Report outline:

Economic survey in the first half of the year

Overview of real estate market in the first half of the year

5-8 Open the Project

Opening and promotion projects after September.

Market analysis and forecast

General situation of economy in the first half of the year (nationwide)

In the first half of 2007, the national economy continued to develop steadily and rapidly, and the overall economic situation was good. Consumption growth accelerated, agricultural production developed steadily, economic benefits continued to improve, and people's lives further improved. In the first half of the year, the GDP increased by 1 1.5%, and the consumer price index increased by 3.2%.

In view of the liquidity problem caused by the continuous excessive expansion of money and credit in the banking system, the People's Bank of China, in accordance with the unified arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, has taken a series of measures in time to strengthen financial macro-control and maintain the total balance. With the open market operation and the use of hedging instruments such as deposit reserve, the liquidity of new foreign exchange holdings has basically recovered. Since 2007, the People's Bank of China has raised the deposit reserve ratio by 3 percentage points for six times and the benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans of financial institutions for three times. At the same time, guide the optimization of credit structure, steadily promote the reform of financial institutions, further enhance the flexibility of RMB exchange rate, and accelerate the reform of foreign exchange management system.

On the whole, under the comprehensive effect of various macro-control measures, liquidity in the banking system has been reasonably controlled. Although money and credit are still running at a high level, the momentum of excessive growth has eased. At the end of June, M2 of broad money supply increased by 17. 1% year-on-year, and decreased by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year. The balance of RMB loans increased by 65,438+06.5% year-on-year, which was 65,438+0.3 and 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period of last year and the end of the first quarter of 2007 respectively. In the first half of the year, new loans were 2.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 368 1 billion yuan over the same period of last year. The flexibility of RMB exchange rate has been further enhanced. At the end of June, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.6 155 yuan, an appreciation of 2.54% over the end of last year.

In the second half of the year, the domestic and international economic environment is still favorable on the whole, and China's national economy is expected to continue to maintain a high growth rate, but we should be more prepared for danger in times of peace, enhance our sense of hardship, and fully understand the hidden risks in economic operation. At present, the trend of China's economic growth from fast to hot is more obvious, and the problems of excessive trade surplus, excessive credit supply and excessive investment growth are still outstanding; High-energy-consuming industries are growing rapidly, and the situation of energy conservation and emission reduction is still grim; The pressure of rising prices continues to increase, especially some food prices and housing that involve the vital interests of the people.

House prices have risen rapidly.

The People's Bank of China will adhere to the primary task of macro-control in accordance with the unified arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council. We will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy, adhere to moderate tightening, maintain necessary regulatory efforts, strive to maintain a stable monetary and financial environment, control inflation expectations, and maintain basically stable prices. Continue to coordinate the use of open market operations and deposit reserve ratio tools, actively innovate hedging tools according to the needs of macroeconomic regulation and control, and strengthen liquidity management. We will steadily push forward the reform of interest rate marketization, promote the construction of the benchmark interest rate system in the money market, and further enhance the regulatory role of price leverage. In accordance with the principles of initiative, controllability and gradualism, we will continue to improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. Continue to promote the reform of the foreign exchange management system. Actively cooperate with national fiscal and taxation policies, industrial policies, foreign trade and foreign investment policies, environmental protection policies and other key tasks, guide financial institutions to further optimize the credit structure, guard against credit risks, and promote economic restructuring and economic growth mode transformation. Promote the development of financial market around four aspects: innovation, development, standardization and coordination. Further deepen the reform of financial enterprises with the focus on improving corporate governance and optimizing financial structure.

General situation of economy in the first half of the year (Kunming)

A few days ago, it was learned from the press conference of the economic operation data of the first half of 2007 by the Municipal Bureau of Statistics that in the first half of this year, Kunming achieved a regional GDP of 59.397 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.438+04.2%, the fastest growth in the past decade. In addition, the most interesting CPI data is 3.2%, which is the same as the national data.

The data shows that in the first half of the year, Kunming's economy continued to develop rapidly, the internal quality of economic operation continued to improve, and the city's economic operation showed a sound and rapid development trend.

quick

GDP: 2.7 percentage points higher than the national level.

According to preliminary estimates, in the first half of 2007, the city's GDP reached 59.397 billion yuan, up 65.438 04.2% year-on-year, the fastest growth rate in the past decade, 2.7 percentage points higher than that of the whole country.

