Brokerage stocks can be said to be the vane of the current stock investment market. Many investors believe that brokerage stocks are very suitable for long-term band operation. According to the characteristics of brokerage stocks and grasping the market characteristics of brokerage stocks, here is an analysis of the investment value of brokerage stocks prepared by Bian Xiao, hoping to help you!
What is the frequent rights issue?
On the evening of February 30, 65438, Huatai Securities announced that it planned to allocate shares to all A-share shareholders according to the ratio of 3 shares per 10, and the raised funds would not exceed 28 billion yuan. The rights issue plan shows that the raised funds will be mainly invested in two financing businesses and investment trading businesses.
It is worth noting that Huatai Securities' 28 billion refinancing scale is the largest among A-share brokers, which is the same as the fundraising scale of CITIC Securities' 2 1 year allotment plan.
According to historical experience, it is common for stock prices to plummet after brokers throw out the rights issue plan. Sure enough, Huatai Securities opened sharply lower today, and continued to fall in intraday trading, once falling more than 8%, directly bringing the brokerage sector into the ditch.
In fact, * * *, 22 years, four brokers successfully implemented the rights issue, namely CITIC Securities, orient securities, Caitong Securities and Industrial Securities. After the rights issue, their short-term share prices all fell. Take CITIC Securities as an example. On June 65438+1October 65438+April 22, CITIC Securities, as a leading brokerage firm, issued a rights issue announcement, distributing 1.5 shares to all A-share shareholders for every 10 shares. On the same day, that is, the position marked by the yellow arrow of the old company below, the share price of CITIC Securities plummeted by 5%, and then continued to fall for three months, with a cumulative decline of 25%.
Why do rights issues often encounter investors voting with their feet? Because this financing method is too simple and rude.
Rights issue is a passive financing method, and investors are easily kidnapped. If you don't participate in the rights issue, the share price will be ex-dividend after the rights issue, and your position assets will lose money in vain; If you participate in the rights issue, you have to take extra money to participate in the rights issue. However, in the context of the weak market, especially the 22-year plunge, most investors are trapped and basically have no spare money to participate in the rights issue. Many investors just choose to cut meat and sell it, away from this troubled land. In addition, from the past experience, the dilution of earnings per share may cause investors' funds to flee in the short term, which will lead to a decline in stock prices.
Although many companies in the market no longer use this right issue method, securities companies often use this method to refinance. According to the data, in the past 22 years, four securities firms have successfully issued shares, namely CITIC Securities, orient securities, Caitong Securities and Industrial Securities, with subscription amounts of 22.4 billion yuan, 654.38+0.27 billion yuan, 765.438+0 billion yuan and 654.38+0 billion yuan respectively.
However, insiders pointed out that the short-term profit dilution effect of the rights issue by brokers is limited. In the long run, supplementing liquidity through rights issue will help to enhance the anti-risk ability of securities firms, further enhance their comprehensive strength and better cope with domestic and international market competition.
Can brokers fight back?
In the past 22 years, the brokerage sector can be said to be in darkness, and the brokerage index plummeted by 27.37%, which was the second consecutive year of decline. This decline even exceeded the 18 hit by the stock pledge crisis and the big bear market, with a drop of 26.22% in that year.
Last year, the brokerage index not only underperformed the broader market 12%, but also underperformed banks and insurance in the financial sector by 22% and 14% respectively. It seems that it is really no ordinary scum.
The old driver took a look. The brokerage fund that he has been holding in his fund portfolio has fallen by 25% in the past 22 years. This is the second consecutive year that the fund has lost money, and it has fallen by 3.2% in 2 1 year.
"AI+" Wave and the Trend and Opportunity of Robot Industry
After the Spring Festival, we have seen obvious changes in the market style, mainly manifested in the active performance of some themes or related themes with small-scale growth. The reason for the activity has nothing to do with the change of new technology trends, but also with the current global total factor productivity decline, whether overseas or at home, everyone pays special attention to the change of technical factors. So we saw the breakthrough of artificial intelligence technology represented by ChatGPT in AI, which led to a sudden increase in market attention. The increase in attention has also made us see the rapid strengthening of industrial capital, including everyone's policy expectations. So this is also a big reason why we have recently seen everyone pay attention to the technical level. Another reason is that we have seen that in this year's economic and liquidity environment, both the expectations of the global economy and the expectations of the domestic economy have experienced several rounds of expected fluctuations. Under the expected fluctuation, everyone has not performed in the short term, but some relatively clear directions in the future may have less resistance in the current market environment. Therefore, we see that people pay more attention to the new industry trends in the next few years. In this environment, we put forward five major industrial trends in the next three years.
