★ According to the latest calculation data of the National Bureau of Statistics, by June 6, 2005, the total population of Chinese mainland (excluding Hongkong, Macao Special Administrative Region and Taiwan Province Province) will reach 654.38+0.3 billion. The delayed arrival of China's 654.38+03 billion population day shows that China has made great achievements in population and family planning.
★ The peak population of China will reach 654.38+06 billion? Zhang Yi, a researcher at the Institute of Population and Labor Economics of China Academy of Social Sciences, wrote in Beijing Daily-Theory Weekly that this view is an ignorant assumption about the new national conditions of China's population and lacks practical basis, which is likely to cause unnecessary "panic" at home and abroad and unilaterally exaggerate China's energy demand and food consumption. In fact, due to the unremitting efforts of the China Municipal Government, the population growth of China has shown many new features since the late 20th century, and the total population of China cannot grow to 654.38+0.6 billion in the future.
After 65.438+300 million people's day, there are five new characteristics of China's population.
First, the total population of China cannot grow to16 billion in the future, but should be around145 billion. This is the biggest feature of China population after 65.438+0.3 billion population day. In 2004, the birth rate in China was 12.29‰, but due to aging, the death rate increased slightly (6.42‰), with a net increase of population of 76 1 10,000 last year. If the degree of urbanization continues to accelerate, if the number of migrant workers in cities continues to increase in the future, and if the current family planning policy in China continues to be implemented, the annual net population increase in China will continue to decrease in the process of further decreasing the birth rate. Affected by this, China's future population peak will appear earlier, and it will be profitable in the middle and late 1920s-but the total population may not be 65.438+600 million as the media usually say, but it should be between 65.438+0.430 billion and 65.438+0.450 billion.
Secondly, the population of China has already completed the transformation. At present, the population of China has changed from a high birth rate, high natural growth rate and low mortality rate to a low natural growth rate, low birth rate and low mortality rate. This model has been maintained for more than ten years now and is basically stable. This was achieved by the government and people of China after decades of unremitting hard work. It is these efforts that have effectively reduced the population pressure in China and the world and delayed World Population Day by at least four years.
Third, the "demographic dividend" will last until 2020. At present, the bottom of China's population pyramid is obviously shrinking, and the proportion of the labor force aged 15 ~ 64 has risen to about 70% of the total population. In the next 15 years, the proportion of the labor force will be around 70%. This is the golden age for China to collect the "demographic dividend". In the meantime, as long as China properly solves the employment problem, gradually improves the quality of the population, increases the human capital of the population and improves the social security system, China will be more capable of coping after 2020.
Fourth, the average age of the workforce will gradually increase. Now, in terms of the total amount, China is coming out of the most severe employment dilemma, and the newly-added labor force will continue to decline in the future until after 20 15, that is, the labor force population will experience negative growth. Affected by the annual expansion of higher education, the number of young and strong laborers will continue to decrease, and the employment pressure and competition of college students will become more and more fierce. In the next few years, the number of college graduates will increase rapidly to about 4 million to 5 million each year. The shortage of low-end employed people (such as nannies and migrant workers) and the unemployment of high-end people will coexist in the labor market.
Fifth, the age of first marriage for women will be further delayed, which will continue to reduce the birth rate. At present, the average age of women's first marriage in China has risen to about 24.45 years old. With the further deepening of market economy, both men and women will pay more attention to vocational education. The longer the education, the older the employment age, the later the marriage age and the lower the birth rate.
★ l, from the perspective of population reproduction, look at the traditional population transformation process.
As we all know, what we generally call demographic transition first refers to the transformation of population reproduction type; This is concerned and expounded by the classic population transition theory. Therefore, to investigate and study the demographic transition in China, we might as well understand the traditional demographic transition process in China. As can be seen from Figure 1, from the combination of crude birth rate, crude death rate and natural population growth rate, if the general population transition started from the decline of crude death rate, then China had such a clue in the early days of the founding of the People's Republic of China. From 1949 to 1957, the crude mortality rate decreased significantly from 20‰. Down to 10.8‰. From 1958 to 1962, the crude death rate fluctuated abnormally, and the crude death rate of 196o reached 25.43‰. But in 196 1 year, it immediately fell back to the normal levels of14.24 ‰ (1961) and 10.02‰( 1962).
