1 "group immunity"
The so-called "group immunity" means that after most people in a group produce antibodies to a certain virus, they have a group immune effect to protect other individuals who are not immune from infection. [Sogou Encyclopedia]
It is a long process of natural selection and a relatively statistical conclusion that finding intermediate hosts from viruses is getting weaker and weaker. It can't be said that it is untenable, but what does it mean if we only ask questions and provide policy reference based on this model?
(1) Waiting for a vaccine or a specific drug to be developed.
What is a vaccine? What is its mechanism of inhibiting virus? How long does research and development take?
A vaccine is a virus that has been killed or attenuated. After the vaccine is injected into the human body, its weak toxicity stimulates the immune mechanism of the human body, which is to produce antibodies, thus achieving the effect of resisting the virus. What, the vaccine is a virus, is this horrible? Don't worry, listen to me slowly.
The research and development of vaccines in scientific laboratories can be roughly divided into three stages, namely virus inactivation, virus stock solution recovery and animal experiments.
Vaccine inactivation is to isolate virus samples from infected people, and inactivate the virus or weaken its toxicity by means of biotechnology such as genetic engineering. In this process, it is necessary to ensure the original characteristics of the virus and have certain antibody immunity.
Because the virus has no cell structure, it needs to be parasitic in cells in public to survive. The virus solution after proliferation and culture is rich in cell culture solution, serum, cells and their fragments, which need to be purified and identified, and then a small amount of auxiliary reagents are added to become vaccine solution.
In short, after isolation-attenuation, purification-identification and vector-evaluation, the final clinical trial involves a large number of investigations and takes the longest time.
According to an American expert who came to China to exchange vaccine research with Academician Zhong Nanshan, the period of vaccine research needs at least one year, which at least shows that it cannot be solved in a short time.
(2) Using the young people who are not easy to be infected or infected to produce antibodies and establish a similar "group immune barrier".
I don't know how many lives this immune barrier will cost. Even if it is calculated according to the mortality rate of healthy young people 1%.
The British government has reported that it is predicted that 50 million people will be infected and 500,000 people will die. As of March 15, the British government only banned large gatherings of more than 500 people, but did not close schools.
Others say that this is to follow objectivity and seek truth from facts. Britain has witnessed the spread of the global epidemic and must have responded at the initial stage of initiative and passivity.
It found that it was impossible for China to organize a war to mobilize people to fight the epidemic, otherwise public medical resources would be exhausted or paralyzed.
The danger of "group immunity" is that if it is not actively prevented and treated, it is equivalent to waiting for COVID-19's natural death. To put it bluntly, laissez-faire is the real "natural selection, survival of the fittest".
However, with the development of human civilization to this day, advanced wisdom has gradually evolved, and a kind of emotional model and moral code that belongs to human beings has emerged: humanitarianism. Ask yourself, is this their best choice?
2 administrative power
From a certain point of view, the British government's "executive power" is very strong. Why do you say that? The procrastination policy introduced by Britain, let's call it procrastination policy, is somewhat ironic, scaring the British people to stay at home so that they can take the next step.
In a democratic society, there is no compulsion and medical resources are relatively limited. If the government announces a city closure or a curfew, all kinds of forces will oppose and even cause riots. Will never be affected by the epidemic situation.
However, this kind of executive power cannot conceal the objective fact that the British government is unable to cope with the spread of the epidemic, at least its attitude is not positive enough.
In fact, Britain has an advantage. After leaving the EU, it is a non-Schengen country, which can be governed relatively independently, such as setting entry and exit restrictions.
However, it pessimistically believes that the general trend has gone, and then retreats, trying to make the best use of limited medical resources, and the result is likely to be counterproductive, that is, "there is no retreat."
Therefore, the implementation needs strong and firm belief support, and the more difficult and dangerous it is, the more it needs the power of this belief. If this is a strategy adopted because of different national conditions, it can only be said that the risk is too great.
3 national conditions
When it comes to British national conditions, we have to mention their social medical system and cultural concept.
(1) Social medical system
NHS(National), the national social health insurance system in Britain.
Health service is compulsory, all of which are composed of taxes. It emphasizes that the government controls the input and distribution of health resources, and health care in each district is the focus of its health service.
In short, all people in Britain enjoy free medical care. Some people say that this is not "eating the same pot". Yes, it's easier to understand.
The serious financial burden leads to low operating efficiency of hospitals, low medical quality, long waiting time for the public and low satisfaction, but this is relative.
During Blair's administration, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew and his wife visited Britain. That night, my wife had a stroke and was in critical condition. The ambulance will arrive in 45 minutes, and the journey to the hospital is only 10 minutes.
When I arrived at the hospital, I found that I had to wait in line for rescue, and I had to wait for 8 hours for brain CT examination. In desperation, Lee Kuan Yew turned to Blair for help, and the British government came forward to coordinate with the hospital. Three hours later, Li Furen had a CT scan.
After first aid, Li Furen was out of danger. Lee Kuan Yew weighed the pros and cons and decided to "take risks". He took his wife back to China for treatment on Singapore Airlines flight. After returning to China, he was treated in the central hospital. Li Furen's condition improved steadily.
Since 1980s, the British government has continuously reformed the NHS medical system to improve efficiency as much as possible under the premise of fairness.
Such a medical system will lead to giving up at both ends (mild and severe) during the anti-epidemic period, and one will be left unattended and the other will be eliminated naturally. And our medical system is "broad-spectrum" in order to save every life.
(2) Cultural concept
It is not surprising that the British can propose "group immunity". They are well aware of the power of natural selection.
Britain is a great country in history, known as "the sun never sets on the empire".
/kloc-Malthus's "population theory" in the 0/8th century had a wide and far-reaching influence on later generations. This is a book about sociology and economics.
It emphasizes that the population must be restricted by the means of subsistence, thus affirming the natural law of polarization between the rich and the poor and the inevitability of private ownership of assets.
Although Malthus' population theory has its historical limitations, to a certain extent, it is through criticizing him that,
Marx and Engels began to think and finally formed their scientific understanding of the proletariat.
Inspired by Malthus' population theory, Darwin finally completed the world-famous Origin of Species and became the founder of the theory of evolution.
The industrial and technological revolution based on the development of natural science has triggered profound social changes, promoted the rapid development of society and shined in the history of human development.
Therefore, Britain, the United States and other western countries advocate the "law of the jungle" from their bones, which is deeply rooted and penetrates into all aspects of people's behavior and society.
There was once a demographics of terminally ill patients: after terminally ill patients, the shortest life expectancy in many countries is Britain, with an average of more than one year, and the longest is China and Japan.
This natural law is "normal" in epidemic prevention and control.
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WHO has long characterized the epidemic situation of new coronary pneumonia as a "global public health emergency". I agree that the mortality rate in COVID-19 varies from place to place and from person to person. I also agree that different coping styles will be chosen according to different national conditions and cultures.
Although no country can copy China's anti-epidemic model, it is absolutely necessary to launch global cooperation.