In 2022, the domestic capital market declined, and the valuations of many industries were at historical lows. There is a new atmosphere in the new year, and the transaction officially set sail in 2023. Many institutions predict that the market will reverse with high probability this year. In addition, from the recent 10 year, the first trading day of the new year is also more ups and downs, which is worth looking forward to.

//Holiday Event List//

1. The Monetary Policy Committee of the central bank held a regular meeting in the fourth quarter of 2022, pointing out that it is necessary to make good use of policy-oriented financial tools and focus on supporting and promoting infrastructure construction. Meet the reasonable financing needs of the real estate industry, promote industry restructuring and mergers and acquisitions, improve the assets and liabilities of high-quality head housing enterprises, and support rigid and improved housing demand due to urban policies. Guide the standardized and healthy development of financial business of platform enterprises and improve the normal supervision level of financial activities of platform enterprises. Strengthen macro-control and vigorously boost market confidence.

2. Pan, director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said that in 2023, foreign exchange management policies conducive to the smooth operation of the economy will be actively implemented. Adhere to the problem orientation, implement a higher level of decentralization, strengthen supervision and improve service reform, facilitate the use of foreign exchange for trade and investment, foreign capital market access and national treatment, stabilize expectations, markets and confidence, maximize market vitality and release potential, and promote the stability of foreign trade scale, structural optimization and stable expansion of foreign capital.

3. Zhao Chenxi, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that in 2023, China's economic development has a good foundation and more favorable conditions, and it is confident, qualified and capable of promoting the overall improvement of economic operation, achieving effective improvement in quality and reasonable growth in quantity. Priority should be given to restoring and expanding consumption, and measures should be taken to promote residents' desire, courage and ability to consume.

4. The draft financial stability law is open for comments, and the deadline is 65438+20231October 28th. The draft Financial Stability Law clearly states that the goal of maintaining financial stability is to ensure the continuity of basic functions and services of financial institutions, financial markets and financial infrastructure, continuously improve the ability of the financial system to resist risks and serve the real economy, curb the formation and expansion of financial risks, and guard against systemic financial risks.

5. China Foreign Exchange Trading Center announced to adjust the currency basket weights of CFETS RMB exchange rate index and SDR RMB exchange rate index, and the new index will take effect on June 65438+ 10/day, 2023. In the new CFETS currency basket, the weights of major currencies such as the US dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound have all been lowered, and the weights of most emerging economies have also been raised accordingly. In addition, the central bank and the foreign exchange bureau decided to extend the trading hours of the inter-bank RMB foreign exchange market from 65438+ on October 3, 2023 to 3:00 the next day Beijing time.

6. AARON Li, deputy general manager of Shenzhen Stock Exchange, said that there may be three major trends in the A-share M&A market: in the short term, market trends and investment withdrawal demand will further stimulate M&A power; In the medium and long term, the merger and reorganization of listed companies will continue the role of the main channel; In the future, the M&A market will be more in line with the characteristics of China's capital market and realize the diversified development of localization, internationalization and marketization.

//The first trading day of the new year in recent 10 year//

Wind data shows that A shares performed well on the first trading day after New Year's Day of 10. Among them, Shanghai Composite Index 10 rose 6 times, Shenzhen Component Index was slightly weak, and * * * rose 5 times. From the fluctuation range, except for the first trading day after New Year's Day in 20 16, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes basically fell slightly on the first trading day of the new year, but the increase range was large, especially since 20 17, the stock index rose on the first trading day, and in most cases the increase exceeded 1%.

//Officially set sail in 2023//

On October 2, 65438/kloc-0, CITIC Securities pointed out that 2023 was the "turning point" of A shares, and the strategic allocation period and tactical entry period of 65438+10 were superimposed. After the peak of the national epidemic situation, the key bull window will open, so it is suggested to increase the position, and the allocation will shift from the balanced allocation in 65438+February to the growth style.

First of all, the "peak" of the national epidemic period in June 5438+ 10 may be earlier than expected, and the fundamentals predict that there will be more room for repair after the inflection point. Based on the fundamentals and policy trends, June 5438+ 10 is an important strategic allocation period for A shares in 2023.

Secondly, the market turnover and valuation were obviously low at the end of 2022. The entry of foreign capital this year is expected to break the dilemma of the stock game, and the pricing power of institutions will be significantly enhanced. Combined with market valuation and trading behavior analysis, A shares will enter the key entry point of tactical trading in June 5438+ 10.

Thirdly, the strategic deployment period and the tactical admission period are superimposed, and the observation adaptation period ends after the national epidemic "peaks". June 5438+ 10 will open a key long-term window, and the A-share market will fully recover from the first stage driven by policy expectations to the second stage driven by performance expectations.

CITIC Construction Investment Co., Ltd. and Xia Analysis, at present, the real estate financing policy is gradually liberalized, and the epidemic prevention and control measures are constantly optimized, so it is urgent to boost the domestic demand policy. On the whole, the short-term fundamental pressure still exists, but the long-term improvement is highly certain. At that time, once confidence is restored, residents' balance sheets will be repaired, and excess savings accumulated under the impetus of risk preference will flow to the stock market.

It is expected that in 2023, concerns about funds will gradually ease, and it is expected to turn into an incremental game. At the same time, considering that the valuation level determines the rebound height, the current A shares are in a historically low valuation area and have valuation advantages. Under the dual effects of valuation factors and liquidity factors, the overall performance of A shares in 2023 may be better.

Southern fund: A shares open a new chapter in the turning year. In the latest strategy report for 2023 released by southern fund recently, southern fund strategically views the stock market in 2023 for asset allocation.

First of all, the market: the market valuation is low. The current valuation level of A shares is lower than the historical average, and the investment cost performance is high. From the perspective of industry, a large number of industries are currently at a low level of valuation. Including banks, non-banks, real estate, construction, etc.

Followed by the supply side: the company has strong profitability. This round of profit downward cycle is coming to an end. Southern fund's Macro Strategy Department said that manufacturing industry is the cornerstone of the economy, with A-share manufacturing companies accounting for 66% and market value accounting for 56%. Although the manufacturing industry is in the downward stage, the return on net assets of the industry remains at around 7.6%, which is at a historical high, indicating that the overall texture of the manufacturing industry is stronger than other bottom stages in history.

Third, the demand side: consumption is expected to stabilize and rebound. In 2022, due to the multi-point distribution of domestic epidemics, consumption scenarios were limited. In 2023, the epidemic prevention and control will be more accurate, which will promote the superposition of consumption policies. The trend of consumption recovery is expected to continue to consolidate, laying the foundation for economic recovery.

For the investment strategy in 2023, we should look at more strategies and actively do more. Under the pressure of external demand, steady growth mainly depends on domestic demand, and the domestic demand sector is expected to double-click on valuation and performance, focusing on consumption and real estate chain. Domestic macro-economy will recover significantly, fiscal and monetary policies will remain active, and domestic demand areas such as real estate chain and daily consumption are expected to improve significantly. With the improvement of economic fundamentals, market valuation will rebound from the bottom.