The margin of stock index futures has increased, the handling fee has risen, and the tragic self-harm of stock index futures is shocking. What should I do? Now the management is closing the capital allocation, and the domestic stock index futures have existed in name only! Retail investors are blocked from Gucci futures!
On September 2, an announcement was issued, announcing the introduction of four more measures to curb excessive speculation in stock index futures, including abnormal trading behavior of a single product and opening more than 10 lots in a single day, which constitutes "a large opening in one day"; The margin standard for non-hedging positions is raised to 40%, and the margin standard for hedging positions is raised to 20%; The daily liquidation fee is increased to 23/10000 of the liquidation amount; Strengthen the management of long-term untrammelled accounts in the stock index futures market.
To what extent is this shocking?
Although it has been done twice before, the news released on the eve of the Victory Day holiday still shocked the whole market. Market participants have said that "stock index futures have no trading value" and "the function of stock index futures has basically disappeared", and many articles have reviewed the topic of "commemorating stock index futures". Professionals generally believe that it is the recent constant bombardment of the futures index by experts, scholars and investors that has forced the regulatory authorities to have "self-harm" behavior. So how serious and shocking are these measures? Fund Jun makes a simple analysis here:
First of all, the restriction of "10 lot" is illegal after opening 10 lot, no matter how many orders you open every day or empty orders. When the first shot was fired on August 25, the number was "600 hands"; When the second shot was made on August 28, the number was "100 lots", which shows that the strength is unimaginable. It is also common for a stockholder to buy 10 lots of stocks every day, not to mention the futures market. This move makes programmatic and high-frequency trading basically bid farewell to stock index futures. For a slightly larger institution, except for hedging, the limit of the number of lots of 10 makes its trading in the futures index basically meaningless.
Secondly, 40% margin is extremely rare in the history of world futures. According to the closing price of 2965 points and 40% margin of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures, the primary margin is about 360,000, and the normal period is 10%. In the past, you could make 4 lots of money, but now you can only make 1 lot, and the cost of capital has increased fourfold. Those investors who have just reached the threshold of 500,000 accounts can only do 1 hand now. In addition, the hedging margin is increased to 20%, and the institutional hedging cost is also greatly increased.
3. Handling fee of 23/10000 for ordinary warehouse on that day. "Peace today" is commonly known as "T+0". It is roughly estimated that the handling fee of "T+0" is more than 2000 yuan! Even skilled investors are afraid of this frightening fee. The handling fee is 0.23 ‰ before August 26th and 1. 15 after August 26th. You can understand the intensity of 23 ‰. One point of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures is 300, and investors must obtain the rights of eight index points before "T+0" can make money. Therefore, a sharp intraday decline is almost inevitable.
Fourth, if someone wants to avoid it by opening more accounts, then "strengthening the management of long-term untrammelled accounts in the stock index futures market" will also plug this loophole.
To sum up, I think readers have seen that even if you are only a qualified investor, you already feel that the futures index is "no good". The futures index after the market opens next Monday should no longer have to worry about "curbing speculation". In this sense, China's stock index futures, which ranked first in the world this year, have actually been "abolished". The next biggest possibility is that the futures index will gradually become a small variety with only sporadic transactions.
From a rational point of view, no exchange in the world can do such an incredible act of "self-harm". So, what kind of pressure forced the world's first variety show to come to such a situation?
The tragic "public opinion war" against the futures index
The plunge since June 15 has become a turning point in the fate of the futures index. Date 20 10 16 means that after five years of development, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures have basically achieved a daily turnover of1000-2 million lots and a daily position of about 200,000 lots. The ratio of trading positions used to measure the maturity of futures index is also around 5: 1, which has gradually approached the mature market. However, the occurrence of the stock market crash has attracted overwhelming accusations against the futures index, among which Liu Shuwei, Ye Tan, Yi Xianrong and other non-industry experts have the loudest voices. Of course, many scholars, such as Ba Shusong, fought back, especially Ba Shusong's "Stock Index Futures, We Should Accuse It of Developing It Vigorously", which demonstrated that "the stock index futures market has always maintained its own long-short balance, and has not put pressure on the stock market, but accepted the pressure of stock market selling. According to statistics, from June 20 15 to July 3 1 5, the daily average net selling pressure of stock index futures was about 258,000 lots, and the contract face value was nearly 360 billion yuan, which was equivalent to reducing the selling pressure of 360 billion yuan in the spot market. " However, after the publication of this study, it was still attacked by netizens.