Combining the general norms of population transition theory with the specific road taken by China, we can think that the population transition in China in the past 50 years can be roughly divided into two stages: the first stage is the population transition stage dominated by mortality change (1949- 1970). This stage is characterized by the first decline in mortality, while the birth rate is essentially high. The birth rate of 1970 is similar to that in the early days of the People's Republic of China, ranging from 33 ‰ to 35 ‰. The demographic transition in China began as early as the early days of the founding of the People's Republic of China. The first stage was the mortality transition. However, the demographic transition that really curbed population growth should be when the birth rate began to decline-that is, at the end of the 1960s, it entered the second stage of demographic transition around 1970.
The second stage is the demographic transition stage dominated by birth rate (197 till now). The characteristic of this stage is that the mortality rate drops to a low level and keeps a relatively stable trend. Because of the different trends of crude birth rate, as shown in the figure, it can be divided into several development stages: First, the crude birth rate dropped sharply (197 1- 1980), and the birth rate dropped rapidly from 30‰ to 20‰ in the whole 1970s.
The second stage is the slow decline of crude birth rate (198 1- 1990). The remarkable feature of this stage is that the annual birth rate is slightly higher than 20%. The crude mortality rate is stable at 6.6‰.
Thirdly, the birth rate continues to decline slowly at a low level (199 1- 1999). Below 20‰, the birth rate began to decline gradually.
In this way, the whole second stage experienced a rapid decline in the 1970s. With the fluctuation in 1980s and the slow decline in 1990s, the gap between the birth rate and the death rate in China has gradually narrowed, and the demographic transition has gradually been completed.
The demographic transition in China is a very interesting phenomenon, that is, almost every decade is a turning point. The major turning point occurred in the late 1960s. The demographic transition from "opening" to "closing"; The small turning points are 196 1 year (mortality rate) and 197 1 year. These important years are 198 1 and 199 1. The "ten-year transition" is a remarkable feature of China's population transition in recent 50 years.
If we smooth it (as shown in Figure 2), we will find that the demographic transition has gone through two main stages. First, in the flaring stage, the mortality rate first reflects the modernization led by institutional changes, which is also a phenomenon that conforms to the law. At this time, the population growth rate tends to expand and the population expands. Second, in the phase of gradual closure, the mortality rate has dropped to a lower level. In the stable stage, the birth rate has made a strong reflection, the difference between birth rate and death rate is getting smaller and smaller, and the population growth slows down and moves towards zero growth. But obviously, as can be seen from Figure 2, the "growth port" has not been blocked, and it will take some time. This is the future we can foresee.
The trend of natural population growth rate has four stages:
(l) From 1949 to 1970, it experienced a climbing process, and the natural growth rate rose from 15‰ to more than 25‰, which was the growth stage of population transformation. The growth trough from 1958 to 1963 is abnormal and cannot explain the essence of the problem; On the contrary, judging from the socio-economic situation and population situation at that time, high-speed growth was the essential feature. (2) From 1970 to 1980, the population growth began to decline sharply. (3) From 1980 to 1990, the population growth showed obvious fluctuation and rebound. (4) In the past few years, population growth has steadily declined and slowed down. But whether it has been steadily declining since then is something that we can't easily determine at present.
In a word, from the changing trend of birth rate, death rate and natural growth rate, China's population transition has roughly gone through four stages, and it is very cleverly consistent with the cycle of every ten years.
According to the forecast, the demographic transition trend of China in the future is that the natural growth rate will gradually tend to "zero" under the comprehensive effect of the slow decline of the powder birth rate and the slight increase of the crude death rate. Such a "negative" prospect. This can be clearly seen in fig. 4. As shown in the following figure, the demographic transition in China will tend to be completed after the 1930s during the period of 2 1. Judging from the forecast results, the natural growth rate is a monotonically decreasing evolution process. Around 2030 may be a turning point in history. Before that, the population of China was growing, but since then, the population of China has evolved into a shrinking population. This change is far-reaching, and it is a big step for China to achieve the goal of moderate population. According to linford. Liu Jintang predicted that the inertia of population growth will gradually weaken, and the proportion of women of childbearing age in the total population will continue to decline, to 26.7% in 2000, to 24.5% in 2020 and to 2 1.9% in 2040. In this way, the population growth will reach the peak of15190,000 in 2O33.
According to this prospect, China's current task is to achieve a thorough and stable demographic transition, and the key lies in the sustained and steady decline of the birth rate. The black line marks the arrival of "post-demographic transition" in the right direction-if we consider the dual transition of population reproduction and population growth. At best, what we have achieved now is only the change of population reproduction type, and it is an unstable change. The black line on the right also marks the fifth stage of China's demographic transition since the founding of the People's Republic of China, namely, the stage of zero growth and negative growth. At present, the demographic transition we have experienced will be the longest, which is the whole magnificent course of modern demographic transition from entering the threshold (that is, "realization") to going out of the threshold (that is, "completion").
