The Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee decided to fully implement the policy that a couple can have two children.
In 1970s, in order to control the excessive population growth and ease the tension among population, economy, society, resources and environment, China began to implement family planning in an all-round way. 1982 In September, the Twelfth National Congress of the Communist Party of China decided to implement family planning as a basic national policy, and it was written into the newly revised Constitution 1 1 in June of the same year.
After more than 30 years, China's population development has undergone a major turning point. The growth momentum of the total population has obviously weakened, and the degree of aging has deepened.
20 13, 1 1 The Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee deliberated and adopted the "Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Several Major Issues of Comprehensively Deepening Reform", proposing to adhere to the basic national policy of family planning and start the implementation of the policy that couples with one only child can have two children.
In an interview with the Beijing News reporter, many experts believe that the full liberalization of the two children will not bring about a sharp rise in the birth rate and a sharp rebound in the population. At the same time, the policy can only alleviate problems such as social aging, and it is expected that it will not appear until 2026 at the earliest.
Focus 1
Will the birth rate increase greatly?
Will not lead to a soaring birth rate; The baby boom may occur on 20 17.
Liang Jianzhang, a population expert and founder of Ctrip.com, told the Beijing News that due to the cumulative effect, the number of births will rebound in the first few years after the full liberalization of childbearing, but the extent is limited.
He believes that according to the loosest estimate, the number of births with the highest rebound is much lower than that in the early 1990s.
In China, the policy of "two children alone" is implemented. The government predicted that China would increase its population by about 2 million every year due to this policy. However, Liang Jianzhang once estimated that when the national policy was introduced for an average of one year, the number of applicants nationwide was only 654.38+0.054 million, and the number of new births would be much lower than 654.38+0.054 million. This is far below official expectations.
For example, Henan, a populous province in China, officially implemented the "two children alone" policy in early June last year. As of 3 1 May this year, Henan Province has accepted 47,000 applications for the birth of two children alone, giving birth to10.3 million people. In Zhejiang, more than 60,000 people were actually born in 20 14/kloc-0, far below the expected 80,000 people.
Chen Youhua, a sociology professor at Nanjing University, believes that "having two children alone is a good experiment, which proves that people's fertility enthusiasm is not high. Therefore, even after the implementation of the comprehensive two-child, the population growth will never get out of control. "
Yao, a population expert and deputy director of the Census Center of Fujian Provincial Bureau of Statistics, also believes that letting go of the "two children" will not lead to a sharp rise in the birth rate and a sharp rebound in the population, because social transformation has a greater impact on the restriction of fertility. From agricultural society to industrial society, the decline of fertility rate is an inevitable trend.
Liang Jianzhang said that from the actual effect of the implementation of the "two children alone" policy for more than a year, hundreds of thousands of newborns are added every year. According to estimates, there may be 50 million to 60 million women of childbearing age aged 20 to 40 who meet the policy in China. Affected by the comprehensive two-child policy, it is estimated that the average number of new children will be around 2.5 million in the future.
Huang, an American demographer and Ph.D. in biostatistics at Hopkins University, said in an interview with the media that "comprehensive two children" brings an increase of 3-8 million people every year, with an estimated median of 5 million, and the birth peak may appear in 20 17 years.
Chen Youhua, a sociology professor at Nanjing University, believes that the new population brought by the implementation of the policy will not exceed 6 million per year, while the total number of people born in China will not exceed 24 million.
Some experts have also put forward different data on the number of people affected after the release of the "comprehensive two-child". Earlier, Yuan Xin, a professor at the Institute of Population and Development of Nankai University, said in an interview with the media that there are nearly 1 100 million couples in China who meet the conditions for reproduction.
On the other hand, Liang Jianzhang thinks that there may be 50-60 million women of childbearing age aged 20-40 in China who meet the policy. Previously, about100000 women of childbearing age in China benefited from the "two children alone" policy.
Liang Jianzhang said that the fertility rate in China has been the lowest in the world for a long time. According to China's sex ratio and female survival rate, each couple needs to have at least 2.2 children to maintain the sustainable reproduction of the population. At the same time, from 20 14 to 2024, the number of fertile women aged 23-28 in China will drop from 73.87 million to 4 1 1600.
Focus 2
Can we slow down the trend of aging?
It can alleviate population aging and improve labor supply, but it will not change the trend.
Previously, many scholars suggested that the biggest challenge of population change in China is rapid aging. At the same time, the characteristics of "getting old before getting rich" are obvious. This will seriously affect the future economic development and social innovation ability.
Recently, Zhang Chewei, director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics of China Academy of Social Sciences, listed a set of data in his column: in 20 15, the population aged 60 and over in China was 222 million, accounting for16.16% of the total population; 256 million in 2020, accounting for18.28%; 372 million in 2030, accounting for 26.39%; In 2040, it was 44 1 billion, accounting for 32.11%; 492 million in 2050, accounting for 37.88%.
