Taking Changjiang spot 1# copper as the representative, the average price of 1# copper at the beginning of the month was 70,880 yuan/ton, and it rose to the highest point of 75,050 yuan/ton within the month (March 7). After a rapid decline, it oscillated and adjusted within the range, and the center of gravity began to move up slightly in the middle and late stages. As of March 29th, the average spot price of copper in changjiang no.1 was 74,260 yuan/ton, which was 3,320 yuan/ton higher than 70,940 yuan/ton at the end of February, or about 4.68%.
Copper prices may not rise sharply in 2022. According to the agency's forecast, copper prices will remain strong at least until the end of next year, and in the long run, structural deficits will keep copper prices high. The carbon transformation efforts of the government and industry are ultimately beneficial to copper production, and copper supply has been trying to keep up with the demand in some regions, including Chile.
Outlook:
Macroscopically, the CPI of the United States in June was 5438+065438+10, which increased by 6.8% year-on-year, setting a new high in the past 40 years. At the interest rate meeting in June 5438+February, the Federal Reserve not only raised its inflation forecast for this year and next, but also raised the expected number of interest rate hikes next year from 1 to three times, with 10 among its 18 officials supporting three interest rate hikes. As can be seen from the statement of the Federal Reserve, high inflation has become the "number one enemy" of the Federal Reserve. Domestic real estate data has declined compared with last year. Although the margin of financing environment is loose, the policy of housing, housing and non-speculation is the long-term direction, and the real estate industry is still not optimistic for a long time. From a macro perspective, the expectation of tight liquidity and pessimistic consumption in the future is relatively strong. Historically, every bull market peaked when monetary policy tightened and demand declined.
At present, the biggest support of copper market lies in low inventory. Domestic inventory fell to a historical low, and the global leading bonded area copper inventory was only 350,000 tons. We believe that low inventory is mainly a structural shortage caused by hidden inventory and logistics problems. At present, lme copper stocks have bottomed out and began to stock up. The premium of 0-3 liters of LME copper has narrowed to normal level. Low domestic stocks and reduced imports of copper are important factors. Due to poor logistics and transportation, it is estimated that 200,000-300,000 tons of hidden stocks of refined copper and crude copper have been accumulated in Africa and other regions. Later, we will pay attention to the recovery of North American logistics after Christmas. Once the logistics begins to recover, the supply pressure in the market outlook is greater. According to our statistics, the copper mine will increase by more than 6.5438+0 million tons next year, and the logistics problem may be obviously improved in the second half of the year. However, domestic real estate and overseas consumption expectations are not optimistic. Under the background of a large surplus of supply and demand expectations, the fundamentals of copper will reverse.