That is, from the end of June, due to the closure of the securities lending channel, a large number of stocks were suspended, and the "discount" of the futures index relative to the spot was significantly increased. The market accused the futures index of promoting the decline. As a result, the news that the futures index "restricted the opening of positions" continued to spread, and the outside world also regarded this as an action by the regulatory authorities to cope with the pressure of public opinion. Then, it is these unconventional measures that have caused some long-term and stable capital outflows of participating futures, and the positions have been greatly reduced, which has led to the deterioration of the proportion of futures trading positions, which provides evidence for the outside world to accuse the futures of "excessive speculation" to some extent. The further introduction of control measures has led to the further disappearance of the liquidity of the futures index and the further increase of the premium of the futures index, which has further aggravated the anger of non-professionals and regarded it as evidence of the "driving down" of the futures index. As a result, the futures market fell into a vicious circle, and finally "abandoned arms" to protect itself in an extremely tragic way.
No matter who is right or wrong in this huge debate, this scene will be recorded in the development history of China's capital market. The same event happened in the world's first and second largest economies, and became a classic of later research.
Let's look at Japan, the second largest economy in that year. After the Japanese stock market plunged in 1990, public opinion condemned stock index futures as the culprit, and some scholars even published books to demonstrate that stock index futures caused the stock market to fall. Under this pressure, Japan has implemented a series of measures to "abolish" stock index futures, such as raising margin, taxing and raising handling fees. However, as the Japanese stock market entered a bear market for more than 20 years, people gradually saw that the bursting of the bubble led to the collapse of the stock market. The dispute over futures index gradually faded after 1995, but the market of Japanese futures index has been occupied by Singapore.
In the United States, after the "August 7th stock market crash" broke out in 1987, generate strongly questioned the stock index futures, so that the US Treasury Secretary Brady issued the Brady report to condemn it, and the US investigation agency entered the futures company in the form of undercover to investigate. With the deepening of the investigation, the congressional testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and the completion of the independent investigation by Morton Miller, the Nobel laureate in economics, American stock index futures have not been suppressed like Japan, but have accelerated the pace of development.
From the historical experience, the development of stock index futures in various countries has experienced great hardships. Whether China's futures market can escape this robbery, like the collapse of Japanese futures market or the rebirth of American futures market, we might as well wait and see.
What will we lose without stock index futures?
Stock index futures is the abbreviation of stock price index futures, which refers to futures with stock price index as the subject matter. For example, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures are futures varieties that are traded with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index as the target. Investors quote different price indexes for trading according to their own expectations of the stock market trend. If they think the index will go up, they will buy stock index futures, otherwise they will sell them. The biggest function of stock index futures is that investors can use it to hedge.
If investors are bullish on Gree Electric (17.85-1.87%, consulting) and want to hold it for a long time and get dividend income, but at the same time they don't want to be forced to stop selling in the market decline, they can make corresponding stock index futures short orders, which is equivalent to buying an "insurance" for their own holdings, which is hedging. For him, the downside risk of the market has been transferred to the futures bulls. Obviously, people who hedge with futures index are actually bulls in nature, and their purpose is not to sell stocks. If institutions use futures index to hedge, it will also help them to hold shares for a long time and reduce their selling pressure in the stock market crash. This is also the theoretical basis of Ba Shusong's research.
Then, after the futures index is essentially "self-mutilation", what may be the consequences?
