Real estate stocks are uncertain, and those achievements are all in the past. In the future, the housing market will be greatly affected by policies, and the capital chain will be easily broken, so there are uncertain risks.
Yu Meimei replied: Judging from the current stock market trend, it is still continuing the trend of holding a group years ago and continuing to build a new high trend model of industry leaders. Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., Yiwei Lithium Energy, Arowana and other stocks all hit new highs. Traditional white horse blue-chip stocks such as banks, insurance and real estate have been significantly adjusted. The P/E ratio of bank real estate stocks is indeed low enough, and its continuous adjustment and decline make people unable to bear to look directly at the trend. When everyone is desperate, it is often the time of hope arrival.
In this market, funds prefer white horse growth stocks such as liquor, medicine, consumption and new energy. Banking, insurance and other financial industries are affected by the world economic downturn, and the real estate industry is affected by the national policy of "housing and not speculating". In addition, the demand for housing is decreasing, the industry prospect is uncertain, and market funds are reluctant to participate too much.
At present, there are many people who are not optimistic about banks and real estate stocks, but bank licenses have always been the most wanted by countless rich people. Safety first, tens of billions of insurance funds are invested in real estate enterprises. Business people and stock investors look at problems from different angles. People who do business can better understand the importance of stable profits. The same is true in real life. If you get a bank license, you will be very happy, because it is enough to make money, which is a dream that ordinary people dare not expect, so we should be very optimistic about bank real estate stocks from the heart.
The low share price, good performance and relatively high net assets per share of bank stocks directly lead to a very low P/B ratio of bank stocks. If you don't hold all the stocks as a tool to get rich, then holding stocks such as bank real estate is a qualified financial management method. At present, bank real estate stocks are at a relatively low level and belong to long-term investment. Holding real estate stocks of leading banks will not lose the opportunity of getting rich brought by the once-in-a-few-year big bull market, which banks do not have when buying wealth management.
Affected by the epidemic last year, the annual profit of bank real estate stocks may drop year-on-year in 2020, but this year it is estimated to return to the level of the previous year. To some extent, the quality of the bank real estate industry depends on the overall economic recovery in China. We should be full of confidence in the future development of our country. There will be no big risks in the bank real estate industry. It is unwise to continue to be pessimistic that the profits behind the bank real estate industry will decline year by year.
Once the situation is clear and out of the bottom of the U-shape, we can't buy stocks at the current valuation, even if we buy them as wealth management, we can participate in the subscription of new shares after holding shares. If you are lucky, you can win a new share, which may be a big red envelope, which will bring you unexpected joy.
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The debt ratio is too high, the state does not advocate the development of real estate and banks, there are few buyers, and the market price is low. Of course, the price-earnings ratio is low, and the low price does not rise.
Real estate-time has changed, and the young dragon slayer has become a dragon. Needless to say, real estate speculation, credit and policies continue to suppress, three days in the newspaper. The country has been worried that real estate will hijack the economy. In the past 30 years, real estate has made great contributions to China's economic development, but it has also reached the stage of "turning teenagers into dragons". House prices in Beijing haven't risen much in four or five years. It is good that housing prices in cities below the second tier can remain sideways, except for those cities with long-term net population inflow, such as Shenzhen, Shanghai and some provincial capital cities, most of them continue to decline.
Therefore, only leading companies can buy real estate in the future, and they can't give too high expectations.
On the other hand, banks have two disadvantages. First, the financial system will benefit10.5 trillion entities in 2020.
In 20 19, the overall profit of the financial system was about 2 trillion yuan, which directly reduced the profit in three quarters, and also doomed the financial stocks such as banks to underperform the broader market in 2020.
Second, interest rates continue to fall.
The top has made it clear that it is necessary to lower long-term interest rates. Moreover, bank stocks are all spread trading, and the rising tide is also rising, which leads to the industry generally not optimistic about the profitability of banks in the medium term.
Third, the market funds are limited.
If banks want to take off, they need huge funds to promote them. After the bull market and stock market crash 2.0 in 2007, the funds were held together, which made the banking stocks perform well. However, in 2020, hot spots are scattered, banks are bearish, and the incremental funds in the market are insufficient, which cannot bring enough funds to the banking stocks to continue to push up.
Personally, I have allocated some bank stocks with high dividends in my long-term account. If nothing else, I am playing new shares for stability, high dividends and market value. Seeing what you bought here, you won't earn much, but you won't lose money, so you can buy with peace of mind.
Talking about the advantages of banks, I said so many disadvantages. Are there any advantages?
Of course there is. With the suspension of listing of Ant Financial, it is estimated that the listing will not be restarted in a short time. Many people who eat melons have been "popularized" in the discussion on the high interest rate of "flower buds" in society: it turns out that small loans from banks are so low-interest and so easy to obtain.
