In this forum, China Electric Vehicle committee of 100 launched a new round of discussion around the reform of automobile supply chain with the theme of "Global change and automobile supply chain under the goal of double carbon". What is the goal of "double carbon"? Namely, peak carbon dioxide emission and carbon neutrality. At the National People's Congress in 20021,the peak of carbon dioxide emission and carbon neutrality were written into the government work report for the first time. So in this context, what kind of historical mission will new energy vehicles undertake?
China promises to achieve the goal of "double carbon"
China will increase its national independent contribution and adopt more effective policies and measures, and strive to achieve the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. "
This is exactly the "double carbon" goal put forward by China in response to global climate change. China's commitment has also aroused great repercussions around the world and won positive comments from the international community. After that, China mentioned the goal of "double carbon" many times. It is further announced that by 2030, China's carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by more than 65% compared with 2005, the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption will reach about 25%, the forest stock will increase by 6 billion cubic meters compared with 2005, and the total installed capacity of wind power and solar power will reach more than 654.38+02 billion kilowatts.
Why should we spare no effort to achieve the goal of double carbon? Wang, director of the Industrial Economics Department of the State Council Development Research Center, said that according to the IPCC report, the global temperature has increased by 1. 1 degree since industrialization. If the current situation is maintained, the global temperature will continue to rise, which will be a major obstacle to global sustainable development.
"The peak of carbon dioxide emission and carbon neutrality have become a global consensus." Chen Qingtai, Chairman of China Electric Vehicle committee of 100, said that all countries are making carbon emission reduction plans according to their own schedules.
Therefore, in the context of dual carbon, China will also play its role. As the largest developing country in the world, China will have a positive impact on global climate change in order to achieve the goal of carbon doubling. It is worth mentioning that the report released by WWF and other NGOs 18 pointed out that the carbon emission target of China's climate change action has exceeded its "fair share". However, China, as a responsible big country, should also bear this historical responsibility.
The task of achieving the goal of "double carbon" is arduous
However, there are still many challenges to achieve the goal of "double carbon".
In 20 19, the carbon dioxide produced by China's production and consumption activities reached1000 million tons/year, accounting for 30% of the global 33 10/000 million tons, with an annual increase of about 1.5%. As a developing country, China's total primary energy consumption will reach 4.98 billion tons of standard coal in 2020, up 2.2% year-on-year, accounting for 23. 1% of the world. The proportion of coal in the primary energy structure is as high as 56.8%, which is twice the world average of 27.2%.
Li, former Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and President of China Federation of Industrial Economics, said that the task of carbon neutrality in 2030 and 2060 is arduous and the situation is grim. "Developed countries reached the peak of carbon dioxide emissions at the end of last century and the beginning of this century, and promised to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050."
Li said that the peak value of carbon dioxide emissions did not push the peak value, but lowered the peak value to reduce the pressure of carbon neutrality. "It usually takes 50 years or more from the peak of carbon dioxide emissions to carbon-neutral developed countries, while China has only 30 years, which is even more difficult. After the peak of carbon dioxide emissions, it is still necessary to continuously reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Part of CO2 will be captured, reused, transformed and fixed in other forms. The remaining CO2 produced by animal and plant life processes can be absorbed by ecological' carbon sinks', making the net emissions zero. "
Wang also pointed out that China's carbon emissions in steel, electricity, non-ferrous metals and other fields are still rising before 2025, and the carbon emissions in construction and transportation may continue to increase before 2030. "This situation also means that it is a very difficult task for us to neutralize the peak carbon dioxide emissions in 2030 and 2060, and every department must do its best." Wang said to him.
Therefore, Li believes that China's industry is the main source of carbon dioxide emissions, so to achieve the goal of "double carbon", energy is the source and industry is the focus. China is still in the late stage of industrialization, so we must persist in deepening energy conservation and reducing consumption, improving quality and reducing carbon.
New energy vehicles are the strategic choice under the goal of "double carbon"
The task of reducing carbon in the transportation field is also self-evident. Data show that road traffic is the third largest carbon emission source in China, accounting for about 10% of the total carbon emissions. According to a research report of China International Finance Corporation, from 2008 to 20 18, the traffic carbon dioxide emissions in China increased by 580 million tons, of which 510 billion tons came from road traffic, accounting for 88% of the total increase. The reason behind this is that the number of passenger cars in China has increased by 557% in this decade, which is the main driving force for the growth of carbon emissions.
Chen Qingtai pointed out that compared with developed countries, the clean transformation of road traffic in China is facing greater pressure, mainly because the number of cars in developed countries has stabilized, while the number of cars in China will continue to grow for a long time to come. In the foreseeable future, China's car ownership is still in the growth stage, which increases the pressure of emission reduction.
Therefore, Chen Qingtai said that if the newly-added vehicles are still mainly fuel vehicles, it will cause great disasters. If all the new vehicles are zero-emission or ultra-low-emission vehicles and the existing vehicles gradually turn to electrification, then the goal of road traffic emission can be achieved. "China's automobile electrification process must be faster than other countries, and the' double carbon' timetable for road traffic must be based on the national carbon dioxide emission peak and carbon neutrality timetable."
Li stressed that improving the economy of fuel-fired vehicles in the near future is still an important way to reduce the carbon emissions of vehicles. In 2020, the number of cars in China will be 28 1 10,000, of which only 4.92 million are new energy vehicles, which means that fuel vehicles still account for 98.2%, and the annual consumption of gasoline and diesel is about 260 million tons. "If fuel-fired vehicles further improve energy-saving technology and improve the quality of gasoline and diesel during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, for every reduction in 1% fuel consumption, they can reduce nearly 7.5 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions, that is, save 2.6 million tons of fuel. If fuel is saved 10%, it will be even more impressive."
In the medium and long term, pure electric vehicles will become the main direction for the automobile industry to achieve the goal of "double carbon". Li said that pure electric vehicles do not directly produce carbon dioxide during use. But the problem is that coal-fired power still accounts for nearly 70% of the electricity composition in China today. However, by comparing the carbon emissions of fuel vehicles and pure electric vehicles, even in the process of use, pure electric vehicles can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by about 25%. In the future, with the increase of the proportion of non-fossil energy in electricity, its emission reduction effect will become more and more obvious.
Therefore, the future electrification of automobiles must be based on green energy. As Chen Qingtai said, renewable energy sources such as wind energy and light energy are developing well in China. However, if electric vehicles want to supplement these intermittent renewable energy sources, it involves the connection between energy system and transportation system, the support of technological innovation, the guarantee of infrastructure, the standardization of standards and regulations and other issues. This is a huge systematic project, which requires the government to plan ahead.
According to agency estimates, the number of cars in China will probably increase from 280 million to 450 million in 2030, among which new energy vehicles will increase from 4.92 million to 80 million. Through efforts, road traffic carbon dioxide emissions will increase from 750 million tons to 980 million tons, and will decrease after reaching the peak in 2030. It can be seen that new energy vehicles bear a huge mission under the goal of double carbon.