2. Look at the process of population transition from the change of total fertility rate.
Fertility rate is the driving force of population growth. The change of birth rate in China is largely due to the change of birth rate. 1999 The theme of World Population Day is: "Human's choice of bearing determines human's choice of the future". So how has the fertility rate in China changed since the founding of the People's Republic of China? It is undoubtedly an important and unique perspective to look at the process of population transformation from the perspective of total fertility rate. At least, from the perspective of family planning work, the change of fertility rate is the most noteworthy indicator.
As shown in the following figure, the fertility rate in China has undergone a process similar to the transformation of the reproduction type of the whole population. According to the information displayed in the data, we come to the conclusion that:
The period from (l) 1949 to 1969 is the first stage of fertility change. It is called "pre-transformation stage". From the national situation, except for the abnormal fertility reduction and fertility recovery during the Great Leap Forward and the three-year catastrophe, the fertility rate in other years has remained at a high level, which is almost completely consistent with the change of fertility rate. The fertility rate remains at an average of six children.
(2) The period from1969 to 1977 is the second stage of fertility change, and it is a rapid decline stage, which can be called "the initial stage of rapid change". The fertility rate dropped sharply from nearly 6 to below 3. Like the birth rate, it has dropped by almost half.
(3) 1977 to 199 1 is the third stage of fertility change, which can be called "the middle stage of fluctuation change".
The fertility level fluctuates between 2 and 3. Because the social economy and culture at that time were relatively backward, and the means of family planning itself were very limited, when the fertility rate fell to the limit, the external control force and the internal anti-control force constituted a lasting conflict, forming a "seesaw battle" situation. At this stage, our years of efforts have brought the "fertility rate" close to the replacement level. However, because it transcends the cultural boundaries of specific fertility changes, fluctuations are inevitable.
(4) The fertility change in the fourth stage is 199 1 to 1999. Because the change of fertility rate in this period has a relatively stable downward trend and is stable below the replacement level, it can be called "continuous low fertility stage". Compared with the previous stage, its characteristics are that the decline curve is relatively smooth, and the second is that it is continuously lower than the replacement level. The achievements at this stage can be said to be dreams. Hard-won. At present, the total fertility rate has reached and remained at a low level of around 1.8 for many years.
But there seems to be no authoritative statement about the future trend. In fact, there are many data estimates after 1995, and there is no definite statement. However, the difference in estimation is very small, fluctuating around the level of 1.8.
From the perspective of future changes, some "fluctuations" are probably reasonable. However, as long as it remains below the replacement level for a long time, it will not affect our population control within 654.38+04 billion in 2065.438+00, and realize the goal of zero population growth in the first half of the century.
In the last stage, that is, China, it is very important to stabilize the fertility rate below the replacement level for the final completion of the demographic transition. Because, in the period of population inertia growth, the control and transformation of fertility rate determines the change of birth rate, and ultimately affects the change of natural population growth rate.
At present, the population challenges we face include stock and increment. Solving or reducing the increment is to curb and slow down the expansion of population stock. But it has solved the problem of population increment, but it has not really solved the problem of population stock. "Stable low fertility level" obeys the requirement of incremental control in the short term and the requirement of stock reduction in the long term. In this way, it is determined that "stabilizing the low fertility level" is the only correct strategic choice from the population control target designed in combination with the moderate population target. China has gone through a difficult and tortuous road, but after paying the price, we have indeed made an epoch-making contribution to relatively reducing the population pressure.
3. Looking at the process of population transition from the comprehensive perspective of "system-policy-development"
We can also look at the demographic transition from another angle. For example, from 1973, the country began to implement family planning in an all-round way. According to the data of several major years, we can clearly divide it into several stages. This division makes us more clearly see the different historical roles of socialist system, family planning policy and economic and social development. Combined with Figure 1 and Figure 2, we know that the mortality change in the early days of the founding of the People's Republic of China and the birth rate change in the early 1970s are two remarkable changes. But obviously, before the 1970s, the birth rate had a downward trend. After the 1980s, there is not much room for the birth rate to decline, and the further decline is expected to be a slow and gradual process.
From the perspective of demographic transition, the population in the history of China has always been in the traditional or embryonic stage of demographic transition.
