Supply and demand situation, inventory, demand structure and its changing trend
1, the historical output, consumption and inventory of corn in China.
China is the second largest corn producer in the world, accounting for about 20% of the world's total output. Since the output of corn in China decreased obviously in stages from 2000 to 2003, and the demand has been increasing steadily since 1985, the situation of corn supply and demand in China has turned for the better since 2000, and the annual shortage of corn requires continuous consumption of inventory, and the inventory consumption ratio has dropped from 85% in 2000 to 20% in 2006.
Although with the support of national policies, corn production has recovered from 2004, it is still a question whether the future output can keep up with the rigid growth of demand. What is certain is that the long-term sufficient supply and demand of corn in China before 2000 will never return, and the problem of corn yield will affect the market from time to time.
The data in the picture below comes from the United States Department of Agriculture. According to the latest domestic forecast data, China's corn output in 2006 was 65438 0.42 million tons, an increase of 2.63 million tons over the previous year, with an increase of 65438 0.9%. The demand for corn is expected to increase by 3.5%, reaching 1.45438+0.5 billion tons. In 2006, the total supply and total consumption of corn in China will keep increasing synchronously, the supply will be slightly greater than the demand, and the inventory will increase slightly, but it will remain at a low level.
China corn production and sales inventory map over the years (Source: Sinosteel Futures)
2. Corn consumption structure and its changing trend in China.
In China's corn consumption structure, feed consumption has occupied an absolute share since1980s, and its proportion reached a peak of 76.5 1% in 2000. Subsequently, due to the rapid development of corn deep processing, the proportion of feed consumption began to decline gradually, and it is expected to account for 73% of the total consumption in 2006, but the absolute amount of feed consumption is still growing slowly, and the consumption in 2000 was.
In recent years, China's corn deep processing industry has developed rapidly. In 200 1 year, the consumption of corn industry (including starch consumption and alcohol consumption) was only130,000 tons, and reached 28 million tons in 2005, accounting for 20% of the total domestic consumption. The consumption growth rate of corn industry is amazing, especially the consumption demand of starch. 200 1, the consumption of starch on corn is only 728. It is estimated that the consumption of corn industry in China will reach 35.2 million tons in 2006, with an annual growth rate of 25.7%. With the continuous production of corn deep processing projects under construction all over the country, it is estimated that the processing capacity of China's corn industry is expected to exceed 50 million tons by 20 10. It can also be seen intuitively from the following figure that the industrial consumption of corn, especially the consumption of starch, is accelerating, and the amount of corn consumed by starch will be the main growth point of corn consumption in China in the future.
Changes of Corn Consumption Structure in China
Four, the second half of the corn price influencing factors analysis
(1) international market
1, the third consecutive year of high returns and seasonal supply pressure.
Change chart of world output and output per unit area over the years
First of all, it should be pointed out that from the previous analysis, we have come to the conclusion that the global corn supply and demand situation is still tight in 2006, although it is expected that corn will have a high yield for the third consecutive year.
However, with the global listing of new corn, the seasonal pressure of high yield can not be ignored. The increase of corn price in the first half of this year stimulated the increase of global corn planting area; In the growing period, the good weather in China and the United States determines the high yield level of corn. According to the monthly report of the US Department of Agriculture in August, it is estimated that the US corn output this year will be 282.3 million tons, and the global corn output will be 690.8 million tons, the third highest level in history. The huge supply pressure on corn prices after the new crops are listed is obvious. However, it is precisely because of the accelerated growth of corn demand in recent years that it has brought long-term benefits to corn prices. Therefore, the short-term listing of new grain to suppress prices is probably the best time to buy on dips.
2. In the medium and long term, alcohol consumption in the United States will continue to promote corn consumption.
At present, there are 97 alcohol production plants in the United States with a total production capacity of 450 million gallons. According to relevant records, another 365,438+0 alcohol production plants are under construction. Of the existing 97, at least 65,438+02 are expanding their production capacity. The renewable fuel standard in the American Energy Law requires that the consumption of alcohol reach 4 billion gallons in 2006, and in 2005, the consumption of alcohol has reached this figure. In addition, about 25 alcohol production plants will be put into operation in 2006, and the energy supply of alcohol in the United States will increase by 500 million gallons during this year. By the end of 2006, the production capacity of American alcohol industry will increase by about 30%, and the output will reach 5 billion gallons. Although the rapid growth of alcohol consumption corn in the United States can not endanger the current supply and inventory level of corn, high yield again this year will also delay the supply crisis; However, after the release of supply pressure in the second half of the year, the increase in demand will play a decisive role in promoting corn prices.