When it comes out, it will always be returned, and high-valued stocks will eventually return to value. Remember that trees will never rush headlong into action, and even the assets of institutions cannot escape the objective laws and reality. Holding a group to keep warm will eventually return to reality. In the 1970s, there was a speculation about the concept of consumption in the United States. The valuation of US stocks has also reached a peak, with Coca-Cola PE46 times, McDonald's 7/KLOC-0 times and Johnson & Johnson Pharmaceutical 57 times, all of which are just hype. After the peak, these stocks began the valuation regression process of 10, and the growth enterprise market was also fired to 20 15. At that time, the valuation of the market dream rate hurt many investors, and now some have withdrawn from the market and some are lying on the ground. Many stocks fell more than 60%.
At present, many PE with high valuation and warm stocks have exceeded 20 15. In recent years, the share price of so-called core assets has risen sharply. Maotai, Haitian and Pien Tze Huang have increased by 460%, 636% and 447% respectively since 2065 and 438+07. Although the performance of these companies is not bad, Maotai has a price-earnings ratio of 49 times, Haitian has a price-earnings ratio of 85 times and Pien Tze Huang has a price-earnings ratio of 86 times. However, the high P/E ratio of these companies is difficult to support the rapid rise of share prices. Last week, after soaring to a new high, these stocks were adjusted again. During the market adjustment on Friday, the liquor, soy sauce and medical sectors were abandoned by funds. These plates have weakened as a whole.
In fact, the rise of these stocks is not because these stocks have very high investment value, but because domestic and foreign institutions continue to increase their positions. Judging from several dramas, many food and beverage sectors in Public Offering of Fund are over-matched several times. At present, many analysts in the market believe that while the main board is boosting food and beverage, medicine and biology, in fact, many institutions are reducing their positions one after another, so that the share prices of Pien Tze Huang, Haitian Ye Wei and other companies have plummeted collectively. Therefore, if we analyze the valuation level, stock price positioning and profit level, these stocks will not perform well in the future. Now food and medicine have reached the ceiling.
It is an indisputable fact that the consumer sector is rich in bull stocks. According to the statistics of Data Treasure, since 2000, food and beverage have increased by 23.43%, and medical and biological courses have increased by 65.438+065.438+042%. The two major industry indexes led the A-share market, which is the only two industries in the whole market with a historical increase of more than 65.438+00 times. Over the past 20 years, Kweichow Moutai has risen by 368 times, while Hengrui Pharma has risen by 1.79 times, ranking first and second among all A-shares. There is no plate that only rises and does not fall. I think the food and medicine sector quickly cooled down to the ceiling in a short time, and it was overvalued in a short time, and the chips for holding the group to keep warm began to loosen. For these stocks, we can only try to see their performance and try not to participate. Again, you can drink, take medicine and play soy sauce, but these stocks are not what you should buy now.
Finally, a friendly reminder that "the stock market is risky, and investment should be learned"
Glad to answer.
1. First of all, it is clear that excessive increase in any sector is a risk, including liquor, food, medicine, securities and technology. This is an undeniable fact, and the risk has increased. In addition, liquor and food stocks have been rising throughout August. With the improvement of the valuation of these two sectors, a decent adjustment is needed.
2. The question at this stage is whether to consider short-term speculation or long-term investment if you want to continue to intervene in liquor or food and pharmaceutical stocks. If you consider short-term speculation, you can wait for the support level to intervene in the short-term game to gain income. If it is a long-term investment, I suggest waiting for the overall adjustment of the plate before intervening. After all, the liquor and food sectors have just begun to adjust, and it is not too late to intervene after the adjustment is sufficient.
3. The pharmaceutical stocks have been seriously divided recently, and the leading pharmaceutical stocks have strong resilience, but there is also the risk of overall adjustment here. Nevertheless, the market for drinking and taking drugs is cyclical. Besides, you can't continue to drink and take medicine at this stage. We must develop scientific and technological innovation, replace it with domestic products, and be autonomous and controllable. In addition, national policies have been supporting the development of science and technology.
4. At this stage, if the theme wants to get involved in liquor, food or medicine, the author suggests that the theme should be opened in batches with low suction and gradually added. After these sectors are completely adjusted and fully adjusted, the theme should also be opened. It is better to wait for the main force to enjoy the feast of income at any time.
The price of liquor, soy sauce, medicine and other stocks that rose too high in the previous period is not worth intervening. Different people have different opinions, and I personally don't agree with them.
Pharmaceutical stocks include medical devices, biological vaccines, genetic testing and other sub-industries. Many companies have significantly adjusted their share prices, and there is a lot of room for adjustment of 20-30%. However, the adjustment range is around 30%, and the increase is still huge, the valuation is still not low, and the profit of institutional shareholding is still rich. If retail investors continue to rebound, it will give institutions a chance to leave on rallies.
