The long-term prospects are clearer.
Short-term risks are more prominent.
From the perspective of market research and judgment, 20 14 investment will be a combination of "clearer long-term prospects and more prominent short-term risks".
On the one hand, the overall interest rate has risen to a higher level than 20 13, which will become the main factor to suppress the A-share market in the short term; On the other hand, the optimistic expectation of the long-term results of the reform is the core factor supporting the market upward. The above-mentioned factors of "no worries in the near future" will alternately dominate the future market.
"It is impossible to overcome the disadvantages accumulated over the years overnight. Deepening reform in an all-round way is a long process. What we may wait for first is not the reform dividend, but the pain and cost of reform. Therefore, short-term risk is a realistic problem that A-share investment cannot avoid. " Harvest's leading growth said.
It is in this tangled expectation that the fund generally judges that it will continue its structural characteristics during the year; However, based on the excessive increase in the previous period and the potential risks of both valuation and performance, the Fund expects that the market of growth stocks will be difficult to replicate last year.
"In the past, due to the shortage of funds, concerns about the uncertainty of credit risk and the impact of IPO issuance, the market continued to shrink and adjust, and investment sentiment was sluggish." In view of this, the advantage of Haifutong indicates that it is difficult to have big trend opportunities in the short-term market: "The current background of China stock market is still reform and transformation, and the structure is still the focus of the market. Finding those areas and individual stock opportunities that are in line with the direction of economic transformation will become the key to investment. "
The HSBC Small and Medium-sized Fund also said that under the dual tasks of steady growth and structural adjustment, it is difficult for the A-share market to produce a macro-driven market, but some industries supported by policies and industries related to people's livelihood will have a greater chance to judge that the market will continue the structural market of 20 13.
It should be pointed out that the superposition of short-term risk factors makes the collective decline of growth stocks unsustainable, and the differentiation within the plate is becoming increasingly obvious. The fund cautiously predicts that this year's structural market will be "atypical".
The ETF fund of small and medium-sized board predicts that the long-term high interest rate will be negative for A shares as a whole, and with the resumption of IPO, the scarcity of GEM will be greatly reduced, and the overall valuation advantage of the board will also face certain regression pressure. The difference of 20 14 market styles will not be as obvious and persistent as last year, and it will be more difficult to predict, so the possibility of frequent conversion between styles cannot be ruled out.
"The stock supply is increasing, and the limited on-site funds will play a game, which will further aggravate the structural market of the stock market. In addition to the large and small disk rotation effect, the stocks in the sector will also differentiate, and only a few truly excellent stocks can stand out. " Dacheng 300 Fund said.
Industry layout article
Harvest Media marches into home appliances, medical care and military industry.
Under the guidance of the above expectations, from the perspective of industry allocation, in the fourth quarter of 20 13, the fund operation was more defensive, shrinking the allocation of the media and electronics industries with high growth in the previous period, and turning to the home appliances, medical care and military industries with safety margins and performance guarantees.
According to astronomical statistics, at the end of the third quarter of last year, the allocation of all funds in the cultural and entertainment industry reached 2965438+ billion yuan, accounting for 2.95438+0% of all fund stock investments; By the end of the fourth quarter, the fund's allocation to the industry had dropped to 8.8 billion yuan, accounting for only 0.70%. In terms of reduction, the fund sold as many as 70% of the entertainment industry stocks, ranking first in the list of reduction in various industries.
Take Jing Shun Domestic Demand and Jing Shun Domestic Demand No.2 as examples. Statistics show that both funds listed Huayi Brothers as the second largest shareholder at the end of the third quarter of last year; But by the end of the fourth quarter, Huayi Brothers had disappeared from the top ten positions of the two funds.
In terms of industry allocation, nearly 18% of the fund assets of the above-mentioned funds were allocated to entertainment industry companies at the end of the third quarter, and the allocation ratio dropped sharply to zero at the end of the fourth quarter. At the same time, the allocation ratio of the two funds to the information industry has also dropped from 39% to 12%.
In fact, in the investment outlook of the fourth quarter of 20 13, the fund mentioned more words such as "reasonable valuation and relatively certain growth", which shows that the fund has turned to a cautious attitude under the market situation that the growth stocks are marching to the end collectively.
