& gt a screenshot of the letter "why the United States can beat China: the fact that space exploration technology companies spend money" published by Elon Musk in the company's official website on April 4th.
The low-cost EELV rocket previously developed in the United States is also difficult to compare with the Falcon 9 rocket of space exploration technology company in terms of development cost.
Leo of Falcon 9 has surpassed all active rockets in China, including the Long March 2F (left). LEO of Falcon 9HLV will surpass China's Long March 5 in the future.
On May 4th, Elon Musk, CEO of Space Exploration Technology Company, published a letter on the updated page of the company's website, entitled "Why America Can Beat China: The Fact of Space Exploration Technology Company's Cost". In this article, Elon Musk proudly mentioned that in the report of Aviation Weekly, China Great Wall Company admitted that it could not compete with space exploration technology companies in price, and thought it was a typical example that American innovation beat cheaper overseas workers.
The cost of launching rockets is lower than that of China.
In his letter, Elon Musk listed the outstanding achievements of Space Exploration Technology Company in cost control, which were enough to make the aerospace industry all over the world feel ashamed: the standard launch cost of Falcon 9 rocket was 54 million dollars, and it has already obtained orders from the government and commercial markets. Musk is confident that due to the high vertical integration of design and production of space exploration technology company, this price will further decline over time; Dragon spacecraft won the cargo contract of the International Space Station from NASA, with a single cost of $6543.8+$33 billion. This is a fixed-price contract signed in 2008. NASA awarded Space Exploration Technology Company a contract worth 654.38+06 billion dollars to purchase 654.38+02 cargo ships. Although the US$ 65.438+33 billion in that year was only equivalent to today's US$ 65.438+65.438+05 billion due to inflation and other factors, the fixed-price contract means that the inflation quotation will not increase, which makes people have to admire its confidence in cost control.
A simple fact can be cited here: the launch cost of the United Launch Alliance (ULA), which currently monopolizes the large and medium-sized payload launch market in the United States, increased by 30% in fiscal year 20 12, and the quotation for four launches was1740,000 US dollars, with an average of 435 million US dollars per launch. Ariane's quotations in Europe and the US-Russia International Launch Service Company are not low, and both of them filed for bankruptcy protection in Haishe Company, which increased the launch cost. Even the cheap Long March 3B rocket of China Great Wall Company will cost more than 60 million dollars.
R&D expenditure further widened the distance with competitors.
If it is difficult to compete with the launch quotations of rockets and spaceships, then the research and development costs of space exploration technology companies are far from those of government space agencies or commercial space companies in other countries. The Falcon 9 heavy launch vehicle took four and a half years from the drawing board to the first launch, and the research and development cost was only slightly higher than 300 million US dollars. From the drawing board to the first launch of the dragon spacecraft, it took four years from scratch and the research and development cost was about 300 million US dollars. Space exploration technology company was established in 2002 and ended in fiscal year 20 10, with a total expenditure of slightly less than $800 million. Since 2007, the company has been profitable for four consecutive years. These cold figures are too shocking for enthusiasts who care about the aerospace industry.
As for the development cost, the EELV rocket in the United States spent $3.5 billion, the Ariane 5 rocket spent more, and the Falcon 9 rocket spent $300 million, which was an order of magnitude lower. In terms of spacecraft development, the shenzhou spaceship developed by China in 1990s spent RMB 3 billion, the Japanese/KOOC-0/97 HTV cargo spacecraft spent 68 billion yen/850 million US dollars, and the European/KOOC-0/95 ATV cargo spacecraft spent/KOOC-0/900 million US dollars. All these comparisons show the success of space exploration technology company in cost control.
Space Exploration Technology Company surpassed China in space technology.
Space exploration technology company is quite successful in cost, but this is not because of the use of old mature technology. They are also excellent in technology. Although the thrust of Ashback liquid oxygen kerosene engine of Falcon 9 rocket is not high, its specific impulse is the highest among the open-cycle liquid oxygen kerosene engines, especially the specific impulse of the upper-stage improved Ashback reached an unprecedented 345 seconds. Falcon 9 is the first rocket in the world that uses high-strength 2 195 Al-Li alloy completely in the structure and material of the arrow body. The structural quality is very low, and the second-class arrow body is only 3 tons.
