20 15, the real estate market in Hangzhou is booming again, and the price increase is obvious. This is based on policy support, the continuous downward trend of mortgage interest rates, and the universal two-child policy. The superposition of these policies has made Hangzhou score high in the land market, which makes people have mixed feelings about the market in 20 16: can such a prosperous market be maintained this year? How long can it last? What are the risks?

Although it has been predicted that the market will rise again this year, at the same time, there are voices that sing down and put forward an alarmist "crash theory". The more uncertain the answer, the more expectations we have for the 20 16 property market. If you have to make some speculation about this year's property market, you may wish to start from the following aspects:

Who has the final say in housing prices this year?

No matter whether you will have a buying and selling relationship with the property market in 20 16, you will pay attention to a core question: how will the house price go this year, will it go up or down, or will it remain unchanged?

65438+ 10/9 The National Bureau of Statistics announced the price trend of new commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in February 20 15, in which the prices of residential and second-hand houses continued the trend of last month and both increased year-on-year. At the same time, most third-tier cities are still in the stage of gradual inventory digestion, so house prices are still falling from the previous month.

Zhang Dawei, research director of Zhongyuan real estate market, analyzed that the phenomenon of housing price differentiation in cities will continue this year due to the different supply and demand conditions in cities.

Just as there will be large-scale differentiation in the whole country, Hangzhou will also show very obvious individual differences. For example, in 20 15, the average contract price of new commercial housing in Hangzhou was 16 182 yuan/square meter, which was 3.8 percentage points higher than 20 15653 yuan/square meter in 2004. Focusing on one plate, the two buildings with the biggest increase in Hangzhou are Greentown, Canal Chen Yuan and Construction Engineering. At the same time, the transaction of these two properties is also hot.

Real estate experts believe that if we do not increase the intensity and scope of policy easing, similar differentiation will tend to be obvious. The volume and price of easy-to-sell items have risen, and the price reduction of slow-moving items may not be able to get the ideal turnover.

Judging from the overall price trend, it is unlikely that there will be a sharp increase this year. At the Central Economic Work Conference that closed on February 2 15, 1 and 20 16, resolving the real estate inventory was listed as one of the five major tasks of China's economic and social development in 20 16, and the central government explicitly encouraged developers to cut prices, with unprecedented efforts.

Of course, whether enterprises, as the main body of the market, will comply with the call of the central authorities will also start from their own considerations. For example, the price reduction of listed companies may lead to a decline in profits, and small developers may face bankruptcy. In addition, the high land price last year also decided that it is difficult to make concessions on the cost of commercial housing this year. Therefore, this year's housing prices will never be unilaterally decided by the government, developers or property buyers.

Real estate returns to the investment era?

Although the skyrocketing housing prices no longer exist, real estate is still considered as a relatively stable investment channel. What's more, since the stock market plunged on June 9, 20 15, the market index has been hovering at 3,000 points. After the short-term "survival" fuse mechanism, many investors became disheartened and turned to real estate again.

A survey report at the end of last year showed that if they had 500,000 yuan in hand, 30% people would prefer to invest in the property market, while only 15% invested in the stock market. 55% said they would not buy either. People who tend to buy a house say, "The house is a value-added product after all, and the stock market is too unstable at present." Just like the Hangzhou market, last year's "Japanese CD" has returned to the market and sold well everywhere.

Then, in the proportion of buyers who buy a house, how many are self-occupied and how many are used for investment? According to the report released by Hangzhou Transparent Selling House Research Institute, small-sized commercial houses below 60 square meters were the main signing force of commercial real estate last year, accounting for 75% of the total signing volume; According to the total price calculation, shops and office buildings below 6,543,800 yuan account for 70% and 78% of the total commercial real estate respectively. It can be seen that low-threshold investment products have been more popular in the market in recent years, meeting the investment needs of investors.

In addition to commercial real estate, the reporter learned from the hot-selling residential projects that as the market continues to heat up, the proportion of Wenzhou and Taizhou buyers returning to Hangzhou is getting higher and higher. Although it is not as good as real estate speculation before 2009, the confidence in home ownership has obviously rebounded.

In the long run, rising house prices is an inevitable event, which is a good time to buy a house. Major policies and the current situation provide a good window for buyers to buy a house. The stock bull market has passed, and the next bull market may have to wait another five years. However, blind real estate speculation will only lead to the shortage of the property market and soaring housing prices. Therefore, investing in real estate still needs to be rational and multi-faceted. In fact, regardless of real estate speculation or stock trading, we must choose our own rigid needs in light of our own conditions.

Can the inventory come down?

Fang, president of Transparent Selling House Research Institute, believes that with the implementation of a series of policies and measures of 20 15, Hangzhou real estate market has effectively boosted market confidence, showing a positive trend of "steady growth", and the inventory cycle of commercial housing has been significantly shortened, with a positive overall trend.

According to the data, by the end of 20 15, there were 97,830 sets of commercial housing in Hangzhou urban area (including Xiaoshan and Yuhang), down 5.5% year-on-year, and 34,364 sets in the main urban area, down 7.1%year-on-year; According to the average number of transactions in the past year, the inventory destocking period of new commercial housing in urban areas is 10.6 months, and that in main urban areas is 9.4 months, which is significantly shorter than that in the same period of 20 14 years. The overall relationship between supply and demand in the market has been greatly improved.