In the direction of travel, in the fourth quarter, the Fund focused on increasing the investment proportion of household appliances, pharmaceuticals, food and beverage stocks with stable growth in the medium and long term, and at the same time bought leading stocks in some sub-sectors with high certainty of performance growth.
According to astronomical statistics, the industries in which the fund increased its holdings in the fourth quarter were mainly manufacturing, water conservancy environment and public facilities, electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply, and mining. Although the allocation in specific sub-sectors is not clear, we can get a glimpse of the fund trend through the increase or decrease of holding individual stocks.
Statistics show that at the end of the fourth quarter, the number of funds with heavy positions in Qingdao Haier reached 47, an increase of 1 times compared with the end of the third quarter, and the number of funds with heavy positions in Gree Electric reached 103, an increase of 4 1 only compared with the end of the third quarter; In addition, Sanan Optoelectronics, Changan Automobile and Wanhua Chemical are also in the forefront of the fund's holdings list.
From the fund's point of view, the investment at the beginning of 20 14 may also conform to the above-mentioned change of thinking: it is certain that the opportunities of leading enterprises in traditional industries should be taken into account while paying attention to growth stocks.
When talking about future investment ideas, CCB Optimus Prime said that it would look for investment opportunities from two aspects. First, the improvement of profits, such as consumption upgrading related sectors, will be sustainable in the process of economic restructuring. Among them, leading enterprises have been formed through market competition and have an advantageous position in management, products and marketing, especially in household appliances, medicine, food and beverage, automobiles, information technology and other industries. The second is the expansion of valuation, thematic opportunities such as the reform of military industry and state-owned enterprises, and opportunities for the valuation of cyclical commodity industries brought about by the transformation of supply and demand structure.
Jing Shun Domestic Demand Growth Fund No.2 also shows a more "open" allocation mentality: TMT and medicine will still be the focus of most attention, but it will also pay close attention to other broader investment opportunities, such as the investment value of household appliances, high-speed rail, distribution network and other industries, as well as the investment opportunities brought about by the elimination of backward production capacity.
Position control article
The radical attitude was restrained.
Subsequent operations are more flexible.
Also based on the cautious investment mentality, the fund's previous aggressive attitude has converged, and the overall position has declined at the end of the fourth quarter of last year. A number of funds said that 20 14 kept their positions at a moderate level, and combined with risk control objectives, maintained the flexibility of fund positions.
Haitong Securities has made statistics on the changes of mixed open-base positions of active stocks, and about 58.26% of the fund positions have shrunk compared with the previous period. Assuming that the fund's shareholding is fixed, the passive increase or decrease of positions is calculated according to the fluctuation of the CSI 800 index, and then the judgment is based on the active increase or decrease of positions. At the end of the fourth quarter of last year, about 5 1.70% of equity funds actively reduced their positions, and about 59.30% of hybrid funds actively reduced their positions.
From the change of position distribution, the center of gravity of open-ended base positions of mixed stocks shifted to the low end as a whole, and the number of high-position funds decreased by 3 1.58%. The number of low-position funds is the same as that of the previous period, and the number of other positions has increased to varying degrees, among which the number of middle and low-position funds has increased the most, reaching 29.09%.
From the perspective of fund management companies, the top five fund management companies with the highest stock positions (weighted average, including mixed stock base excluding index fund, QDII, partial debt mixed type and life cycle mixed type) at the end of the fourth quarter of 20 13 are Changan 94.72%, Puyin AXA 92.00%, Everbright Prudential 89.68% and Changxin 88.2/kloc-respectively.
The top five fund management companies with the lowest stock positions (weighted average) are Anxin 5 1.28%, Guo Jin GM 56.80%, China Shipping 64.37%, Caitong 67.87% and Changsheng 68.56%, among which Caitong and Changsheng are the top five new light positions in this period.
According to the fund's views on future investment in the fourth quarterly report, in 20 14 years, the fund may inherit this convergent attitude and become more flexible in position control to resist possible risks.
