As one of the earliest known metals, silver plays an important role in the development of global history. In the East, silver became the currency metal of the Han Dynasty as early as 220 BC, and the silver standard was formally implemented in the Ming Dynasty. In the west, traces of the application of silver coins have already appeared in the Bible. Judas betrayed Jesus for 30 Roman silver coins. In the era of modern great navigation, western ocean-going fleets mined silver in South America and then transported it across the Pacific Ocean to Asia in exchange for porcelain, spices and so on.
With the end of the "silver standard" era and the rapid development of science and technology, silver has changed from monetary metal to industrial metal. Silver is one of the cheapest precious metals. Because of its best conductivity, ductility and reflectivity, which is as high as 9 1%, it is widely used in modern industries, including electronic and electrical industries, such as silver alloy electrical contact materials, solar silver paste, catalysts, solders, batteries, photography, environmental protection and purification, medical care and so on. At the same time, jewelry, silverware, silver coins and other applications still occupy an important position in silver manufacturing and consumption. Under the background that the current global financial crisis has not been lifted, investors actively seek hedging tools. Silver and gold have become hot products for investors together. The People's Bank of China issues precious metal commemorative coins every year, and generally there are about 20 kinds of silver coins, including panda coins. In addition, with the promotion of personal precious metal business of banks, paper, gold, paper, silver and other products quickly entered the market and were accepted by consumers, showing a double growth rate.
Figure12000-2011Consumption of Silver Manufacturing in China
Source: Antaike
During the period of 10, the consumption of silver in China has also developed greatly. June 5438+October 2000 10, China People's Bank canceled the policy of "unified purchase and distribution" of silver, and managed the production and operation of silver according to the relevant provisions of general commodities. The silver market was liberalized and the industry developed rapidly. The consumption of silver manufacturing industry increased from 1360 tons in 2000 to 6088 tons in 20 1 year, with an average annual growth rate of 14.6% (Figure1).
1. Silver coin and silver seal
1. 1 history of silver coins and seals
Marx said: "Gold and silver are naturally not money, and money is naturally gold and silver." Historically, silver coins used to be the main currency of the country. Silver became the currency metal of the Han Dynasty as early as 220 BC, and the binary system of silver was formally implemented in the Ming Dynasty.
There are many forms of silver coins in the history of China, including silver ingots, silver bars, silver ingots and silver dollars. Generally, the purity is above 95%, and the official silver is relatively high.
After withdrawing from the historical stage of currency circulation, in recent years, the rising price of silver and good expectations for future prices have made silver coins the focus of investors' attention.
Figure 2 Panda Silver Coin
1.2 Silver coins issued by the People's Bank of China.
After the founding of People's Republic of China (PRC), in order to commemorate or celebrate some important political and social events, the People's Bank of China issued commemorative coins, which are usually made of pure gold, pure silver or their alloys. Since 1979, China has issued the first set of contemporary gold coins-commemorative coins commemorating the 30th anniversary of the founding of People's Republic of China (PRC). By 2005, contemporary gold and silver coins had been issued for 34 years.
Over the past 34 years, 890 kinds of silver coins have been issued, totaling 34.4 million pieces. In terms of denomination, the smallest is 0.5 yuan, the largest is 300 yuan, and others are 200 yuan, 150 yuan, 100 yuan (Figure 3). A silver coin with a denomination of 5 Canadian dollars is a special case of gold and silver coins in China. 1998 to commemorate the 60th anniversary of Bethune's visit to China, the People's Bank of China and the Royal Canadian Mint jointly issued a set of two silver coins. Among them, 10 yuan has the largest denomination, accounting for 52% of the total circulation, followed by 5 yuan, 50 yuan and 300 yuan.
Figure 3 Types of commemorative silver coins issued by the People's Bank of China
Source: China Financial Statistics Yearbook.
20 12 China jewelry yearbook
Figure 4 The weight and quantity of commemorative silver coins issued by the People's Bank of China Source: China Financial Statistics Yearbook.
Due to the strong demand for commemorative coins in the market, the number and weight of commemorative silver coins issued by the central bank increased significantly in 20 10. 26 kinds of 20 10 * * * silver coins were issued, an increase of 4 kinds over the same period of last year; 2.92 million silver coins were issued, up 57.8% year-on-year, of which 6.5438+0.5 million panda silver coins were issued, up 250% year-on-year; The total issued weight reached 103.5 tons, up 38.6% year-on-year (Figure 4).