In food industries such as soy sauce and condiments, the stock price adjustment has just begun, that is, two trading days. The time and space for adjustment are still insufficient, and there is still room for adjustment in the market outlook. However, it is difficult to judge the way of adjustment according to the unity of institutions. The continuous adjustment of the stock price is too harmful to the net value of the fund, which is not in line with the principle of maximizing the interests of the organization. Therefore, there will be a rebound in the short term, but there is still room for adjustment after the rebound, which is even more unsuitable for rushing to the bottom and preventing institutions from using T+.
At present, the liquor sector is still strong and there is no obvious adjustment. The current valuation of the liquor sector is at a historical high, and there is room for adjustment in the market outlook. However, in the case of institutional shareholding, it is difficult to accurately judge the timing of adjustment. Like soy sauce seasoning, Haitian Ye Wei suddenly began to adjust at a record high level, which surprised investors and caused heavy losses.
Liquor, soy sauce, and pharmaceutical stocks are all held by institutions, and it is easy for institutions to pull up their stock prices without too much turnover. However, the biggest problem of holding shares in the group is that the selling channels will also be crowded, and new institutions will not enter the market at a high level, which will only attract a few retail investors to follow suit. As long as the institution sells shares and the institutional shareholding is loose, the stock price will plummet. With the adjustment of stock price, the market enthusiasm will decrease, the profit realized by institutions will continue to increase, and the time for stock price adjustment will be extended.
Are liquor, soy sauce and pharmaceutical stocks, which had a big increase in the previous period, still worth our intervention now? This needs to be seen from different times. Many retail friends ignore the "timeline" when making investments. For example, short-term tickets are long-term tickets; It was a long-term ticket, but it was made into a short-term ticket. If there is no timely response, it is natural to lose more. Looking at these three sectors now, we also need to distinguish between time and situation.
1. Personally, these three sectors are not a good choice in the short term! Although liquor stocks were affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, they were really hit. After all, people have less dinners, so they naturally drink less wine. However, many liquor companies have adopted the method of "reasonable control of goods" to resolve the industry crisis, and most of them have made good semi-annual reports. However, if we look at the valuation, most of them are not cheap, and they are at a high valuation level in recent years, so we need to be cautious.
Soy sauce stocks and A-share market involve relatively few constituent stocks, involving about 10. A small quantity does not mean that all soy sauce stocks are of good quality. At present, the valuation is not cheap, so we need to be cautious in the short to medium term.
As for pharmaceutical stocks, there are too many subdivisions in this direction, including generic drugs, innovative drugs, vaccines, plasma, anti-cancer and so on. The situation of hundreds of companies is not uniform. It can only be said that what really deserves our attention in the sector are those high-quality companies. High-quality companies have high valuations and need to be cautious in the short and medium term, while some high-quality companies that have been "wrongly killed" by the market are worthy of attention in the short and medium term.
2. Long-term and high-quality stocks in the direction of liquor, soy sauce and medicine deserve our long-term attention. Although the short-term and medium-term valuations are on the high side, in the long term, as long as the company can maintain its performance and keep growing, these three high-quality companies deserve our attention.
Stock investment is like this, rising and falling, rising and falling. However, whether it is up or down, it often deviates from the market valuation system and valuation trend.
What do you mean? For example, consumer stocks such as liquor, soy sauce and medicine were launched on 20 17. First, because these stocks did perform well, and their performance was basically unaffected by the economic cycle, and institutional investors got substantial support in policy at that time, that is, the management opposed speculation, so Baima leading stocks began to rise, gradually forming a situation of institutional investment. Under such circumstances, the valuation of white horse stocks is getting higher and higher, and even some white horse stocks can no longer be regarded as white horses. For example, the P/E ratio of Maotai has reached more than 40 times, and that of Haitian Ye Wei has reached more than 90 times. But the location is too high, and not many people are willing to take over, so it is getting harder and harder to ship. Institutions can only stubbornly continue to hold.
So technically, we have to find an excuse to let these stocks fall first, so that retail investors in the market have a feeling or illusion that these stocks have fallen a lot and can bargain-hunting. As we all know, a new round of decline has begun ... so repeatedly, the main force perfectly transferred the chips to ordinary investors. Therefore, many large shippers will hand over most of their chips in the process of pulling up, which is relatively easy. However, if the goods are shipped in the process of falling, in order to ensure profits, the previous lifting process should be as high as possible.
