Please see Figure 2-5, which sends us a message: in the first two or three weeks of voting for the Olympic bid, a large number of chips in the North Fifth Ring Stock have been transferred at a high price. According to the chip distribution map of July 13, nearly 70% of the chips were thrown at a high price. In the compass software, the high density of CYQ is displayed in red, which is a warning color, indicating that a large number of low chips are transferred to high positions, reminding investors to analyze the nature of this transfer. Contrary to the low concentration of chips, the high concentration of chips is likely to be a sign of the main shipment. These high chips appear in the form of low chips moving upwards, indicating that a large number of profit-taking behaviors have taken place or are taking place in the market.
Figure 2-5: North Fifth Ring Road on the day of Beijing's Olympic bid.
Let's look at Figure 2-6 again. This is the chip status of the North Fifth Ring Road a month ago. In this picture, we can clearly see that in this large-scale upward transfer, the holders of these low-level chips earned at least 40% on average. The next question is: Who threw these chips into the cloud?
Figure 2-6: North Fifth Ring Road one month before Beijing's Olympic bid.
In order to explain this problem, it is absolutely necessary to review the market situation at that time. The market paid attention to this stock probably from June 19. From that day on, this stock rose strongly and its trading volume expanded rapidly, which became a hot spot in the stock market for a time. In the high sideways after June 25th, the stock has been in an active trading state. The concept of bidding for the Olympic Games has undoubtedly created a huge advertising effect for this stock and attracted the close attention of investors from all walks of life. Of course, some people buy when they see it, just like a product in a department store is surrounded by a large number of customers, and someone will always pay the bill. Moreover, there must be a considerable number of small and medium-sized investors among the high-ranking buyers, but it must be the banker who pushes up the stock price. Otherwise, this stock will not suddenly rise before bidding for the Olympic Games. Because retail investors don't have such high confidence in Beijing's bid for the Olympic Games, people don't know how big the threat of Paris and Toronto is to Beijing, and they are not sure how the International Olympic Committee evaluates Beijing. In fact, anything can happen before the July 13 vote. It takes determination and a little courage to gamble on this stock. Because he clearly sent a signal to the market: the possibility of successful Olympic bid is very high. This signal infected all stock reviews and investors. But this move is very risky. If the Olympic bid is unsuccessful, the main cost will be too great, and it may even be lost. However, China won the right to host the 2008 Olympic Games. With the cheers of "Beijing won", the main force of the North Fifth Ring Road was greatly relieved, because all his unsold chips were also dropped.
Perhaps investors will ask: since the Olympic bid has won, why don't the main players take this opportunity to speculate? The answer lies in the distribution of chips. In July 13, the chips were high and dense, showing the obvious shipping behavior of the main force. It is understandable for the main force to do so, because he can't bear the consequences of losing the whole game in case of failure in bidding for the Olympic Games, so he must make a profit regardless of whether the bid for the Olympic Games is successful or not-this is called controlling investment risk. Of course, Beijing won, but the main force has no chance to get back the chips thrown out, because everyone wants to grab this hot cake at this time. Therefore, we have reason to believe that the delivery before the Olympic bid is the established plan of the main force. If I were Zhuang, I would do the same.
Figure 2-7: Beijing won the incredible plunge of the North Fifth Ring Road.
In short, CYQ is densely populated, which is a very dangerous technical feature of individual stocks. High-level intensive market refers to a large-scale profit-taking at a high level in a low-level profit-taking disk. The reason why the stock price rises rapidly must be the result of the main force; The reason why the main force is willing to raise these stocks must be that he has a lot of low chips; At this time, the disappearance of these low chips at a high level indicates that the main force is shipping on a large scale. It can be said that in most cases, the high concentration of chips means the departure of the main force in the early stage.
The old dealer is selling shares, which may be taken over by retail investors or new dealers. In any case, there are sellers and buyers, which is an unchanging market law. It is difficult for us to judge who is the buyer. The statistical results show that the late trend of most high-density stocks is a big drop, but there are indeed some stocks that have formed a new round of rise after showing high-density stocks. This may be because Xinzhuang entered the market and made a relay hype. However, considering the safety of investment, we advise investors not to buy high-level and dense stocks, because once they enter the market during the main shipment, the chances of unwinding in the future are often very slim. The North Fifth Ring Road has been repeatedly touted by market hotspots and various stock reviews, and the main force has thrown chips at a high level, which can be said to have found the best shipping opportunity. After Beijing's victory, the main force was able to completely break away from the remaining chips, resulting in an incredible collapse of the North Fifth Ring Road (Figure 2-7). So which can dominate the stock market's ups and downs, fundamentals or bookmakers? Investors should understand.
