438 yuan+07.71; Solar energy in Canada has also increased by 1.85%.