"We will combine the risk control objectives to control the stock positions at a moderate level and maintain the flexibility of the fund positions." Shi Sheng Growth Fund, a Chinese businessman, said: "At the same time, we still actively adhere to the stock selection strategy, pay attention to industries and listed companies that are in line with the direction of China's economic transformation and can maintain relatively stable performance growth, and pay special attention to investment opportunities in mass consumption areas such as information consumption represented by tourism, energy conservation and environmental protection, and mobile Internet."
Golden Eagle Small and Medium-sized Fund also said that it will continue to hold high-quality growth stocks representing the future direction of economic and social transformation. If the performance of growth stocks fails to meet expectations after a sharp rise, the overall position will be reduced and the investment strategy will turn to defense.
"In terms of configuration, we think the market is still relatively weak. In terms of stocks, we will focus on finding some industries and stocks with strong performance, looking for more bargain-hunting opportunities, and maintaining appropriate positions and flexibility in allocation. " HSBC Jintrust said.
Individual stock selection
Choose growth stocks with a more demanding eye.
Corresponding to the sector adjustment, in terms of the selection of individual stocks, the awkward stocks held by the fund in the fourth quarter of last year also showed changes in attitudes towards different sectors of growth stocks and leading enterprises in traditional industries. In this year's investment, the fund will be more picky about the choice of growth stocks.
Statistics show that Huayi Brothers, the leading media stock, which rose by more than 400% in the first three quarters of 20 13, was the first to bear the brunt of the fund selling in the fourth quarter. Judging from the current fund shareholding list of Huayi Brothers, only four funds are "sticking to it", holding a market value of1.1.80 billion yuan and reducing their holdings by more than 6 billion yuan.
In addition, Zhihu, Light Media, Blue Cursor, Borui Communication and other media "star stocks" which achieved great success in the past year also suffered different degrees of fund reduction in the fourth quarter. The above six media stocks were excluded from the Fund 130 sample stocks.
It should be pointed out that among the stocks held by the Fund, the characteristics of small market value and high valuation are still significant. Except Yili, Dahua and Blue Cursor, the market value of other stocks is around 10 billion; In terms of valuation, except Yili and Pathfinder, other stocks are valued at more than 30 times, which reflects the characteristics of high-valued small and medium-sized stocks.
In addition, the industries in which funds hold stocks are not concentrated, covering machinery, food, information, electronics and wholesale and retail. However, a careful analysis of individual stocks shows that even in traditional industries, fund ownership will have its own unique hot spots, such as photovoltaic power plants powered by sunlight, intelligent medical care of Weining software, LNG concept installed by Furuite, and medical informationization of Hejia shares.
Comparing the data of the third quarter of 20 13, among the stocks held by the top ten funds, Weining Software, Sunshine Power Supply, Furuite Equipment, Hejia Shares, Montfarley and Pathfinder were newly added.
In absolute and relative terms, the stocks increased by the fund are mainly stocks in the household appliances and pharmaceutical industries, as well as stocks in the automobile, machinery, new energy and other industries.
In absolute terms, the stocks with the largest holdings are Qingdao Haier, Gree Electric, Changan Automobile, Sanan Optoelectronics, Wanhua Chemical, etc. In terms of shareholding ratio, Olkin, Hanlan Environment, Jiuzhoutong, Guangzhou Automobile Group and Xintian Technology hold more shares.
According to the statistics of Haitong Securities, in the fourth quarter of last year, six of the top 20 warehouses were replaced, and home appliance stocks became the new main force: compared with the end of the third quarter of 20 13, the new stocks in the top 20 warehouses included Qingdao Haier, Midea Group, Changan Automobile, Wanhua Chemical, Sanan Optoelectronics and Jerry's shares, most of which were home appliance stocks; The top 20 heavyweights are Industrial Bank, Minsheng Bank, Zhihu, Huayi Brothers, Great Wall Motor, Guodian Nanrui, cultural media, medium and large blue chips, especially banking stocks.
In fact, for some growth stocks that rose too high in the previous period, many funds have revealed the potential risks of both valuation and performance in the fourth quarter of last year. Therefore, the fund also emphasized the margin of safety when selecting individual stocks.
Xingquan Global Vision Fund admits that the income expectation of 20 14 should be lowered. "Our big idea is: First, control the downside risks by holding positions; Second, consumption is the main structure, and we must choose growth stocks with a more critical eye. "