First of all, institutional investors who have lost their hedging "umbrella" will completely return to retail investors, and their wealth management capabilities will be greatly reduced. In the stock market, just like retail investors, chasing up and killing down, the next market fluctuation may further increase. China's newly developed hedge fund industry will also shrink sharply due to the loss of tools. Many strategies of fund accounts, brokerage asset management and wealth management products may have to be terminated. From then on, the income is definitely a passerby.
A private equity fund in Shanghai made an accurate judgment on the market in the first half of June, greatly reducing its positions, leaving only some promising high-quality stocks to hedge the futures index. Due to its precise operation, the fund escaped the initial plunge in June. However, due to the repeated "limited space" of stock index futures, institutions had to sell a lot of stocks in the plunge, which triggered a sharp withdrawal of the fund's net value, which actually put selling pressure on the market. As far as the whole market is concerned, there is more than one private placement facing such a situation.
Therefore, some insiders lament that without stock index futures, the entire wealth management industry will go back ten years and return to the era of "relying on the sky to eat".
Secondly, a market that has lost the "short selling mechanism" may become more emotional. From the perspective of mature markets, with the short-selling mechanism, market opinions can be better played and prices will become more real faster and more efficiently. This truth may sometimes be at the expense of bursting the bubble one step ahead of time, which may be unacceptable to the high-spirited public. However, after the "mismatch" of the futures index is eliminated, will the market usher in a more magnificent surge and plunge, and will it return to the huge fluctuating market environment from 998 to 6 124 and then back to 1664?
The third point, which is also very realistic, is that the futures index has no national boundaries. With the demise of China's stock index futures, China-related futures indexes in Singapore and the United States may develop rapidly. Singapore A50 stock index futures corresponding to the domestic market has become the primary substitute for domestic stock index futures. Recently, with the "continuous self-harm" of domestic stock index futures, Singapore has continuously promoted stock index futures to attract domestic investment to trade in the sea. Those who should do futures will continue to do futures, but the supervision is more difficult. However, it may be difficult for ordinary citizens to share this "transnational" hedging tool.
Brief introduction of stock index futures
First, the basic concept of stock index futures
Futures, corresponding to spot, is a standardized contract made by the exchange to deliver a certain number of products or financial assets at a specific time and place in the future. Futures include commodity futures and financial futures, and stock index futures is one of the important varieties of financial futures.
Stock index futures is the abbreviation of stock price index futures, which refers to futures with stock price index as the subject matter. The two sides agreed that on a specific date in the future, the underlying index can be bought and sold according to the size of the stock price index determined in advance, and the difference will be settled in cash after the expiration. For example, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures are futures varieties that are traded with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index as the target. Investors quote different price indexes for trading according to their own expectations of the stock market trend. If they think the index will go up, they will buy stock index futures, otherwise they will sell them.
Second, the basic role of stock index futures
Stock index futures mainly play the role of avoiding risks, dispersing risks and transferring risks. This is achieved through hedging. Investors can avoid risks by operating in reverse in the stock market and stock index futures market, which is conducive to helping investors avoid the price risk in the stock spot market.
As far as the whole market is concerned, stock index futures are conducive to resolving the systemic risks in the stock market, that is, when there are systemic risks, the market prices of various stocks will change in the same direction. Obviously, it is impossible to avoid the risk of overall price changes only by diversified investment in the stock market. Stock index futures have a short selling mechanism. Investors who are worried about the stock market decline can reduce the negative impact of collective selling on the stock market by selling stock index futures contracts, and effectively hedge the systemic price risk of the overall stock market decline.
In addition, due to the low transaction cost brought by the margin trading system, stock index futures are widely used by institutional investors as a means to improve the efficiency of fund allocation. Institutions can buy stock index futures with little capital, so as to obtain the average income of stock market rise and improve the overall allocation efficiency of funds.
Third, the basic system of stock index futures
(A) the deposit system
The purchase and sale of futures contracts do not need to pay the full contract value, as long as a certain proportion of the contract value is paid as a performance guarantee. This system ensures the high liquidity of the futures market and can provide higher efficiency in resolving risks. When the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures 20 10 went public on April 7, the margin standard was set at 18%. Considering the actual market demand, after several adjustments, the margin standard was lowered from September 65 and 438+0 in 2065 and 438+04 to 65 and 438+00%, and the minimum margin standard was set at 8%, which was also adopted by the newly listed SSE 50 and CSI 500 stock index futures in April 2065 and 438+05.