Falcon 9 rocket is equally excellent in the management of surplus fuel. These technologies make Falcon-9 rocket have the same carrier coefficient as Zenith-2 rocket which generally uses high-pressure afterburner cycle liquid oxygen kerosene engine. In terms of carrying capacity, the transport capacity of Falcon 9 rocket in low earth orbit (LEO) is higher than any existing LEO orbit launch vehicle in China. The LEO carrying capacity of the heavy Falcon rocket announced in April this year 1 has reached an unprecedented 45 tons, which can be further increased to 53 tons if the propellant cross-conveying technology is added. This carrying capacity is much higher than the existing launch vehicles in various countries, and twice that of the US space shuttle and China Long March V launch vehicle. In the words of CEO elon musk, this is the success of American innovation.
On June 30th, 2008, 10, a Venezuelan communication satellite was put into orbit by a Long March 3B rocket. China's low price advantage in the past gave China a certain market share, but now it is strongly challenged by space exploration technology companies.
China has obvious advantages in labor cost.
Because the title of elon musk's open letter explicitly mentions China, and the achievements made by space exploration technology companies in the past few years have attracted people's attention, this letter has also aroused great repercussions in the forum in China. For a long time, we have always believed that China has cheaper labor, and even if it can't compete with European and American powers in the late-developing high-tech field, it should have an advantage in cost in relatively mature fields. This means that the number of engineers in China is much higher than that in the United States, and the labor cost is cheap. We can definitely gradually enter the high-tech field and squeeze the market share of developed countries with price advantage. Moreover, in the aerospace field, historical records also support our price advantage.
China's commercial launch offer was once the lowest in the world.
Since China entered the international market, the commercial launch quotation of the United States has been higher than that of Great Wall Company. Even the gradual disposable launch vehicle (EELV) developed to reduce the cost is much higher than the Long March 3 B rocket of Great Wall Company. The launch cost of United Launch Alliance (ULA) is not only higher than that of China, but also higher than that of Russian and even ESA. American industry seems to be declining in the high-end field. Many consulting companies and economists predict that the industrial output value of China will surpass that of the United States in 20 1 1 year, which will be a historic scene in11year.
Space exploration technology companies have sprung up in the aerospace field.
It's less than halfway through the year of 20 1 1. Many people suddenly find that in the space field, the launch cost and rocket spacecraft research and development cost of an American private company are far lower than those of China, and the technology has also exceeded the level of China's space industry. This can't help but surprise people. In a sense, it is a blow to over-optimists. While being shocked by the successful performance of space exploration technology company, we have to think about where the competitiveness of this company comes from. For this problem, the history of space exploration technology company is the best explanation.
Elon musk and Falcon 9 rocket before launch. Elon musk is ambitious. His ultimate goal is to colonize Mars, adopt flexible R&D mechanism and promote the research of rocket reuse technology.
Create a goal: break down barriers and colonize Mars.
The earth is too dangerous. You'd better go back to Mars. This line in shaolin soccer is often used to satirize what we think of as "Martians". Interestingly, the birth of space exploration technology company is actually directly related to the idea that the earth is too dangerous. Elon Musk believes that under the threat of natural disasters and self-destruction (such as nuclear war), emigrating to other planets is the only way to continue our human civilization.
Elon Musk also believes that the existing national space agencies are deeply bound by red tape, which leads to the high cost of space launch. He believes that more flexible commercial companies can greatly reduce the cost of space launch by conducting space activities. After selling the shares of Paypal, elon musk founded Space Exploration Technology Company in 2002, and personally served as CEO and technical director. His goal is to reduce the launch cost to110 of the commercial space launch market at that time, and he plans to develop super-giant rockets for interstellar colonization in the future.
Rocket reuse technology has been gradually applied.