Back to the beginning, there are many ups and downs, but everyone has their own investment system. If the falling position is not in your expectation and the value of the stock is not in line with your judgment system, then don't touch it, no matter how much they fall.
So in my opinion, these stocks are not suitable for intervention for the time being.
The answer is yes, the liquor, soy sauce and medicine sectors, which have risen too high in the previous period, are not suitable for intervention at present.
The main reason is that the valuation of these sectors is showing a bubble trend. At the same time, it is unrealistic to rely on liquor, soy sauce and medicine for the transformation and upgrading of our entire economy.
Judging from the valuation, the CSI Liquor Index is currently 48.27 times PE and the PE percentile is 99.5 1%.
The representative stocks of soy sauce are Haitian Ye Wei and He Qian Ye Wei. Take Ye Wei, Haiti as an example. At present, the e is 94.5 1 times, and the PE percentile is 99. 19%.
Medicine Let's take the CSI 500 Medical Index as an example. At present, the PE is 46.94 times and the PE percentile is 86.5438+0%.
Obviously, the valuation of these sectors has been bubbled, and it is impossible for this industry to have such a high growth rate. On the other hand, let's understand it from the perspective of common sense.
The only driving force to promote the development of human society is scientific and technological innovation, thus improving the productivity of the whole society. In other words, economic transformation and upgrading must have a major breakthrough in science and technology.
Just like the invention of the steam engine in the first industrial revolution, the rise of the British Empire, and the information technology revolution and internet technology that began in the 1970s.
The most realistic situation is that our chip semiconductor is still stuck in the neck. This embarrassing situation is obviously not solved by taking medicine and drinking.
This weekend, SMIC was also included in the entity list. We won't go into details about this, as everyone knows.
Judging from the recent market performance, Jiangmao fell for three consecutive days, liquor was divided, and medicine was still in a downward channel.
Therefore, it is not suitable to intervene in liquor, soy sauce and medicine at present!
Liquor, soy sauce and pharmaceutical stocks began to rise at the beginning of last year, and only rebounded slightly after the Spring Festival. Up to now, leading companies have basically reached record highs, and their valuations have been very high. It has been adjusted back for a few days now, but it is still not low. Liquor doesn't even have much callback. You can wait if you want to buy it.
These sectors are good sectors, leading companies are worth buying, and the only thing to analyze and choose is the price. No matter how good the company is, the stock price is too high and it is not a good time to buy.
Let's take a brief look at the dynamic P/E ratio of these three plate leaders: Maotai is around 50, Haitian Ye Wei is still close to 90 after a few days of sharp decline, and Hengrui Pharma is 86. So why can soy sauce fall so fast these days? Because it's really high.
Of course, the growth rate of soy sauce is higher than that of liquor, and the imagination of successful research and development of new drugs in the future is very large. It is normal that the price-earnings ratio of these two industries is higher than that of liquor, but it is not twice as high.
But at this stage, it is too expensive as a whole.
In short, these industries are very good and deserve long-term attention. As long as the price falls to a reasonable range, it is still worth starting. As for what price is reasonable, it depends on everyone's judgment on the stock.
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Are liquor, soy sauce and pharmaceutical stocks worth our intervention? Hello everyone! I am brother Cheng Quantification, focusing on quantitative analysis of 16 stock market and deeply studying the logic behind the trend change!
Actually, there is no need to answer this question directly. Some friends have asked similar questions before, asking if soy sauce can still enter? I told him, what is the price-earnings ratio of so-and-so soy sauce now? He said more than 80 times, and I said yes. I asked him, if you had to choose a semiconductor company with a good growth rate this year and a soy sauce company with the same price-earnings ratio of 80 times, who would you choose to vote for? He replied without thinking, it must be a semiconductor. This is the direction that the state guides investment. Didn't the answer come out already? He smiled without a word.
What kind of investment logic thinking do you have?
Why can the valuation of a soy sauce approach a hundredfold? In fact, sometimes the investment logic is relatively simple, but many investors don't understand it and lack independent thinking. They lack forward thinking, mainly because they are trapped in myths created by others.
Now it is widely rumored on the internet that our technology company is worthless, and a soy sauce is worth dozens of companies in an industry. This is really outrageous. To put it bluntly, soy sauce belongs to the food industry. Traditional industries are generally valued at 20 to 30 PE, and now it has reached more than 80 times. At the highest time, it is close to 100 times, even higher than the valuation of technology stocks. I wonder which experts are willing to give such a high estimate. Once the myth of the future is shattered, the quilt cover is estimated to last for a long time. This may be caused by lack of independent thinking.