(B) the price system
Stock index futures products are subject to the price limit system, and the price limit range of SSE 50, CSI 500 and CSI 300 stock index futures contracts is 10% of the settlement price of each stock index futures on the previous trading day. At present, China's stock spot market has set a daily limit range of 10%, so all stock index futures products have set the same daily limit range of 10% as the spot market.
(3) Position limit system
Position limit refers to the maximum number of unilateral positions held by members or customers on a contract as stipulated by the exchange. By setting up the position limit system, the exchange can disperse the position concentration of a single contract and prevent some customers from manipulating the market price by taking advantage of their positions.
(D) extended family reporting system
According to the situation of several stock index futures products, the bulk declaration system was appropriately adjusted. By adopting different forms of reporting standards such as product classification and multi-product merger, the reporting requirements are refined, the overall positions of investors in all stock index futures products are timely understood, and the risks are pre-researched and pre-judged, so as to effectively prevent the occurrence of systemic risks.
(5) compulsory liquidation system
The compulsory liquidation system is a compulsory liquidation measure taken by the exchange when it detects the risks of members or customers, in order to avoid further expansion of risks caused by market fluctuations, prevent serious default of stock index futures and eliminate unstable factors in the initial stage.
(6) Forced lighting system
Forced lightening is a measure taken to quickly and effectively resolve market risks and prevent a large number of members from defaulting when there are major risks in the market, such as rising and falling in the same direction for two or more consecutive trading days.
Fourth, the development history of stock index futures
Judging from the development of international mature capital markets, stock index futures is one of the shortest and fastest growing varieties of financial futures. 1982 the world's first stock index futures listed in the United States. After more than 30 years of development, stock index futures have become mature financial futures products in the world, with more than 400 stock index futures products in the world, which has become the basic feature of modern capital market structure. All countries regard the development of financial derivatives markets such as financial futures as their national financial strategy, and maintain their own financial security by occupying the "commanding heights" in the financial field.
China listed the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 stock index futures on April 10, and listed the SSE 50 and CSI 500 stock index futures on April 15.
Verb (abbreviation of verb) Why does China need stock index futures?
(a) to strengthen the basic system and infrastructure construction, improve the internal stability mechanism of the stock market, curb unilateral market. In the market lacking hedging tools, investors can only make more profits unilaterally, and the market cannot achieve equilibrium constraints in the equal game between long and short sides. The two-way trading and risk hedging mechanism provided by stock index futures is helpful to stabilize the frequent and large fluctuations of the stock market, which is necessary for market infrastructure and infrastructure construction.
(2) Provide hedging tools to curb the violent fluctuation of wealth and effectively protect the interests of various investors. Stock index futures have the characteristics of good liquidity, convenient trading and low impact cost. In the face of market risks, investors can flexibly use hedging strategies and conduct hedging operations. Introducing stock index futures and providing market hedging tools have become the best institutional measures to protect investors' interests.
(3) Promote long-term capital to enter the market and actively promote the development of institutional investors. With stock index futures as a hedging tool, institutional investors take hedging operations to stabilize their operating performance, thus attracting more long-term funds.
(4) Advocate the concept of rational investment and long-term investment, and cultivate advanced market culture. Hedging through stock index futures will help to change the atmosphere of excessive speculation in the market, change the habit of speculating theme stocks and restructuring stocks, create a risk-averse culture, let investors deeply understand that "there are risks in rising, opportunities in falling", form long-term investment, value investment and rational investment concepts, and cultivate advanced culture in the stock market. The margin of stock index futures has increased, the handling fee has risen, and the tragic self-harm of stock index futures is shocking. What should I do? Now the management is closing the capital allocation, and the domestic stock index futures have existed in name only! Retail investors are blocked from Gucci futures!