Modern silver coins are mainly produced by molding. In the mass production of silver coins, ingots or bars are made by continuous casting, and then rolled into plates with the required thickness of silver coins. After intermediate heat treatment to eliminate work hardening, silver coins are stamped to obtain a main blank. Pickling with dilute sulfuric acid solution to remove the copper and oxide film on the surface, and the silver coin blank is pure silver and bright white. Rinse with water, dry, knurl the side in a rolling mill or creping machine, and carve patterns and characters on the front in a printing machine or mint.
Generally, large enterprises should be equipped with 1 1000 tons stamping equipment for mass production.
The central bank mainly entrusts Shenyang Mint, Shanghai Mint and Shenzhen Bao Guo Mint Co., Ltd. to produce commemorative coins by Mint Corporation ... Shenyang Mint mainly completes commemorative coins within the quota. Besides silver, raw materials include gold, copper and steel. Shenzhen Bao Guo Mint Co., Ltd. completed more than tons of commemorative coins within the quota in 20 1 1 year, and completed the annual output of 20 1 1 month 20 12 years ago. It is estimated that the output of 20 12 will continue to increase year-on-year. As the most important commemorative coin launched by the central bank, Panda Coin will adjust its output with the demand.
1.3 Other silver coins and commemorative medals
Except for commemorative coins issued by the central bank, other silver coins and medals are very illiquid. High-end brands and large enterprises, such as products such as Panda Coin or Great Wall Brand, account for a large proportion of added value. The sales of silver coins and commemorative medals issued by other enterprises are also not optimistic, so they mainly focus on scenic spots, conferences or corporate gifts and souvenirs.
The purity of commemorative silver coins and commemorative silver medals is generally low, and the organizers directly customize them to the processing factory.
2. Silver jewelry and products
2. 1 History of silver jewelry and products
Silver ornaments in China have a long history, including ordinary silver ornaments and minority silver ornaments. There are many kinds of ordinary silver ornaments, including rings, earrings, necklaces, hairpins, bracelets and so on. Due to cultural differences, ethnic minorities have developed ornaments with special ethnic characteristics, which are also necessities in life, such as silver collars, silver pieces and big silver headdresses of Miao people.
The history of silver products can be traced back to the Shang Dynasty in Zhixia. According to the unearthed cultural relics in the Spring and Autumn Period and the Warring States Period, we can find that China has a fairly high technical level of making gold-inlaid jade silverware, such as gold-inlaid jade, glass and silver hooks unearthed in Huixian County, Henan Province. There are a lot of gold and silver ornaments on the bronze chariots and horses found in the treasure under the Qin cemetery, including 737 gold ornaments and 983 silver ornaments on the No.2 bronze chariots and horses. Unearthed silverware can be divided into household utensils (utensils, containers, tea sets, vases, incense burners, etc.) and offerings (lamps, stoves, ding, incense tables, candlesticks, precious letters, coffins, bodhisattva statues, etc.). ) and utensils (Bo Meng, Ruyi, Zhang Xi, etc. ).
2.2 Production and processing of silver jewelry and products
Judging from the materials of silver ornaments and products, they mainly include pure silver, 925 silver-copper alloy (pure silver), silver-platinum alloy, silver-zinc (colored silver), silver-sulfur (black silver), silver-gold (gold-plated silverware) and so on. From the perspective of preparation technology, it can be divided into two types, one is casting method, and the other is semi-finished product processing and manufacturing.
Figure Number and growth rate of stalls in the gold, silver and jewelry market above 500 million yuan
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Antaike.
Figure Turnover and growth rate of gold, silver and jewelry market above 600 million yuan
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Antaike.
At present, the processing plants of silver jewelry and products are small, and the processing plants below 1 ton account for more than 80% of the market. Processing is concentrated in Shenzhen, Panyu, Guangdong, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, Yunnan, Hebei, Henan and other places. In particular, Fujian Putian and Shenzhen Shuibei are the production and sales centers of gold and silver jewelry, with more than 3,000 craft manufacturers, among which small and medium-sized enterprises involving silver account for about 1/4 of the total. There are not a few large-scale manufacturers of silver jewelry and gifts all over the country, and the monthly purchase volume is about 10 ton, of which commemorative coins, silver coins, silver medals and products account for about 60% of the company's total product catalogue, and jewelry accounts for 30%.