Zhang Chewei believes that liberalizing the birth of two children will not change the basic population situation, but it will help alleviate the aging population and improve the future labor supply. Even if the two-child policy is fully liberalized immediately, the situation of aging population and declining working-age population in China will not fundamentally change. However, if the adjustment policy can bring about a certain increase in the fertility level and the number of births, it will help improve the population structure and promote the long-term balanced development of the population.
Jiang Weiping told the Beijing News reporter that the comprehensive two-child policy will not bring obvious changes to the population situation in the near future. In the next 10 to 15 years, the impact of this policy will gradually become clear.
Chen Youhua believes that the policy adjustment will make more families have two children and the number of births will increase. But it can only slow down the aging process and will not change this trend.
Focus 3
How long will it take for the policy to land?
It should refer to the implementation process of the "two children alone" policy, first of all, we must amend the law.
Jiang Weiping, director of the China Population and Development Research Center under the National Health and Family Planning Commission, told the Beijing News that the full implementation of this policy will be finalized only after the local people's congresses revise local laws.
Jiang Weiping told reporters that the full liberalization of the implementation of the two-child policy should refer to the implementation process of the "two children alone" policy. He stressed that there is a process of amending the law first.
20 13, 1 1 The Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee decided to start the implementation of the "two children alone" policy. In February 65438, the State Council submitted the Suggestions on Adjusting and Perfecting the Fertility Policy to the National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC). At the end of February, the National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) adopted the Opinions on Adjusting and Perfecting the Fertility Policy issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council.
The "Opinions" clarified the implementation plan of "two children alone" in various places. First, the provincial government shall formulate the implementation plan, and then report it to the competent department of the State Council for the record. After that, the provincial people's congress or its standing Committee revised local regulations.
Jiang Weiping said that after China officially launched the "two children alone" policy, many places revised the family planning regulations accordingly. This has led to the lag in the implementation of local policies. For example, on 20 14 and 1, Zhejiang, Anhui and Jiangxi took the lead in launching the "two children alone" policy, which was implemented in most provinces from March to June and fully implemented in September.
Before the implementation of the policy, the treatment of "robbing people" was different from place to place.
According to media statistics, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Tianjin, Beijing and other 17 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions clearly stipulate that it is illegal to "rob" two children alone before the implementation of the policy, and fines still need to be imposed according to regulations. However, Anhui's policy is more flexible. If two children are born during the policy transition period, that is, between1October 201312 and1October 20 14 65438+23, when Anhui revises the family planning regulations, single families only need to reissue birth certificates as required.
In this regard, the National Health and Family Planning Commission once said in its reply that after the announcement of the decision of the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, before the decision of the Standing Committee of the Provincial People's Congress to implement the policy of two children alone or the revision and promulgation of local laws and regulations, if a single couple gives birth to a second child illegally, criticism and education should be given priority to, and no substantive treatment should be made in principle.
Focus 4
Can social resources cope?
The supply of public services such as maternal and child health care and kindergartens will be strengthened.
After the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy, can the existing hospital beds and kindergartens in China cope?
In an interview with the Beijing News reporter, many experts said that at present, China's social resources are sufficient to cope with the fertility situation after policy adjustment, so there is no need to worry about this issue.
Chen Youhua, a sociology professor at Nanjing University, said that China had a history of increasing its population by more than 29 million per year. After the full liberalization of the two children, millions more newborns will be born every year, which will not lead to hospital tension and school tension. At present, the phenomenon of insufficient kindergartens and delivery rooms is unreasonable resource allocation. For example, everyone is crowded into first-tier cities.
However, Lu Jiehua, a population expert and professor of sociology in Peking University, said that big cities such as Beishangguang have corresponding population control targets at present, and there is no big problem in the number of delivery rooms and beds for children. But the high-quality medical resources in megacities will become very scarce.
Yesterday, Li Bin, director of the National Health Planning Commission, said that the next step is to revise and improve relevant laws and regulations and do a good job in policy convergence. It is necessary to strengthen the supply of public services such as reproductive health, maternal and child health care and child care institutions.
Ma Li, a population expert and counselor of the State Council, also said that hospitals in all provinces are actively taking measures to undertake the coming baby boom, and many places are actively preparing beds and various resources.
At the same time, due to the rising cost of raising children and the change of fertility concept, the general fertility will decline. In this regard, many experts call on the government to take various measures to encourage the birth of a second child.
Ma Li believes that the government should formulate encouraging policies, for example, the original nine-year compulsory education can be adjusted to 12 years, because the desire to have children in society is not very strong at present. The decline of education cost greatly reduces the cost of raising children, and the compulsory education of 12 further improves the quality of children, which also determines the labor productivity and the economic and social development of the country.