The economic impact of the Olympic Games is mainly realized through income and expenditure, input and output. The expenditure of hosting the Olympic Games is the economic investment of the host city.
According to the analysis and calculation of China's endogenous economic growth model, it is concluded that the annual contribution of Beijing Olympic Games to China's GDP growth is 0.3%-0.5%. After 65,438+000 years of development, the modern Olympic movement has developed into the largest peaceful activity in human history. The Olympic Games is global, persistent, comprehensive, super-large, with high cultural connotation, long preparation time, huge investment, large number of participants and high competitive level. It has become a remarkable activity, with huge comprehensive social, economic, political and cultural effects, and has been widely concerned by governments and people, public opinion and business groups all over the world. The influence of the Olympic Games has surpassed any other social and cultural activities today.
The reason why the Olympic Games held after 1984 can win the favor of many countries is that hosting the Olympic Games can earn a lot of money, personnel and materials. But at the same time, the income from hosting the Olympic Games is huge, and the expenses required for hosting the Olympic Games are also huge, ranging from more than one billion dollars to nearly ten billion dollars in the host cities. The development of Olympic economy is a diversified and comprehensive phenomenon, and its international development also highlights its importance and foresight.
From the perspective of traditional Keynesian macroeconomics, the economic impact of the Olympic Games is a kind of demand shocks, that is, the Olympic Games will trigger changes in infrastructure investment, tourism export, TV audio-visual export, commercial trade and other needs, and affect the output, income and employment level of the host place through direct effect and multiplier effect. However, this effect is short-lived, especially during the Olympic Games, forming a "peak effect" of demand.
1. What are the influencing factors of Beijing Olympic Games on the economy of Beijing and China, and how big is the influence?
The economic impact of the Olympic Games is mainly realized through income and expenditure, input and output. The expenditure of hosting the Olympic Games is the economic investment of the host city. The economic impact of the Olympic Games on the host city is closely related to the Olympic investment. Within the marginal cost, the greater the investment, the greater the economic impact.
Through the analysis of the cost-benefit budget system, the conclusion is that if the expenditure does not include infrastructure expenditure, better economic benefits can be obtained, while if the infrastructure expenditure of the host city is included in the expenditure of hosting the Olympic Games, the economic benefits obtained by the Olympic Games will be reduced or even lost, and the economic benefits brought by the Olympic Games will be smaller than people usually expect.
By analyzing the source, proportion and expenditure direction of the Olympic Games, it is concluded that the IOC subsidizes the host city according to a certain proportion, and the organizing committee's own income is very flexible, which can increase the income from the management and efficiency of the organizing committee.
The income sources of hosting the Olympic Games can be divided into the following modes: government investment mode; The mode of relying entirely on marketing income; Based on marketing and supplemented by government investment. According to the expenditure of Los Angeles Olympic Games, Montreal Olympic Games and Barcelona Olympic Games, we can learn from Beijing's practice of increasing revenue and reducing expenditure, expanding its influence and realizing sustainable development in 2008 Olympic Games to avoid more problems.
Exploring the economic impact mechanism of the Olympic Games shows that the Olympic Games first affects the expenditure, image and technology of the host country, and then finally reflects the changes in output, income, employment and economic growth through the interactive mechanism in the economic system. According to the research on the economic impact of 1992 Barcelona Olympic Games, 1996 Atlanta Olympic Games and 2000 Sydney Olympic Games, the operating profit and net economic benefit of the Olympic Games are positive. The absolute value of the economic impact of the Olympic Games is relatively large; The impact of the Olympic Games on the economy is not strong; The industries benefiting from the Olympic Games are relatively concentrated; Olympic Games urges the host city to increase infrastructure investment; There are differences in the economic impact of the Olympic Games.
According to the inbound tourism effect of previous Olympic Games since 1980s, the author shows that the inbound tourism effect of Olympic Games is obvious, but domestic tourism is not outstanding. The main benchmark of Olympic tourism activities is the host city and region, and the regional diffusion effect is not prominent. From the figures, the intensity of the Olympic tourism effect is not as great as people think. But the Olympic Games has a very good effect on enhancing the image of the host city. The prediction of the tourism and economic impact of the Olympic Games should be rational.