Figure 7 Retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry in China from 2065438+00 to 20 12.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Antaike.
At present, with the state's investment in the gold and silver market, the output of production enterprises and products has increased significantly in 20 10. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of stalls for commodities above 100 million yuan in the gold, silver, jewelry and other jewelry trading markets increased by 2 1.5% year-on-year to 13205, with the previous value of 15.3%. The annual turnover reached 36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of14.2%; The wholesale market accounts for 87%, and the retail market only accounts for 13%.
20 1 1 year, the retail sales of gold and silver jewelry183.7 billion yuan, up 42. 1% year-on-year. From the change of monthly retail sales, we can find that the jewelry consumption is the most prosperous period in the whole year, that is, from February 201/kloc-0 to February 20 12, and summer is the off-season. 20 12 to 10, retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry 179 1 100 million yuan, up 18.2% year-on-year. It is expected that retail sales will continue to grow, but the year-on-year growth rate will slow down.
2.3 Price of Silver Jewelry and Products
Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the retail price of gold, silver and jewelry in China has basically maintained an upward trend in recent years. The biggest increase was in 2006, when the jewelry retail price index rose by 19.7% and 20 10/0/4.5%.
Fig. 8 Retail price index of gold and silver jewelry in China in 2004-2010.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Antaike.
3. Silver price at home and abroad
At the end of 1979, the price of silver once soared to $50 per ounce. After about four years of decline, it hovered around $5 an ounce for nearly 20 years. Since 2003, a new round of rising prices hit a 30-year high of $49.77 per ounce in April of 20 1 1. The rise of gold price in the same period greatly promoted the trend of silver price; The background of more extensive participation of investors makes the trend of silver price fluctuate more than that of gold price. Subsequently, due to the bursting of the speculative bubble, industrial demand was weak and prices fluctuated and fell. 20 12 is in a weak adjustment stage and entered a new round of rising space at the end of August.
Figure 9 The fixed price trend of LBMA silver from 1978 to 20 10.
Source: LBMA, Antaike
Domestic silver prices generally follow the trend of international silver prices. At the end of April, the spot silver price in Shanghai Huatong platinum and silver trading market exceeded 10,000 yuan for the first time at 20 1 1, and then fell sharply. 20 1 1, the highest price 10405 yuan/kg, the lowest price 5770 yuan/kg, the earthquake amplitude was 80.3%, and the annual average price was 7673 yuan/kg, up 65% year-on-year.
20 1 1, the highest T+D of silver in Shanghai Gold Exchange is 10639 yuan/kg, and the lowest is 5742 yuan/kg, with an amplitude of 85.2%. The annual average price is 7579 yuan/kg, up 69% year-on-year.
Shanghai Futures Exchange has listed silver varieties since May10,2065438. The opening price is 6 190 yuan/kg,1the highest price at the beginning of October is 7438 yuan/kg, the lowest price is 5632 yuan/kg, and the average price is 643 1 yuan/kg.
Figure 10 Domestic Silver Spot, Futures and Deferred Market Prices
Source: Shanghai Huatong, Shangjin Institute, Shangxin Institute and Antaike.
4. The output of silver in China continued to increase, but the growth rate slowed down.
The output of silver in China includes four parts: independent silver minerals, by-product silver such as lead, zinc, copper and gold mines, imported minerals smelting silver (including silver concentrate and basic metal concentrate) and recovered silver.
The output of independent silver mines in China is very small, accounting for less than 5% of the total output in that year. The output of silver mainly comes from the by-products of basic metals such as copper, lead, zinc and gold. According to 20 1 1 the main domestic silver production enterprises, copper, lead and zinc smelting enterprises are the main ones.
According to the statistics of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, from 2000 to 20 1 1 year, the average annual growth rate of silver production in China reached 2 1%. Since 2000, the rapid development of copper, lead and zinc industries in China has actively promoted the growth of silver production. In addition, since 2003, the soaring price of silver has also encouraged the rapid rise of domestic silver recycling industry.
