Strong solar storm 20 12 will strike again.
20 12 at midnight on September 22nd, a colorful light curtain will cover Manhattan, new york, USA. In southern areas like new york, few people can see this extremely fascinating aurora phenomenon. However, people's mood of enjoying the beautiful scenery will not last long. After a few seconds, all the light bulbs in the area began to dim and flicker, and then the light suddenly increased in an instant, and the light bulbs became extremely bright. Then, all the lights went out. In 90 seconds, the whole eastern United States will be blacked out. In a year's time, millions of Americans will begin to die, and the national infrastructure will be in ruins. The World Bank will announce that the United States has become a developing country. At the same time, Europe, China, Japan and other regions or countries are also struggling in this disaster like the United States. This disaster comes from a violent solar storm, which happened on the surface of the sun 65.438+0.5 billion kilometers away from us.
The above story may sound absurd. Under normal circumstances, the sun will not cause such a huge disaster to the earth. However, in a special report released on June 5438+ 10, 2009, the National Academy of Sciences claimed that such a disaster was entirely possible. The research report was funded by NASA. In the past few decades, while human society has developed, it has also laid the groundwork for its own destruction. The modern lifestyle relies too much on all kinds of technology, which inadvertently makes us face a super danger. The plasma emitted from the surface of the sun may destroy our power grid, which will have disastrous consequences. Daniel Becker, the drafter of the special report of the American Academy of Sciences and a space climate expert at the University of Colorado, believes that "we are getting closer and closer to this possible disaster. If humans are not prepared enough for the possible solar storm, this space storm may cut off the power supply, cell phone signals and even water supply system of human society. "
However, some experts have expressed different views that the impact of solar storms is mainly concentrated in outer space, and living on the earth will not be too obviously disturbed by the blocking effect of the earth's magnetic field and atmosphere. Experts say that when the solar storm is active, sunspots are constantly burning and erupting. During this period, a large amount of ultraviolet rays released will suddenly increase the ionosphere concentration over the earth and absorb short-wave energy, thus causing interference to short-wave radio signals. The mobile phones used in people's daily life, including some radios, do not spread signals through the ionosphere, so the general solar storm will not have much impact on the communication on the earth's surface. Theoretically, the general intensity of solar storms is not enough to break through the protection of the earth's atmosphere and magnetic field, posing a fatal threat to the existing species on the earth. But for the solar storm of 20 12, experts worry that it may become an exception.
It may bring great disaster to the earth.
American scientists have warned that the strong solar storm in 20 12 years will bring great disasters to the earth and human beings, and its influence will permeate all aspects of modern society. According to experts who warned, the impact of solar storms on the earth may be "domino-like". Imagine that when the power grid becomes fragile and unstable, industries closely related to power supply will also become victims: refrigeration equipment stops running, and a large number of foods and medicines in the cold storage lose storage conditions and deteriorate; The water pump suddenly stopped running, and the drinking water of the residents in the community became a problem. In addition, due to the interruption of satellite signal, GPS positioning system will become waste. In fact, a similar incident happened as early as 1859, when the sun broke out and the telegraph line burned down. Of course, there are wired and wireless facilities everywhere on the earth now, but these facilities are hard to stand the test of solar storms.
When a strong solar storm strikes, human beings on earth will mainly face two major problems. First of all, it is about modern power network. Modern power grid usually covers a wider area and has higher voltage, which can make the power grid run more efficiently and minimize the loss in power transmission and the waste of electric energy caused by overproduction. However, at the same time, it has become more vulnerable to space climate attacks. The transmission network will become very fragile and unstable, and may even lead to complete shutdown. This is only the first step of the domino effect, and it may also lead to "traffic paralysis, communication interruption, financial collapse and public facilities chaos;" The pump stopped running, causing the interruption of drinking water supply; Without refrigeration equipment, it is difficult to effectively preserve food and medicine. Scientists predict that when a severe strong solar storm occurs, it may cause great social and economic losses to mankind. The loss in the first year alone may reach 1 trillion to 2 trillion dollars, and it will take at least 4 to 10 years to recover and rebuild.
The second question is about other systems that are interdependent with the power grid and support our modern life, such as sewage treatment, supermarket logistics infrastructure, power station control, financial market and so on. If we combine the two issues into one, we can clearly see that the repeated occurrence of solar storm events in carrington may cause great disasters rarely seen in history. John Kapiman, a special report consultant of the American Academy of Sciences and an expert in power industry analysis, believes that "this kind of disaster is completely opposite to what we usually think. Usually underdeveloped areas are fragile, but in this kind of disaster, the more developed areas are more vulnerable. "
Man is not ready for disaster.
In the face of possible serious disasters, the United States and even the whole mankind are not fully prepared for the next round of solar storms. Becker said that because the possibility of a large-scale solar storm is very small, "the whole society simply doesn't consider this and only cares about the immediate things." For the weather on earth, meteorologists can track a storm for several days in a row and issue enough warnings to local residents accordingly, while solar storms or space climate are completely different. Baker said, "At present, we can't accurately predict the time and intensity of solar storms in advance. What my colleagues and I can predict is that once a large solar storm strikes, we can't cope at all. "
Similar to the early prediction of catastrophic hurricanes on the earth, human beings mainly rely on the prediction of sunspot cycles to monitor the intensity of solar storms and their possible impact on the earth. The sunspot cycle refers to the process of increasing and decreasing the number of sunspots every 1 1 year. This period is calculated from the lowest point of sunspot activity. During the active period, the number of sunspots increases, leading to more solar storms. When a solar storm occurs, the sun releases a large number of high-speed particle streams and plasma streams formed by charged particles, which affect the state of the earth's magnetosphere, ionosphere and neutral atmosphere. In view of the harm of solar storms, people have been monitoring the activities of sunspots for more than a century.
Scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in the United States have developed a new solar dynamic model based on the phenomena under the surface of the sun and the sunspot cycle data obtained in the past. With the help of the new model, astronomers can provide early predictions about sunspot activity. They hope that early forecasting can help power companies, satellite operators and others prepare for sunspot activities days or even years in advance. It is understood that the accuracy of this new model can reach 98%. Richard Banenko, from the Upper Atmosphere Research Department of the National Science Foundation of the United States, said, "If solar storm activities can be predicted in advance, people can better cope with communication disruptions, satellite failures, power outages and threats to astronauts."