It is worth noting that the economic impact of the Olympic Games on the host city includes both positive and negative effects. Among the positive effects, the direct effects include promoting the growth of GDP, employment, the development of related industries and the improvement of investment environment in the host city. Indirect effects include improving human capital and promoting regional economic development. The negative impact refers to the idleness of sports facilities, the loss of life of urban non-beneficiaries, and the increase of social extra expenditure.
Second, the Olympic economy has made the regional economic growth ratio of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei reach 1.23%, creating 265,438+10,000 jobs for China.
The role of the Olympic Games in the regional growth of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei lies in the influence of economic agglomeration effect. Through the analysis, it is concluded that the scale economy produced by Beijing Olympic Games is manifested in the economic agglomeration brought by the expansion of exports to Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and new enterprises and labor will be attracted to this region. This will reduce regional economic costs and improve product competitiveness. This is a dynamic process, because with the enhancement of agglomeration effect, the economic cost of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region turns to rise, which in turn produces the "diffusion effect" of economic activities transferring to other regions.
By analyzing the dynamic regional economic impact of Beijing Olympic Games from this angle, it is concluded that the host city Beijing will have an "overflow" demand effect due to hosting the Olympic Games, and Beijing will spread its economic, tourism and transportation activities to Hebei and Tianjin due to the rising economic and social costs, with an economic growth of 1.23%.
Statistics from the Finance Bureau of New South Wales, Australia show that there is a great demand for labor for hosting the Olympic Games in Sydney in 2000. Combined with the situation in China, most of the current unemployment is structural unemployment rather than cyclical unemployment. According to the supply factors of the Beijing government to the Olympic economic system and the supply elasticity of the Olympic economy to the labor market, the number of jobs will increase even more in the face of the positive short-term demand shocks brought by the Olympic Games. By 2008, the Olympic economy had provided 2,654,380+million jobs for China. The 265.438 million+employment opportunities are as follows: first, the employment brought about by the construction of projects needed for the Olympic Games and the permanent use after the Olympic Games requires specialized personnel to manage and operate; Second, by hosting the Olympic Games, Beijing's urban infrastructure and environment will be greatly improved, which will attract more new investment and tourism for the city and create a large number of employment opportunities; Third, by hosting the Olympic Games, Beijing citizens who participate in the Olympic Games need corresponding education and training, so as to improve human capital, enhance competitiveness and increase employment opportunities.
Beijing Olympic Games will increase China's economy by 0.3%-0.5% and Beijing's economy by 2%.
According to the financial budget of Beijing's 2008 Olympic bid report, BOCOG's budgeted expenditure is $65.438+609 billion, its budgeted income is $65.438+625 billion, and its profit is $65.438+600 million. In the budget of non-BOCOG, non-BOCOG will spend 654.38+0.23.85 on environmental protection, road and railway transportation and airport construction without the Olympic Games. However, the non-OCOG expenditures generated by the Olympic Games include stadiums and the Olympic Village, totaling $65,438 +0.87438+0 billion; The budget expenditure of non-Organizing Committee (city, region or national government and private investment) totals $6,543.8+$04.256 billion. In this way, the total expenditure related to the Olympic Games is 65.438+05.865 billion US dollars, which is about 65.438+0365.438+02 billion RMB.
Recently, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics pointed out that the investment in Beijing Olympic Games alone reached 280 billion yuan, of which 64% was used for infrastructure construction. The Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission predicts that the total demand of Beijing's investment and consumer markets will exceed 3 trillion yuan in the next seven years.
Economic impact (investment, consumption, export, government debt, etc.). ) can create more labor demand and output, thus promoting the increase of domestic employment and national income in quantity (rather than in long-term growth rate).
According to the analysis and calculation of China's endogenous economic growth model, the annual contribution of Beijing Olympic Games to China's GDP growth is 0.3%-0.5%. Due to the lack of empirical test of endogenous economic growth model of large-scale sports events in China, it is still impossible to determine the time limit for Beijing Olympic Games to promote economic growth.
After further analysis and prediction, it is concluded that the contribution rate of Beijing Olympic Games to Beijing's economic growth is 2%, because the Olympic Games will undoubtedly improve Beijing's long-term economic growth capacity because of the improvement of basic resources or production process or the more intensive use of resources, and the degree of this improvement or increase, as well as the timeliness of this improvement or increase, can reach about 20 15.
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