Based on this ambition, Falcon 1 and Falcon 9 rockets are designed with reuse in mind to achieve the goal of reducing the launch cost by an order of magnitude. Elon musk's personal dream and enterprising spirit have made great contributions to the current success of Space Exploration Technology Company. Without such ambitious entrepreneurs, it is impossible to create an enterprising company like Space Exploration Technology Company, and there will be no such successful cost control and the resulting low launch cost. Due to the technical difficulty of rocket reuse, Falcon rocket has not completed the first-level reuse, and the current quotation of Falcon rocket has not considered the reuse factor. After the future reuse is completed, the existing quotation will be further greatly reduced.
The reusability of rockets is not empty talk of space exploration technology companies. On June 20 10, the first stage of Falcon 9 rocket disintegrated in the air, but in the second launch a few months later, the first stage did not fully recover, but it successfully received telemetry signals, which was a step closer to success. In the future, recycling technology will be tested in the launch of Falcon 9 rocket. If nothing unexpected happens, we hope to see the news that Falcon 9 will be reused in a few years.
Friction stir welding machine sold in private market. Space exploration technology company has adopted a large number of mature technologies and mature equipment in research and development.
Space exploration technology company did not start from scratch.
Unlike many people's imagination, space exploration technology company is not the illegitimate child of NASA or aerospace giants, nor has it received direct technology transfer, but this does not mean that space exploration technology company starts from scratch. Thanks to the huge investment of NASA and the US Air Force in the space industry in the past few decades, the US space industry has the highest technical level, the most perfect industrial chain and a large number of experienced engineers in the world.
Use a lot of mature technology and mature equipment.
At present, the main engine of Space Exploration Technology Company, Falcon 1, is the most important injector, and the overall design of the engine also comes from TRW. The vice president of the propulsion department of Space Exploration Technology Company is one of the core designers of TRW. Space Exploration Technology Company's 2 195 Al-Li alloy and friction stir welding do not need independent research and development technology like other NASA. 2 195 Al-Li alloy has long been used in the external fuel tank of the space shuttle, and friction stir welding is a commodity, so it is only necessary to purchase relevant equipment directly, which greatly reduces the development cost of the rocket. With the support of the powerful equipment manufacturing industry and aerospace industry in the United States, space exploration technology companies have no heavy historical burden of companies such as the United Launch Alliance, and with more flexible mechanisms, they naturally have advantages over competitors in other countries.
President Obama met with the staff of Space Exploration Technology Company and expressed the government's support for commercial space companies. Please note that the person on the far right in the picture is elon musk, CEO of Space Exploration Technology Company.
NASA promotes commercial railway transportation services.
Elon musk's success can be said to be a hero of the times, and the development of space exploration technology companies and the support of American government agencies contributed greatly. In the early days, space exploration technology company lacked income. If the external environment has been like this, maybe it will be as blowing in the wind as those early commercial aerospace companies with unpaid ambitions. The biggest help to space exploration technology company is the change of NASA. In 2004, after President George W. Bush was re-elected, he launched the Constellation Program. According to the plan, NASA will withdraw from the earth orbit launch mission and turn to deep space. Earth orbit transportation will be handed over to commercial companies, and commercial orbit transportation services (COTS) came into being.
Space exploration technology company has received a large number of orders in succession.
In 2006, Space Exploration Technology Company participated in the competition of commercial spot and won the first-stage contract of commercial spot worth $278 million. On April 22, 2008, NASA awarded Space Exploration Technology a launch service contract worth 200 million to 654.38 billion US dollars. A series of launches will be carried out with Falcon rockets from June 30th, 2065.438+00 to June 30th, 2065.438+02. The final contract amount will be determined according to the launch tasks and times. On the same day, Space Exploration Technology announced that it would hold 654.38. In June 5438+February, 2008, Space Exploration Technology Company also won the official commercial supply service (CRS) contract of NASA. This fixed-price contract is worth $654.38+06 billion, including 654.38+02 cargo service launches. These contracts not only brought funds, but also enhanced the confidence of potential business customers in the company. 20 10 in June, Space Exploration Technology Company won the largest commercial contract, which will use several Falcon 9 rockets to launch the next generation of iridium satellites, with a total value of 492 million US dollars. 20 1 1 In April, Space Exploration Technology Company won the second phase contract of commercial passenger transport development worth 75 million dollars.