The first major industry trend is the artificial intelligence industry trend, which we call "AI+". From the beginning of the year, whether it is industrial capital, overseas technology giants, domestic giants or the policy that everyone can expect in the future, it is the "AI+" wave. After the breakthrough of "AI+" wave technology, in the future, in the era of strong artificial intelligence, many industries and industries may be subversive. Under this subversive influence, on the one hand, it has indeed improved the efficiency of many industries; On the other hand, from the perspective of investment, we have previously proposed permeability, and the rapid upward trend of permeability often has a wave of rapid expectations from permeability to fundamentals. Although the fundamentals in the field of artificial intelligence may not be seen this year or even next year, the rapid improvement of penetration rate and future expectations, whether it is the certainty of performance or the certainty of fundamentals, will certainly be fulfilled at some point in the future.
From the perspective of investment, we divide the artificial intelligence industry chain into three levels: basic level, technical level and application level. We have seen that from the beginning of the year, from AI chips to cloud computing to application and data training, the entire "AI+" and ChatGPT industrial chains have received market attention. We suggest that you continue to actively pay attention to the opportunities in this industry. Although the plate has indeed been adjusted in the last week, there are many reasons for the adjustment, and there are also reasons for the rotation of styles. Indeed, the increase was even greater before. Under the disturbance of some events, it is normal for the fluctuation to increase.
Data elements, autonomous controllability and trends and opportunities of energy storage industry
The third industry trend is data elements. In the early stage, we saw relevant policies including data assets entering the table and "data 20". Recently, data elements have cooperated with the outbreak of AI. We all know that the premise of ChatGPT's smarter experience must be training through a large amount of data, and the underlying resources must be data elements. Under the foreshadowing of relevant domestic policies, we have certain advantages in data elements. In the case that we have a large number of manufacturing industries and a large number of consumers, the domestic data element pool will be a very important bottom resource in the future global development of artificial intelligence industry. With the support of this important underlying resource and the cooperation of our policies, related derivative industries may become a very important driving force for GDP growth by developing data-related industries in the future. According to our previous report, the compound growth rate of the whole data factor market is expected to exceed 25% in the next "14 th Five-Year Plan" period. From the perspective of industrial chain, data meta-market includes data security, data acquisition, data storage, processing, circulation, analysis, application and other related industrial chains. Related industrial chains will also get sustainable investment opportunities under the industrial trend.
The fourth major industrial trend is self-control. In the current environment, especially in the recent geo-risk events, policy support will only be strengthened in the foreseeable time. Some policies related to autonomy and controllability are gradually expected, and we feel that the development trend and policy guarantee in the field of autonomy and controllability are very high. From the field point of view, chip manufacturing, key parts of mechanical equipment, automobile parts, military equipment parts and related control systems, and some materials and parts replacement in aerospace fields are all key areas that can be controlled independently. The logic of independent breakthroughs in these key areas in the next few years is very smooth. Except in the manufacturing field, the replacement rate of basic software and industrial software in the software field is relatively low at present, and it is necessary to cooperate with the manufacturing field for independent replacement in the future.
The fifth industry trend is energy storage. Based on the downward trend of cost, especially the price of lithium carbonate in electrochemical energy storage, and the environment that the supporting construction of energy storage needs to be accelerated after the proportion of wind and light increases, the prosperity of energy storage plate is highly certain. In addition to domestic, overseas energy storage also has some relevant policy support. Last year, we all knew that household savings in Europe were very explosive for some reasons. The prosperity of overseas large-scale energy storage and storage represented by the United States will be much higher than last year. In this case, the simultaneous high prosperity at home and abroad led to the rapid outbreak of the entire energy storage plate. At present, the market expects that the entire energy storage industry will nearly double this year.