"The number of saleable commercial houses is still running at a high level, but there are problems such as uneven regional distribution and unreasonable inventory structure." He believes that since 20 15, there have been many positive changes in the real estate market in Hangzhou, the demand for self-occupation has been released, the inventory pressure of commercial housing has been alleviated, and the effect of destocking has not come easily. This year, we should analyze and treat the inventory structure more scientifically.

Where is the most effective way to destock? Yu Xiaofen, director of the Real Estate Research Institute of Zhejiang University of Technology, believes that it is necessary to control the source of land and establish an effective supply ratio. First of all, the government should effectively control the sources of land, stop or reduce land supply in places with large stocks, find out the explicit and implicit stocks, and establish an effective land supply matching mechanism. Secondly, the government should reduce the unreasonable taxes and fees of developers and encourage developers to cut prices. At the same time, housing enterprises should make more rational investment decisions, closely follow market changes, study the matching relationship between urban population and real estate, and do not blindly take land.

Yu Xiaofen also pointed out that the excessive amount of public construction in Hang Cheng led to the mismatch between office rent and office sales price and urban development, resulting in large-scale vacancy and waste. "It is suggested that the government can allow some public construction land in some areas to change its use, especially in areas where housing demand is in short supply, and accelerate the destocking of public construction."

Professor Jia Shenghua, director of the Real Estate Research Center of Zhejiang University, pointed out that a good supply-side structural reform will obviously optimize inventory.

"The government should encourage the purchase of houses, whether it is self-occupied consumption or investment purchase. At the same time, speed up infrastructure construction, especially the shortcomings of the transportation system. From the perspective of population agglomeration, it is also possible to attract buyers from all over the country to Hangzhou through the household registration of non-registered population and the reform of residence permit system. " Jia Shenghua believes that if these ideas and suggestions are finally implemented, it is not difficult to reduce inventory.

Will there be more expensive land prices?

Hangzhou land market completely entered the "high fever period" in the second half of 20 15. Binjiang, Wen Hui, Qiaoxi, Shangtang, Olympic Sports Center and other plots have successively refreshed plate prices, and high premium rates have been refreshed repeatedly, and land kings have emerged one after another. Every time it is a high-quality land transfer, it will be fiercely contested by real estate enterprises.

At 20 16, the land became very hot by going up a flight of stairs. 654381October 6, Cinda Real Estate won the unit homestead in Nanxing of Qianjiang New City at a record floor price of 36679 yuan/square meter, which directly burned the newly opened land market to the boiling point.

Then, will there be more expensive land in the next land market? The answer is possible.

According to the newly published 20 15 land reading manual for the fourth phase of the main city, many homesteads have such conditions. For example, the 47.85 mu homestead 1 plot of Nanxing unit is rich in high-priced land. This land is separated from Xindiwang in Hangzhou by a street, and its shape is relatively square.

There are also two homesteads located in Hushu Unit and Cuiyuan Unit, which may create a high premium. The land price of Rongxin Hangzhou Mansion project, which is closest to the two plots, was as high as 25,785 yuan/square meter in June 20 14. Excluding the affordable housing area of 65438+6000 square meters, the actual floor price has exceeded 30,000 yuan/square meter.

In addition, if there are two homesteads listed for sale in the Chaominggenshan unit in the city center, it will definitely lead to competition among housing enterprises. The plot covers an area of 28.2 mu, 2 1.6 mu, located at the southwest corner of Fengqi Road and Huancheng East Road, and is a rare high-quality homestead in the city center.

Will the second-hand housing market go up all the way?

According to the statistics of Transparent Selling House Network, the turnover of second-hand houses in the downtown area of Hangzhou was 4,4891set in 20 15, which was 74.44% higher than that of 25,735 sets in 20 14, and most of the monthly turnover remained above 3,300 sets. It can be said that this total turnover has exceeded the average annual turnover in the past five years, and there is only a gap of 6 102 1 sets from the historical peak in 2009. The level of transaction volume also directly indicates the final recognition degree of buyers and sellers to the whole second-hand housing market.

Then, what will happen to the second-hand housing market in 20 16 years, and will it continue the momentum in 20 15 years? According to the analysis of I love my family market research center, it is unlikely that the transaction volume of second-hand houses will exceed last year, and it is expected to fall back. The reason is that this year's property market policy has made frequent efforts, which not only released a large part of market demand, but also overdrawn the increase in the coming year. For this year's market trend, it depends on the subsequent property market policy. If the policy is strengthened again, the market may be adjusted in stages.

In terms of price, there is a great possibility that the price of second-hand houses will remain stable or rebound slightly this year. On the one hand, with the deepening of urbanization and the continuous improvement of municipal supporting facilities, it will bring a lot of demolition to the market and a certain housing demand to the market. In addition, the previous backlog of housing demand has not been released, which will stimulate housing prices to rise. On the other hand, due to the rising land price since last year, the "land king" has hit record highs, which will inevitably affect the listing price of second-hand houses under the influence of cost factors.

In addition, it is expected that the overall pattern of rigid demand will continue to be maintained this year, but the demand for improved housing will see a new round of growth. The liberalization of the separate second child policy will also become a growth point for stimulating improved demand.

Hope to adopt. Thank you.