The huge supporting role of NASA cannot be ignored.
Although Space Exploration Technology Co., Ltd. has won many commercial contracts, so far Space Exploration Technology Co., Ltd. has only used Falcon 1 rocket for 1 commercial launches, and the deposit of existing commercial contracts has been unprofitable for four consecutive years since 2007. The support of NASA's commercial railway transportation services and other projects is very important for the development of space exploration technology companies. In fact, space exploration technology company is not an isolated case. After World War II, Boeing's Boeing 707 passenger planes were exported to five continents and four seas, but few people know that as the prototype of Boeing 707, the US military purchased more C- 135 transport planes. This strong support from the government has made the American aviation industry more competitive. The government contract obtained by Space Exploration Technology Company is only a repeat of this scene, which also gives Space Exploration Technology Company a greater cost advantage than space service providers in other countries.
The U.S. government has postponed commercial passenger transport projects so that more companies can compete with the space exploration technology company's dragon spacecraft.
Although Elon Musk is committed to reducing launch costs, the personal wishes of executives may not come true. For space exploration technology companies, competitive pressure is also an important factor for the success of cost control.
Different from the joint launch alliance that monopolizes the market, Space Exploration Technology Company, as a new small company, lacks personal connections and sufficient historical launch performance, and has a long-standing rival-Orbital Science Company in the COTS project competition.
In two rounds of COTS competition, they had to cut costs and try their best to get extra points. In its original design, Space Exploration Technology Company developed a dragon spacecraft with manned capacity, which is in a leading position in the competition of commercial passenger service. If the current bidding is inevitable, it will monopolize the market.
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) specially promotes the development of commercial passenger transport. In a few years, all kinds of manned spacecraft will come into being. Under the pressure of many competitors, space exploration technology companies have no capital to intimidate customers into raising prices.
China's space industry, like the United States, has more or less the drawbacks of the national system. This has formed a great obstacle to future innovation.
Standardization and Universal Production of Rocket Components
Although the aerospace industry in the United States is developed, it has been sitting on government contracts for a long time and has made no progress. In addition, the bureaucratic atmosphere is increasingly gloomy, and the cost from subsystem to rocket ship is seriously expanding. In order to control the cost, Space Exploration Technology Company largely imitated the early Ford Company. By shortening the supply chain, we should try our best to design and produce rocket spacecraft subsystems ourselves, and reduce costs with a high degree of vertical integration. In terms of engineering design, space exploration technology companies Falcon 9 and Falcon 9 will both use the gray-backed Falcon 1 engine, and they will try their best to be universal in terms of arrow body design and navigation control. Through the standardization and generalization of rocket parts, mass production will reduce the shared design cost and production cost, which is also an important factor for them to reduce costs.
Under the national system, it is easy to cause an inflated space cost.
In contrast, whether Boeing's Delta IV rocket is not universal or China's Long March rocket is homologous, it still has other arrows and has to give up. Elon musk believes that bureaucracy is the most critical factor in the inflation of launch cost. Seeing the practice of space exploration technology company, we have to agree with him. Breaking through these redundant bureaucracies, the emergence of new commercial companies like Space Exploration Technology Company is essential. Looking forward to the self-reflection and renewal of rigid giant enterprises and bureaucracies, there can only be a farce of repeated and substantial price increases like the United Launch Alliance.
The combination of ambitious founders, developed industrial base, strong government support, fully competitive market and advanced and effective management has given space exploration technology companies an unprecedented launch cost advantage, even surpassing China and India, where labor costs are extremely low. Its development history is legendary.
Behind the legendary story, we can find that only the United States has these favorable factors at the same time. Elon Musk wrote in an open letter: China is the country with the fastest economic growth, but the free enterprise system in the United States ensures that the United States still has the strongest innovation capability. With the increasing costs in all aspects and the urgent need for industrial upgrading, how to emulate this innovation, especially whether it can break through the system of "concentrating on doing great things", is also a question worthy of China's consideration. Please enter your answers here, and every professional answer will shape your authoritative image.