Chip distribution
Fourth, the low position of the chip is locked.
The stock shown in Figure 2-8 below is yantai wanhua (600309) with a date of 5438+0 on March 22, 2006. Let's look at the chip status in the picture: the chip-intensive part is in the low position, but not the low position of the chip. The low concentration of chips is that the chips of a stock are piled up from top to bottom, and this stock is in the process of rising at this time. Under normal circumstances, the strong rise of stock price will lead to the upward divergence of chips, but yantai wanhua's chips have not been transferred to it, and most of them are still deposited at a low level. This CYQ state is called "low lock" of the chip.
Figure 2-8: yantai wanhua's chips are locked low.
As far as the form of CYQ is concerned, the low-level concentration and low-level locking of chips seem to be similar. The difference is that from the stock price trend of CYQ, the low position of chips shows a sideways trend after the stock price falls deeply, or the low position fluctuates after the stock price falls deeply; When the chips are locked at a low level, the trend of the stock price should be the rise of the stock price, which means that the stock price locked at a low level should generally be in the process of the main pull-up.
To explain this problem, we must explore what causes so many chips to be locked in the low position.
I once made a large-scale survey among small and medium investors in the stock market. I ask you: Do you have to wait until you earn a lot? For example, do you often earn more than 30% before you want to sell stocks? Most small and medium investors replied: "No". I used to be a retail investor in the stock market. When I was trading stocks, I had a feeling that once the profit of a stock exceeded 10%, I was very excited, nervous and even afraid-this 10% was not easy, and we were particularly afraid that the money we got would be taken away by others. For small and medium-sized investors, if the floating profit reaches 10% and they are just restless, once the floating profit reaches 20%, it is almost certain that they will not be able to hold it. On the other hand, yantai wanhua, a stock, gained as much as 30% from a large number of chips, but no one sold it. Who has such a good concentration? There is only one answer: bankers. 30% is a big number for you and me, but it's too little for gaming companies. 30% price space is not necessarily the target position that the main force wants to make a profit. Therefore, the low lock of yantai wanhua's chips shows an important information of this stock-the high position of the dealer.
Figure 2-9: 20065438+0 April 18 yantai wanhua, the most dazzling star in the stock market.
Since it is the high position of the main force, 30% of the upside can't satisfy its appetite. Obviously, if an investor held the stock before it went up, he has now made a floating profit of 30%. Do you want to sell it or not? Of course, it's better not to sell. Because a month later, the stock rose by 50%, as shown in Figure 2-9. Interestingly, this stock has more than doubled so far, and the chips are still locked at a low level. It can be seen that the main position is too big to imagine.
Maybe some readers will ask this question: Can I buy yantai wanhua again in April 18? Since the main player has so many chips, I don't think he will be out in a day or two, so he is not so easy to get stuck in the high position. My opinion is: it's the same this time. Yantai wanhua on March 22nd can be summarized as follows: the main position is high, but the main position doesn't make much money. On April 28th, the share price of 18 has doubled, and the main force is a shoo-in and ready to go. Whether to ship depends on the appetite and ambition of the main force. In the past, the share price of a few stocks doubled, and it can be doubled again, but this is not a common phenomenon. We are not the bosses of traders, so it is difficult to estimate how high the stock price can be. It may be reasonable for the stock price to continue to rise after March 22, but it is not so inevitable whether the stock price can continue to rise after April 18. Stock trading is the last word, and you can't gamble by luck. I don't advocate buying the stock when the main profit is rich, because doing so is equivalent to putting your head under someone else's hay cutter.
I have done a small-scale investment survey among investors around me and found that quite a few friends have bought this stock. After all, we are a close research group, and the stock picking ideas are very close. But it is a pity that everyone's money earned on this stock is far less than the increase of the stock, and they lost their "dark horse" when the profit was around 10%.