From the perspective of industrial structure, the added value of the primary industry was 2910.3 billion yuan, up 4.8% year-on-year; The added value of the secondary industry was 27.308 billion yuan, up 65.438+07.4%, of which the industrial added value was 240.7/kloc-0.0 billion yuan, up 65.438+07.4%, and the construction added value was 3.237 billion yuan, up 65.438+06.9%. The added value of the tertiary industry was 2,965,438+76 million yuan, an increase of 12.3%.

High quality

Agriculture: Summer grain has been harvested for three consecutive years.

In the first half of the year, the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery in the city was 4.972 billion yuan, an increase of 6.0% over the same period last year. Among them, the total output value of agriculture was 2.224 billion yuan, and the total output value of animal husbandry was 2.248 billion yuan, up by 4.5% and 8.4% respectively, accounting for 44.7% and 45.2% of the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, the pillar industries of the city's agricultural development.

The city's summer grain output was 260 1 10,000 tons, an increase of 2,678 tons over the previous year, with an increase of 1.04%. Harvest for three consecutive years.

The vegetable output value of the city was 906 million yuan, up 6. 1% year-on-year, accounting for 40.7% of the total agricultural output value of the city. The output value of flowers was 546 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 24.5% of the city's agricultural output value.

The output of major livestock products in the city has increased in an all-round way. The total output of meat, eggs and milk in the city was 6.5438 0.8 million tons, 27.7 million tons and 43.6 million tons respectively, increasing by 4.4%, 654.38 0.5% and 2.2% respectively over the same period of last year.

Industry: the growth rate of main benefit indicators exceeds 20%

In the first half of the year, the added value of all industries in the city reached 24.075438 billion yuan, up 65.438+07.4% year-on-year. Among them, industrial enterprises with annual main business income of more than 5 million yuan (hereinafter referred to as industrial enterprises above designated size) realized an added value of 20.587 billion yuan, an increase of 19.0%.

Among industrial enterprises, state-owned and state-controlled enterprises have developed the fastest. The city's state-owned and state-controlled economies above designated size realized industrial added value of16.728 billion yuan, up by 2,654.38+0.4% year-on-year, which was 2.4 percentage points higher than the average increase of industries above designated size, accounting for 8,654.38+0.3% of the added value of industries above designated size.

From June 5438 to May, the comprehensive index of economic benefits of industrial enterprises above designated size was 272.3%, an increase of 23. 1 percentage point over the same period of last year. The rate of capital preservation and appreciation was 132.28%, an increase of 34.7 percentage points; The per capita total labor productivity was 202,600 yuan, an increase of 20.9%; Total profits and taxes11157 million yuan, up by 26.4%, of which the total profit was 4.553 billion yuan, up by 26.0%. The loss of loss-making enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. These data show that the internal operation quality of the city's industrial economy was good in the first half of the year, and the economic benefits were further improved.

Tourism: the total income is 7.908 billion.

In the first half of the year, the city received 33 1 10000 overseas tourists, up 6. 1% year-on-year, and the total tourism revenue was 7.908 billion yuan, up 6.2%.

The average stay time of overseas tourists in Kunming increased from 65,438 0.37 days in the same period last year to 65,438 0.48 days. The foreign exchange income from tourism was 84,677,600 USD, up by 14.7%. Among them, the highlight of European market is the most prominent. The European market, which has been developing slowly for many years, has increased by 9.5% this year, among which France and Germany, which have the largest number of tourists to Kunming, have increased by 29.6% and 12.9% respectively.

The city received12,093,300 domestic tourists, with a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, of which overnight tourists increased by 8.6% and day tourists increased by 25.8%. Domestic tourism revenue was 72,365.438 billion yuan, an increase of 5.4%.

Finance: the balance of deposits and loans increased steadily.

At the end of June, the balance of RMB deposits in financial institutions in the city was 337.944 billion yuan, an increase of 10.6% over the beginning of the year. Among them, the balance of savings deposits of urban and rural residents11923.3 billion yuan, an increase of 3.2%; The company's deposit balance13610.38 billion yuan, an increase of10%.

The balance of RMB loans from financial institutions was 3018.253 billion yuan, up by 12.9% and 3638 1 0.00 billion yuan respectively, of which the balance of medium and long-term loans was194.826 billion yuan, up by 12.2% compared with the beginning of the year, and the balance of short-term loans was/

General situation of real estate market in the first half of the year (nationwide)

Analysis of China's house price in the first half of 2007 and its later trend forecast August 2, 2007 10: 35: 25. In the first half of this year, the national housing prices continued to rise, and the recent price increase accelerated. It is estimated that the annual housing price increase may be slightly higher than last year.

