Underground use in the mainland is the result, but the gameplay is customer-oriented and has been modified to meet the needs of gamblers with different risk preferences.
The most common way to play is to bet to meet the needs of gamblers who like high risk, high return and simplicity.
The specific gameplay is very simple, that is, you choose one of the numbers from 1 to 49 as the current period, which is generally set at about 40 times.
Suppose 49 people bought 1 to 49 numbers respectively. 65438+ 0 yuan per bet. Take 49 yuan. After that, you must have missed 48 bets. 1 won and lost to 40 yuan. Finally earned 9 yuan.
So in terms of probability, it must be a shoo-in, unless it is set to 1 49, then it is even. But this is not home. Of course he can't set it like this.
So from the gambler's point of view, he won't lose 40 or 49 too much 1. After all, it's a rule to draw some money.
The gambler's question is: was it possible for me to guess what it was before? If you can guess, you can earn 40 times in an instant!
With this strong demand, customers will be able to provide supply-side services, so the market for buying and selling information was born.
Although from the common sense, this market obviously does not have the logic of birth, because, from the supply side, if I can grasp it in advance and make a stable profit of 40 times, I will do it myself first, and it is necessary to sell it?
The brain is a good thing, but it is a pity that gamblers have been blinded by interests and no longer have the ability of common sense judgment.
But in fact, every gambler is a boss. It's not that easy to get him to pay for information.
The key point is: how to convince (gamblers) that what they provide in advance is reliable with the theory of "survivor bias".
The classic case of "survivor bias" is that during World War II, in order to strengthen the protection of fighter planes, the British and American military investigated the distribution of bullet marks on surviving planes after the war and decided to strengthen them in places with many bullet marks. However, Abraham Wald, a statistician, thinks that more attention should be paid to the parts with few bullet marks, because it is difficult for the seriously damaged soldiers in these parts to have a chance to return (instead of survivors), and this part of the data is ignored. As it turns out, Wald was right.
This case may seem a bit brain-burning at first glance, but it's actually very simple. To sum up with an idiom is to "draw inferences from one instance".
For example, there is a joke: please raise your hand when the teacher calls the roll. Of course, the whole class is here, even if only 1 of the 50 students in the class come.
For example, parachutes are definitely zero bad reviews, because people who fall and die can't talk.
Ok, now let's talk about the operation method (to simplify the model for the convenience of expression).
1, choose 4949=204 1 as the target, and divide these people into 49 groups with 49 people in each group;
2. Send "1" to a group of objects and "2" to a second group of objects? And so on, to the forty-ninth group of objects as "49";
3. One of the above 49 groups must have been cheated. Leave the deceived group, remove all others, and give them to 49 people in this group one by one from1–49. In the end, someone must have been cheated. So, at this time, is the success rate of deceiving this "survivor" greatly improved? But this "survivor" didn't know that 2040 people except him had passed away. He regarded two small probability accidents as the inevitability of high probability.
Therefore, in addition to ten bets and nine losses, there are ten bets and nine cheats!
Gamblers, get out of here, the only thing you can win is not to gamble!
final product
Some networks are only used for public welfare communication.
E-mail for collaborative submission: antifraud @126.com.
The above is about the 2022 record factory, which is about sharing. Read the record of historical achievements, I hope this will help everyone!