Chip distribution
V. Bimodal morphology of the chip
There is a chip shape, which is very tasty, and that is the bimodal chip shape as shown in Figure 2- 10.
Figure 2-10: April, 1999 16 Oriental Pearl 65438+CYQ Shuangfeng Canyon.
Figure 2- 10 shows the Oriental Pearl (600832), and the last trading day is1April 999 16. On this day, the CYQ of the Oriental Pearl presents two dense peaks, which we call double peaks. The upper peak is called the "peak", the lower peak is called the "low peak", and the valley between the two peaks is called the "Twin Peaks Canyon".
The two adjacent dense peaks of the Oriental Pearl did not form at the same time. It peaked as early as the beginning of 1998 165438+ 10, and then the stock price fell for several months. 1999 oscillated at a low level after February, forming a low peak. On April 1999 and 16, the stock price went to a very special position from bottom to top, that is, the canyon area with double peaks of CYQ. As shown in the figure, at this time, all chips of the low peak have made profits, while the historical lock of the high peak is about 10%. In this position, the stock price will be subject to huge selling pressure from two directions.
The first is the low-peak profit-taking disk. These chip investors have not held shares for a long time, and they have gained an increase of about 10% in a short time. Their desire for profit-taking is understandable; However, the historical lock of the peak is obviously reduced. It is not easy for investors who are deeply trapped to cut meat, but once the stock price rebounds effectively, investors will be reduced from deep set to shallow set, and some investors will choose to leave temporarily. These meat-cutting investors try to copy it back after the stock price falls to reduce the cost of holding shares.
In this way, when the stock price comes to the position of Shuangfeng Canyon from the bottom to the top, it will trigger double selling pressure from the lower profit-taking disk and the upper meat cutting disk in the market. This kind of throwing pressure can also be called "splint throwing pressure". In most cases, this stock will be blocked by this "splint selling pressure" and temporarily stop rising. In this case, we are more concerned about the performance after the stock price is blocked. If the stock price decline is blocked, we think this is a normal phenomenon and need not pay attention; But if under such a strong selling pressure, the share price of this stock does not fall back, but forms a sideways position in the resistance zone, there is a story inside. Because the stock price can stand at this relatively high level, not too low, and it is selling in the face of the market, then there must be a lot of money, which is taking over the plywood selling in Shuangfeng Canyon. Retail investors will always follow suit, and those who are capable and willing to stand up can only be the main force.
Next, look at figure 2- 1 1. In the subsequent market, the Oriental Pearl completed the strong sideways of Shuangfeng Canyon with great strength. At the same time, the original double peaks gradually disappeared, the canyon was filled, the original double peaks became single peaks, and the original valley bottom became new peaks. This process is called "double peaks filling the valley".
Figure 2- 1 1: Shuangfeng Canyon is filled.
The double peaks are also an important feature, and the concept it expresses is the absorption of the main force. Not only that, it is also a way for the main force to raise funds efficiently, because there are many people who want to sell stocks in this Shuangfeng Canyon, and it is relatively easy for the main force to get a lot of chips, especially when the market is also weak. 1999 may 14, you should still remember that the market confidence was lost, the stock index kept falling, and the market was dark before dawn. As you can imagine, at this time, it is impossible for any retail investor to step forward and go to a higher position to take advantage of others' profits, but the main force took advantage of others' danger and stole everyone's chips.
A few days later, the "5. 19" market broke out in China stock market, and the Oriental Pearl became the market leader. Its share price broke through around 15 yuan, and reached 38 yuan on June 9 1999, which took only 18 trading days!
There is another kind of chip bimodal is also worth noting, this kind of chip bimodal is called "big bimodal", as shown in Figure 2- 12:
Figure 2- 12: Big double peaks, with clear positions for main positions and retail positions.
Compared with the small double peaks in Figure 2- 10, their difference lies not only in the width of the double peaks. For the small double peak in Figure 2- 10, the price space of the two peaks together is less than 30%, while the distance between the two peaks in the big double peak in Figure 2- 12 is up to 9 daily limit, which is called "big"; On the other hand, in Figure 2- 10, the formation order of the peak and the low peak of the big bimodal is different from that of the small bimodal. In the Oriental Pearl of Figure 2- 10, a peak was formed before a trough, while the trough of the gas company (0973) of Figure 2- 12 was formed a long time ago, which is a relic left by the main force. After the stock price continued to rise to a certain height, the stock price entered a sideways position, and the peak was formed. The trading day in the figure is 65438+1August 999 16. Prior to this, gas shares also experienced a rapid decline from high to low, when the share price has fallen into the Shuangfeng Canyon. Obviously, there is a problem here.