First, in the first half of the year, from the centralized transaction price monitoring of 36 large and medium-sized cities, house prices were running at a high level in the first half of the year, and the chain-on-chain increase was low before and then high, and the upward trend accelerated.

(1) The house price is obviously higher than that of the previous year. Compared with the same period of last year, the centralized transaction price of commercial housing increased by 14.22% in the first half of this year, up by 5.38 percentage points over the whole year of last year. Among them, the price of commercial housing rose by 16.34%, up by 7.89 percentage points over last year. The centralized transaction price of stock houses increased by 16.05% compared with the same period of last year, and the increase rate was 18.03 percentage points faster than that of last year, among which the residential price of stock houses increased by 15.46%, and the increase rate was 5. 14 percentage points faster.

(2) The rise of house prices has gradually accelerated. In the first half of the year, commercial housing rose by 6.45% in the second quarter, 4.53 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter, and the growth rate was significantly improved. The chain price was 0.0 1%, -0.63%, 3.30%, 1.76%, 2.42% and 2.90%, respectively, and the increase was low before and then high, and the increase was accelerated month by month. The price of stock houses increased obviously, with a decrease of 0.24% in the first quarter and an increase of 10.07% in the second quarter. The chain growth rates were-1.05%, -0.25%, 0.93%, 4.54%, 4.24% and 5.47% respectively, and the growth rate also increased month by month.

Second, judging the trend in the latter part of this year Since March this year, the centralized transaction price of commercial housing in 36 large and medium-sized cities across the country has risen by more than 1.5% for four consecutive months, which is the first time since 2004. Judging from the current situation, it is difficult to eliminate the factors that promote the recent rapid rise in housing prices in the short term. It is expected that the trend of rapid rise in housing prices nationwide will continue for some time later this year, and the annual increase may be slightly higher than last year.

(A) the growth rate of new housing supply declined, and the process of structural adjustment was slow. From the statistics of real estate development since 2000, the growth rate of new housing supply has been declining year by year. First, the land development rate (land development area/land acquisition area in the same period) continued to decline, from 77.9% in 1999 to 54.3% in 2005. Second, the completion rate of commercial housing and residential housing construction area (housing completion area/housing construction area in the same period) decreased year by year, from 40.8% in 2000 to 28.55% in 2006; In the first five months of this year, the completion rate of commercial housing was only 7.4%, lower than the level of 8.2% in the same period last year. Third, the sales area is growing faster than the supply. From June to May this year, the sales area of commercial housing in China was 2114800 square meters, which was 2. 1 1 times of the completed area in the same period.

From the perspective of supply structure, although some cities have made plans to build affordable housing and adjust housing structure, the implementation progress is still slow. The investment in affordable housing accounts for 4. 1% of the investment in commercial housing from June to May, while the investment in ordinary commercial housing below 90 square meters only accounts for 17.2% of the investment in commercial housing in the first four months. Judging from the situation in Beijing, at the beginning of July, Beijing Real Estate Transaction Management Network showed that the average areas of saleable forward houses and existing houses were still above 140 and 160 square meters respectively, and there was still a big gap between the adjustment of housing supply structure and market demand.

(2) The phenomenon of developers hoarding land to build houses is serious, which aggravates the contradiction between supply and demand. According to the annual reports of listed companies in 2006, some real estate listed companies have large land reserves, with the total planned construction area of land reserves exceeding 3 million square meters and individual enterprises exceeding 6,543,800 square meters. According to the current annual development volume of land storage enterprises, it can generally be continuously developed for several years, and there is no need to purchase new land. The land reserve of individual enterprises can be developed for 6 or 7 years. Other unlisted development enterprises also have land reserves of different scales.

In the case of rapid rise in housing prices, some developers build instead of selling, and the phenomenon of property hoarding is also very serious. Some developers adopt mass sales, delayed opening time, internal subscription, and substantial price increase to lengthen the sales cycle and push up housing prices by controlling the speed of listing new houses. According to the forecast of the amount of real estate projects started last year, there are dozens of projects delayed in Beijing this year alone. Some media surveys show that the opening time of individual properties has even been delayed for one year, and the price has also increased by nearly 20%.