What is the future investment logic? If liquor and soy sauce are successful investments in the past, it can only show that investors have encountered too many pits in the past. They just want to make sure that what they can usually see is safe enough, but this logic can only represent past success, and it does not mean that they will succeed in the future. Technology can replace the future!
What is the most urgent thing for the country to do now? Technological innovation, technology represents the future. Aren't you in a hurry when you see that our high-tech company has been under pressure from the United States? Science and technology innovation board established, GEM registered. These are all real things for the sake of technology.
Future investments must be invested in these core assets.
Besides, pharmaceutical stocks can actually be optimistic in the future, but it is not suitable if the valuation is too high. We say that the stock price can't go up forever, and it can't go up to the sky. If it is too high, wait for the callback to pay attention.
I wonder if you agree? If you have different opinions, please leave a message to correct them.
Pay attention to quantifying investment, analyze current affairs and finance, focus on mining quantitative strategies in the stock market and educate investors.
Are liquor, soy sauce and pharmaceutical stocks worth our intervention? This question is very interesting. These stocks were all leaders in the early stage, but they have been adjusting recently. At this time, we should not only ask: Is the adjustment in place? Is it time to start?
The performance of these stocks is relatively stable, the economic cycle has little influence on them, the cash flow is healthy, and the profits and revenues are growing steadily, so they are always easy to be embraced by institutions. Since last year, it is easy for funds to raise funds, and the standard of funds is to allocate these stocks. These stocks are welcomed by institutions and become places where institutions gather together, with a particularly high shareholding ratio, even as high as 60%. The shareholding ratio of Maotai stock institutions is as high as 80%, and the number of institutions is as high as 65,438+.
However, these stocks are currently in a state of adjustment. The liquor sector is currently located near the 30-day moving average. I stepped on the 30-day moving average today, but I didn't fall below it. The 60-day moving average is a key line. Maotai has been sideways for 2 months now. If it falls below the 60-day moving average to form an M head, it will not look good.
As for the soy sauce Wang Tianhai, which is also commonly known as "sauce hair", it is also in the callback. It fell for three consecutive days before today, with a cumulative decline of 20%. Although it has increased by 4% today, the graphics are not very nice.
Pharmaceutical stocks represented by Hengrui Pharma and Mindray Medical began to adjust in mid-July, and are still in a sideways state, both on the edge of the 60-day moving average. Since the second quarter, the number of institutions has increased significantly, almost all of which are like this. The reason for this is that many institutions reduced their holdings in the first quarter due to the epidemic. After the second quarter, the epidemic was controlled, the economy picked up, the liquidity of funds was still high, and institutions came in again. They are all gathered in these enterprises.
The current position is more subtle, because these sectors are the leaders of the previous stock market rise, and the current valuation is not low. Maotai's price-earnings ratio is 50 times. If it really rises to 70 times the price-earnings ratio, do you dare to "drink" such Maotai? But if you reduce your holdings of these stocks, what other stocks can you replace?
Many people expect to rise to 4000 points, but who can carry this banner to achieve this goal? Is the original leader still rising? Or does the plate rotate to other plates? The original leadership has been valued so high. Can it really be sustained if it is higher? And if you rotate to other plates, which plate can be strong? Traditional real estate, nonferrous metals and other neglected sectors?
I'm not sure. Now I'm in a dilemma, but I'm not. Let's wait and see. Neither increase nor decrease, neither dirty nor dirty. If you have to choose one direction, reduce it a little. I am also curious about which direction I am going.
Yu Meimei replied: Affected by the epidemic, industries with high certainty are more favored by investors. In the current economic downturn, industries with high certainty are more attractive than industries with high growth. Consumer stocks with high certainty have become the direction of the market now. Although the overall increase of consumer stocks is not particularly high, it is highly certain. Paying more premium for certainty is a hot direction in the market at present.
In terms of valuation, the food and beverage sector hit a record high. Although this does not mean that it will fall immediately, it means that there is little room for potential increase. In the past two years, the main force has favored both big consumption and big technology. Recently, technology has been depressed, but consumption has been leading. The reason is that technology has been deeply affected by the suppression of the United States, and the whole industry is linked together, but consumption is domestic demand and relatively more stable.
If a company can meet the needs of thousands of people, such a company can create value and be worth a lot of money. We are convinced that the share price of such companies is constantly hitting new highs. Both liquor and soy sauce want to get involved. Obviously, now is not a good opportunity. If it is held for a long time, you can continue to take it and break it out. If you want to open a position now, it is recommended to wait until the depth is adjusted before making a decision.
There may be a market for semiconductor stocks in the future, and the valuation of semiconductor stocks is too expensive, but the whole semiconductor industry is not only speculation, but also solid performance support. You can continue to pay attention to semiconductor stocks.
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