1August 999 16 gas stocks, their makers are facing the biggest embarrassment in history: the average cost of buying by the makers in the early stage is about 7.50 yuan, which is the peak position of the low peak. Then the main force raised the stock price by 1.3 times. The main force thought that they already had the shipping space, so they shipped to a certain extent, forming the peak of the big twin peaks we saw. But then there was a dramatic turning point: the market did not "cooperate" with the departure of the main force, but showed the characteristics of a bear market, which led to the rapid diving of gas stocks and fell to the bottom of the Big Twin Peaks Canyon.
At least half of the chips are still stuck in the low-priced area. Because these chips are the main force, they didn't find the shipping opportunity and smashed it in their hands, so the downward trend of the stock price at this time can easily fall through this low peak. Of course, if this is the case, the main force will face quilt cover. Obviously, this is extremely unfavorable to the main force, so the main force of the unit organized an effective support in its forward position.
Fig. 2- 13: Main support plate of Big Shuangfeng Gorge.
From this, we can understand the effect of the Twin Peaks Canyon on the stock price, which always seems to be opposite to the "present continuous tense" of the current stock price. When the stock price rises, Shuangfeng Canyon is the resistance zone; When the stock price fell, the canyon showed a supporting role. Especially in the great Twin Peaks Canyon. This kind of strong bone located in the Great Twin Peaks Canyon is also called "injured strong bone". The operation of this kind of stock will be discussed in the later chapters of this book, and this way of using the main force to save oneself and profit from it is called attacking the injured stock, and we have given it a common name-"jackal attack".
Six, the color of the chip
In the compass software, CYQ has many different colors, which are used to distinguish different chip states, and also make the chips in the software have certain intelligent components.
CYQ's low density is painted purple, and the chip in low lock state is also painted purple. Because the computer uses a simple judgment condition when judging the low-level density of chips: that is, in compass software, if more than 62% of chips are gathered in 30% of the space below the CYQ price, the computer will automatically paint the chips purple to indicate that this is a low-level dense or low-level locked state.
What is the price space of CYQ? This is a relative concept. Although the trading price of a stock may be very broad in history, not all the trading prices that have happened have chips left on the disk. Some chips sold in the late morning will not be displayed by CYQ and will not be visible on the disk. There is always a price that is the lowest price of the chips we can see, and there is also the highest opening cost of the current chips. The space between these two prices is called "CYQ price space". Only between the lowest price and the highest price can there be chips, and beyond this range, there will be no chips.
Figure 2- 14: Draw the low-order density of CYQ in purple.
We divide the price space of CYQ into 100 shares, of which 30 shares in the low-priced area are called low shares and the other 30 shares in the high-priced area are called high shares, so that the computer has a relative standard when judging whether the chips are low or high.
Of course, a computer is a machine after all, and its mode is limited by numbers, so it can't change according to changes in market conditions. For example, after the chips of some stocks turn purple, the stock price continues to sideways in the low-level dense area, and finally all the chips in the high-priced area are transferred to the low position. This situation is called "complete low-level density of CYQ", which means that all high-level chips have disappeared, but at this time, the chip color presented by the computer is not purple, because the computer algorithm has been "modeled". After the high chips disappeared, the computer couldn't figure out where the high chips were and where the low chips were, so it refused to judge and express the low chip density. Of course, it is easier for us to improve the computer algorithm, but this is not necessary, because this completely low-level density is visible to the naked eye-the stock price is at a historical low and the chips are highly concentrated.
The other two colors of CYQ are yellow and blue, which are also the colors in its normal state. Among them, blue represents stuck chips and yellow represents profitable chips.
The warning color of CYQ is red. Everyone has seen the red chips, and the computer's judgment standard is: the price space of CYQ is in the high 30% range, and more than 62% chips are gathered. It is called "early warning" because it is often a precursor to the main shipment. This has been discussed before, so I won't go into details here.