1in June, 867, Zhao Liewen predicted that within 50 years, the Qing dynasty would perish. Forty-four years later, the Qing Dynasty really fell, and the chaos that followed was also what Zhao Liewen said: teasing must first defeat the servants, and the state government in the rear has no owner, and the people are in charge. Judging from the existing literature, Zhao Liewen may be the first person to make this prediction accurately.
After dark on June 20, the sixth year of Tongzhi, Zeng Guofan went to Zhao Liewen to chat and said with great anxiety: People in Beijing said that the weather in Yundumen (the capital) was very bad, and cases of holding wars with naked flames occurred from time to time. Beggars flocked to the market, and even women were naked without wearing pants. The people are poor and rich, and they are afraid of change. What can we do? Zhao Liewen replied: Disturbing world public order and long-term reunification will inevitably lead to division (which will inevitably lead to separatism). However, the main prestige is heavy and the atmosphere is not open. If it is not a bad heart (referring to the central collapse first), the collapse will not succeed. In terms of the intensity (claimed by Zhao Liewen), the future disaster must first fundamentally disrupt the servants, while the rear states (referring to the provinces) have no masters, and the people manage their own affairs (local separatism), which will end in almost 50 years. land
After listening to Zhao Liewen's earth-shattering words, Zeng Guofan immediately frowned and pondered for a long time before saying: If you are funny, why move south? Obviously, he did not fully agree with Zhao Liewen's view that the Qing Dynasty could not be overthrown completely. At most, the regime moved south and the north and the south were divided, which occurred many times in China's history, constantly teasing half the country. In this regard, Zhao Liewen clearly replied: Lu Chen (referring to the subjugation of the country) may not save energy during the Jin and Song Dynasties. He believes that after the Qing government moved south, it could not survive for more than a hundred years like the Eastern Jin Dynasty and the Southern Song Dynasty, and it would be completely extinct.
Although Zhao Liewen answered firmly, Zeng Guofan still couldn't fully agree with his statement that teasing the monarch was a virtue or not. Zhao Liewen immediately replied: It is good to tease the monarch, but it is not too bad to be rewarded for the prosperity of the country. At the beginning of the country, it was too easy to start a business, the slaughter was too heavy, and there were people in the world. What a coincidence. Heaven is hard to know, good and evil are not concealed, and the virtue of the first monarch is insufficient. land
Zhao Liewen's answer actually denied the moral legitimacy of the Qing Dynasty. After the demise of the Ming Dynasty, the Qing army entered the customs because Wu Sangui rushed to the crown and opened the city gate in a rage, so it was too easy to tease entrepreneurs and make the world too clever; After entering the customs, they killed people to scare the Han people, such as teasing Yangzhou and Jiading three slaughterhouses for ten days, so it is too important to tease them. The contingency and brutality of the Qing dynasty's rule over the world determined that its rule lacked moral legitimacy. Although the kings after the Qing Dynasty really teased the monarch morally, good and evil could not cover up each other and make up for each other. What's more, teasing heaven and earth has given Qing a very rich return, bringing them a bustling place where they can tease health and do things far ahead of others. Therefore, the teasing virtue of these later kings can neither offset the inhumanity when the Qing Dynasty was founded, nor become the inexhaustible political foundation and natural dependence of successors, nor can it make up for the serious lack of legitimacy of their rule.
Zhao Liewen said so, Zeng Guofan really realized the seriousness of the problem, and had a presentiment that the Qing Dynasty was facing extinction. Instead of continuing to refute, he expressed his acquiescence after a long silence. He said helplessly: I hope to die day and night (I hope to die early), and I am worried about the collapse of Zongyou (referring to the imperial court). Your generation should not think this is a joke. land
Zhao Liewen comforted Zeng Guofan and said, "Teasing is like being a teacher. Although you are good at teasing, you should not play games. " . However, life and death are predestined and cannot be expected. The happiness of death is almost the same as the happiness of life. And the teacher should also be planning for the adherents. One day, teachers can delay people for one day, which is too big, but they are indifferent (indifferent). land
History unexpectedly and accurately realized Zhao Liewen's prediction.