After the middle of the 20th century, population growth turned into a transitional stage, which widened the gap between crude birth rate and crude death rate, and the population growth accelerated sharply, leading to the rapid growth of modern population and the population explosion in modern China. During the period of 1950- 1995, the actual average annual growth rate of China population reached 17.3‰, which was 2.5 times that of peacetime in history. Considering the influence of family planning factors since 1970s, we might as well take 1970 as the dividing line to calculate the population growth rate in the two periods after entering modern times: the average annual growth rate is 20.48‰,1971-kloc-0/995. If 197 1- 1995 keeps the high growth rate of 1950- 1970, then the total population of 1995 is138.5 billion, not/. (2) Any country that has experienced the process of demographic transition must have a process of accelerated population growth, so the rapid population expansion in modern China has its objective inevitability. If we don't criticize Ma Yinchu, we can't avoid this historical fate, but the population transformation may be completed ahead of schedule, and the growth of population transformation will be relatively reduced.
In this way, if China's demographic transition is counted from the early days of the founding of the People's Republic of China, then we can summarize the characteristics of China's demographic transition through a simple chart:
First, in 1950- 1973, no matter what kind of estimation, the mortality rate decreased more than the birth rate. The mortality rate dropped from 18‰ to 7‰, and the birth rate dropped from 32‰ to 28‰. This is the stage of demographic transition dominated by the decline in mortality, and it is also the beginning stage of demographic transition. Due to the decline in mortality and the establishment of the socialist system. The construction of rural cooperative medical system is closely related, so we call it "system transformation" here.
Secondly, at 1973- 1980, on the contrary, the decline of birth rate is obviously greater than that of death rate, with the birth rate dropping from 28‰ to 18‰ and the death rate dropping from 7‰ to 6‰. This stage is the accelerated stage of population transformation, which is dominated by the decline of birth rate. Due to the sharp drop in the birth rate at that time and China's strong advocacy of "having fewer children later". The "less" birth policy has a lot to do with it, so we call it "policy change" here.
Thirdly, after 1980, the population transition is a stage of deceleration and completion. At that time, the crude death rate changed steadily, almost fluctuating at the level of 6.5‰, while the crude birth rate decreased slowly in these fluctuations, and the crude birth rate decreased from 18‰ to 16‰. During this period, the reform and opening up has created a better social and economic environment for population control, and social birth control is also constantly completing its own changes. The later, the more clearly it shows the power of comprehensive "development". So here we call it "development transformation".
In addition to the above-mentioned stage characteristics, the characteristics of China's demographic transition road are: the mortality rate is the first to decline, which is the same as the empirical model summarized by American demographer Notestein in the 1950s.
(2) The sharp decline of crude birth rate is the product of external force. Without the influence of population policy, the crude birth rate of China population might not have dropped so early and so quickly.
(3) The completion stage of China's demographic transition will be relatively long, which may be the longest of the three stages. In the completion stage, the power of population transformation will depend more on the power of modernization. The effect of policies to promote fertility and fertility decline has been greatly reduced, so the fertility rate is expected. If the birth rate drops further, it will depend on the modernization of social economy and people in a larger historical span, in which the modernization of fertility culture may play a key role.
(4) Since 1950, the population of China has been in the process of demographic transition. The policy effect of fertility decline in 1970s was quite remarkable, but it tended to weaken after 1980s. Although it is inseparable from the social restriction mechanism in specific work, in fact, the effect of the social restriction mechanism has been fully exerted. Especially in the 1990s, under the background of social progress, the role of interest-oriented mechanism became more and more important.
(5) In the division of three stages, the first stage of mortality decline can be regarded as the product of system reform. At the beginning of the founding of the People's Republic of China, the country was rich and the people were safe, the medical and health conditions were greatly improved, and the mortality rate dropped significantly, especially the infant mortality rate. By the end of 1950s, the birth rate had a slow but conscious downward trend. The birth rate decline in the second stage is a typical "policy type", which is suppressed by policy forces, but the effect of policy is not omnipotent after all, and the birth rate decline has insurmountable social and cultural boundaries. Since the 1980s, the "one-child" birth policy has narrowed and restricted the space for birth decision-making, resulting in a large number of birth conflicts on cultural boundaries. In this way, in the third stage, the decline of birth rate and death rate can be classified as "developmental". In other words, without social and economic development in many aspects and touching people's values and fertility concepts, the further decline of the birth rate will be unpredictable.
(6) The most unique feature of China's demographic transition is that since 1970s, it has introduced powerful population policy factors, thus interfering with the natural demographic transition process and making it rapid. However, for this reason, we have also paid a heavy price, such as the rising and high sex ratio of newborns, the weakening of family pension function, the unbalanced development of the only child's quality, the distortion of statistical data, the tension between cadres and the masses, and so on.