According to the statistics of Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the output of silver in China increased by 6% to 12348 tons in 20 1 year. Judging from the annual output growth rate, the output growth rate is slowing down, which indicates that the domestic output of basic metals and silver has entered a stable stage after rapid growth in the previous period. stage
Figure 1 1 Silver Production in China
Source: China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, Antaike.
5.20 1 1 year, the import and export of silver products in China continued to decline.
Before the opening of the silver market, the state strictly controlled the import and export of silver. The import and export volume of silver does not exceed 100 tons every year, and there is basically no silver export before 1999. After the opening of the silver market, MOFTEC issued the Interim Measures for the Administration of Silver Export No.702 in 10, and implemented the export quota management system for silver export. The varieties subject to quota management include silver powder, unwrought silver and silver semi-finished products. Since then, the qualification standards of silver state-owned export enterprises have been promulgated one after another, and the list of silver state-owned export enterprises has been published once a year.
Figure12 2006-2011Export trend of silver jewelry and utensils in China.
Source: China Customs, Antaike.
China mainly exports silver primary products such as silver ingots, imported raw materials and silver processing products such as silver concentrate and silver powder.
Table 1 20 1 1 Import and Export of Silver Products in China (unit: tons)
Source: State Customs Administration.
20 1 1 The import and export of domestic silver products continued the downward trend since 2007/2008.
With the improvement of domestic deep processing capacity and the opening of factories in China by some international companies, the supply capacity of silver deep processing products has been improved, and the import has been declining. For example, the import of silver nitrate began to drop sharply in 2007, and the import of silver powder began to drop after reaching its peak in 2008.
From the analysis of import and export products, imported products are high-end products with insufficient domestic production capacity, and exports are mainly primary raw materials. Domestic deep processing technology is at the low-end level, so it is urgent for enterprises to upgrade, develop high-end products and seek development space.
20 1 1 year, the export of other silver jewelry and its parts was 334. 1 ton, down 18.9% year-on-year. The export of silverware and parts 1 1.34 tons, up 60.93% year-on-year. Since the government adjusted the preferential export tax rebate policy in 2007-2008, the preferential policies for silverware and its parts were cancelled, resulting in a sharp drop in exports. From 334 tons in 2007 to 18.2 tons in 2008, a decrease of 94.7%. At the same time, the export volume of other silver jewelry and its parts also decreased from the peak of 525 tons to 433.8 tons, with a decrease of 17.42%.
Figure 13 20 1 1 distribution of silver jewelry and other parts exported to countries and regions.
Source: China Customs, Antaike.
Figure 14 20 1 1 year distribution of silverware and parts exported to countries and regions.
Source: China Customs, Antaike.
From the distribution of exporting countries and regions, in 20 1 1 year, silver jewelry and other parts were mainly exported to the United States, Hong Kong, Germany, Britain, the Netherlands and South Korea, among which the United States and Hong Kong were the main exporting countries and regions, accounting for 4 1% and 3 1% of the total export respectively.
Before the cancellation of the preferential export tax rebate policy in 2007, the export area of silverware and parts was mainly Hong Kong, accounting for 99.6% of the total export. However, the main export areas of 20 1 1 are Hong Kong and Congo, accounting for 57% and 35% respectively.
6. Demand and composition of downstream industries
After the opening of the silver market in 2000, it greatly promoted the development of deep processing industry. With the acceleration of urbanization and industrialization in China, the demand for silver is increasing rapidly.
Domestic silver is mainly used in electronic and electrical, brazing alloy and solder, photography, coin badge, silver jewelry and so on. 20 1 1 year, domestic silver consumption reached 6088 tons, up 6.8% year-on-year.
With the development and maturity of silver industry, the enthusiasm of developing deep-processed products in China is gradually rising. With the progress of science and technology and the improvement of people's living standards, especially the rapid development of electronic industry, the deep processing and development of silver products gradually presents four hot spots: electronic and electrical industry, solder alloy (silver-based alloy), nano-silver and silver-based antibacterial materials. As a means of physical investment, silver coins and medals have attracted more and more attention from domestic consumers and are growing rapidly.