Finally, Zeng Guofan was completely disillusioned with the Qing Dynasty, or Zeng Guofan no longer had any luck with the outcome predicted by Zhao Liewen. That was after Zeng Guofan visited and investigated all the way north and had extensive contact with the top of the Qing Dynasty.
In the seventh year of Tongzhi (1868), Zeng Guofan was appointed as the governor of Zhili. After he took office in the north, he finally met the Empress Dowager Cixi, Emperor Tongzhi, Prince Gong, Wen Xiang, Baodi and other military and political ministers for the first time. He was summoned by the emperor and the Empress Dowager several times in a few days and attended state banquets several times. At a banquet held in Gan Qing Palace, Zeng Guofan ranked first among the ministers of the Han nationality as a university student in Wuyingdian, and enjoyed the highest honor of the Qing court, as opposed to the Manchu university student Woren. In this regard, he is of course honored.
The positions of zhili governor and cabinet university not only gave him the opportunity to face-to-face contact and observe several top leaders of the Qing dynasty, but also enabled him to have a further understanding of the core figures of the Qing government and the national situation through observation, conversation and participation in the Supreme State Conference. At this time, he had to admit that the Qing dynasty was doomed, the decline of the country far exceeded his original expectations, and no one in North Korea could turn the tide. All this, as predicted by Zhao Liewen long ago, the whole Qing Dynasty is like a broken ship, which can only be seen sinking day by day, and there is no hope of rising.
On May 28th, the eighth year of Tongzhi (1869), Zeng Guofan said to Zhao Liewen, who was transferred to Zhili as an official and came to the governor's office in Baoding on the first day: It is extremely bad to tease the customs of official management, but the official has no promise ... There is nothing I can do about it! land
Zeng Guofan also commented on the core figures of the dynasty one by one: it is normal to ridicule the two palaces (Cixi and Empress Dowager Ci 'an), and there is nothing to say when they meet (not to the point); The emperor's silence (indifference to peace) is unpredictable (can't see the depth). ..... Gong Di (Prince Gong) is extremely clever, but he can't stand (stand) when hanging around; Wen Baichuan (Wen Xiang) is decent and narrow-minded and doesn't know how to ask for help. Bao Peiheng (Bao Ji) is dissatisfied with the population (no prestige); There is a maverick in North Korea who is still pushing Japan to the top, but he lacks knowledge. I am mediocre, and my ears are not at ease! land
Zeng Guofan also talked about diplomacy: after he arrived in Beijing, he held a meeting to discuss signing a peace treaty with foreign countries (attended the meeting to discuss signing a peace treaty with foreign countries), and the Alcohol House (Yi Xuan, Prince of Alcohol Affairs) intended to fight the main battle, which was once submitted to the Cabinet for reconsideration. At present, I have to compromise for perfection, and I have to defend myself secretly. However, China and foreign countries are so poor and embarrassed ... Can they stand on their own feet? This year's peace treaty can be reached and will not break down, but it is difficult to know (opportunities or special circumstances) and there will be no worries! land
In front of Zhao Liewen, Zeng Guofan confessed his disappointment with the current situation and state affairs. On the other hand, he analyzed and evaluated the characters, knowledge, ability, advantages and disadvantages of Empress Dowager Cixi, Empress Ci 'an, Prince Gong, Wen Xiang, Bao Yan and Woren, the supreme rulers of the Qing Dynasty, and finally came to the conclusion that none of them was responsible for the revival of the dynasty. Even so, others can't count on it, so in the end, he had to agree with Zhao Liewen's judgment made more than a year ago: the Qing Dynasty was terminally ill and hopeless.
The decadent Qing Dynasty collapsed in 19 1 1 year, and Zhao Liewen's prediction came true. Zeng Guofan and Zhao Liewen died in 1872 and 1893 respectively. For them, this may be a relief and luck.