Due to the limited credit scale of ants, the personal business of banks is known to more people, and many things that ants and Alipay originally did have become the wedding clothes of traditional big banks.
Breaking the new exchange rate and RRR cut at the beginning of the month also had a negative impact on the downward trend of interest rates to some extent.
Finally, back to the topic, if you don't have Buffett's patience for more than ten years, it's best to wait for the capital to intervene and show its strength before intervening in related stocks. Being n steps ahead is easy to become a martyr. When you see the signs, you can intervene and "dare to make money after entering the market" in order to make money efficiently.
Anyone who speculates in stocks will know that the rise and fall of stocks is driven by funds, not the price-earnings ratio or other news. Therefore, although the price-earnings ratio of stocks is low, without capital, the stock price will definitely not rise.
The most typical A-share market is banking stocks. The average P/E ratio of the whole bank stocks is about 9 times, while some bank stocks only have 4 times P/E ratio. But the stock price is very low all the year round and will never rise.
The same is true of real estate. Although the P/E ratio of many real estates is relatively low, A-share real estate stocks have indeed been ignored by the market in recent years. Many real estate stocks with low P/E ratios, like bank stocks, have never risen.
According to the low P/E ratio of bank stocks and real estate stocks in the A-share market, there are several reasons why the stock price cannot rise:
Reason one: there is no capital speculation.
Although the P/E ratio of bank stocks and real estate stocks is so low, there is no speculation of funds in the secondary market, and the most important reason why bank stocks and real estate stocks can't rise without funds.
If stocks want to go up, they must be driven by funds. For example, liquor stocks with warm funds and piled up funds, Maotai and Wuliangye are flying all over the sky. The most typical thing is that st is willing to give up, and all the funds are flying.
Reason 2: The plate is too big to rise easily.
Bank shares belong to the first-tier blue-chip stocks, many of which are large-cap stocks, and real estate belongs to the second-and third-tier blue-chip stocks, all of which belong to Zhong Da.
Because of this, because the plate is too big, it needs huge funds to push to bank stocks and real estate. Without huge funds, it is impossible to rise.
Reason 3: Being left out by the market.
If banks and real estate fail to rise, they will inevitably be left out by the market. To put it bluntly, they have not become a hot spot in the stock market. In recent years, the stock hotspots have been rotating in brewing, medicine, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, science and technology, military industry and so on.
Take the last two years, financial stocks rose, only securities and insurance rose, and banking stocks failed to rise; When cyclical stocks rise, nonferrous metals, coal, steel, etc. Up, real estate does not rise; This is because these two sectors have been ignored by the market.
Reason 4: plate periodicity.
In fact, banks and real estate are relatively cyclical sectors. To put it bluntly, banks and real estate are not rising, but have not yet arrived. Only when these two sectors rotate, banks and real estate will inevitably rise.
For example, since the beginning of this year, the two major sectors of banks and real estate have been rising from time to time, but the persistence is very weak, and many times they are day trips, so banks and real estate are cyclical, as long as they wait for the opportunity to rise.
To sum it up
Based on the fundamental factors of stock ups and downs and the characteristics of banks and real estate stocks, even if the price-earnings ratio of these two sectors is so low, there are indeed four reasons why they cannot rise, which leads to the failure of these two sectors to rise.
In short, it is clear that if these two sectors want to rise, they must wait for the opportunity of holding shares for a long time, otherwise investors are not advised to blindly participate in such stocks.
The P/E ratios of bank stocks and real estate stocks are all below ten times. The price-earnings ratio is very low, but everyone doesn't like to speculate in such stocks. The growth rate of stock is very low. The plate is too big. There is not much expectation. High-speed growth in performance is impossible. Money is really noisy. This kind of stock can only be issued at the end of the year.
State-owned banks are the wallets of the central government, and they will never go bankrupt (there are too many small and medium-sized banks that the central government cannot manage), and their income is guaranteed (for example, if Yu 'ebao threatens the income of state-owned banks, new policy restrictions will be introduced).
Many people in China are gambling, and they don't like the dividends on the shares of big banks (although the same amount of money pays more dividends than the interest paid by banks).
Due to the uncontrolled issuance of new shares by A-shares, A-shares are seriously short of funds, and bookmakers can only speculate on small and medium-sized stocks, but not on big bank stocks.
Before that, it will rise sharply next year.
Lack of liquidity in the stock market means lack of money. Funds can only be reported to the Group in sectors that are easy to pull up, and dare not concentrate on bank real estate, resulting in failure to pull up and low rate of return.
The market is seriously short of money, and other stocks have to rely on speculation. Bank real estate can outperform deposits through dividends. If all copies are high, there will be no safe funds.