Global industrial metals "open down"! Shanghai and Wuxi fell 10% in five trading days, and Luntong continued to hit a new low of 16 months. When US President Biden plans to visit the Middle East, OPCE+ may decide to increase production by 648,000 barrels per day in August. Germany officially raised the risk level of natural gas, upgraded the risk level from "early warning" to "warning", and warned that Russia may trigger the collapse of the energy market.

In addition, CBOT agricultural products continued to fall this week. As of the close of this morning, the most active 65438+February contract in CBOT corn market closed at $6.555/bushel, down 5.5 1% from the previous trading day. CBOT wheat contract in September closed at 9.4925 USD/bushel, down 3.99% from the previous trading day; The CBOT soybean 1 1 contract closed at 14. 155 USD/bushel, down 4. 13% compared with the previous trading day.

OPCE or adhere to the accelerated production increase plan

According to sources, when US President Biden plans to visit the Middle East, OPCE+ may insist on increasing production by 648,000 barrels per day in August, hoping to alleviate the soaring oil price and inflationary pressure. At the meeting in June, the organization agreed to increase production by 648,000 barrels per day in July, or 0.7% of global demand, and increase production by the same amount in August. The company had previously planned to increase its daily output by 432,000 barrels in the three months to September.

The sanctions against Russia have aggravated the global energy shortage. To this end, the West has been exerting pressure for several months, and the decision of OPEC+to increase production has been welcomed by the United States. OPCE+ will hold its next meeting on June 30th, when it may focus on the production policy in August. Due to the insufficient investment in oil fields by some member countries and the recent production reduction in Russia, it is difficult for OPCE+ to achieve the goal of increasing production.

As of the close of this morning, WTI8 crude oil futures in August fell 1.8 1% to 104.27 USD/barrel. August Brent crude oil futures fell 1.5 1% to 1 10.05 USD/barrel.

Global industrial metals "open down"! Shanghai and Wuxi fell 10% in five trading days, and Luntong continued to hit a new low of 16 months.

Due to the poor manufacturing data in Europe and the United States, and the central banks of major European and American countries have started to raise interest rates sharply, investors in financial markets are worried about the economic recession. Future demand expectations continue to be pessimistic, and global industrial metals "fall endlessly" this week.

On Thursday, Dr. LME's three-month copper main contract, known as the weather vane of economic activities, once fell by 5%, the biggest drop since 20021June, falling below $8,400/ton to $8,338/ton, the lowest since February 20021year.

In the domestic futures market on Thursday, Shanghai Nickel fell more than 5%; Shanghai copper fell more than 2%; Shanghai aluminum fell more than 1% to a six-month low; Shanghai and Wuxi fell more than 6% to 202 1, the lowest since July, and fell more than 10% in five trading days. In the evening, Shanghai Tin continued to fall by more than 4%, while Shanghai Zinc and Shanghai Copper fell by more than 1%. In the evening, Shanghai copper fell by 4%, Shanghai aluminum and lead fell by 0.6%, Shanghai zinc and nickel fell by 2.6%, and Shanghai tin fell by 6.2%.

The "Lehman Shadow" reappeared over Europe, and Germany warned Russia or triggered a collapse of the energy market.

On June 23rd, local time, Germany officially upgraded the risk level of natural gas from "early warning" to "alert". German Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Climate Protection Chabeck said in an official statement that the German government will provide a loan of 654.38+0.5 billion euros to reserve natural gas and prepare for winter. At the same time, Germany will start additional coal-fired power generation to replace the current natural gas power generation, thus strengthening natural gas reserves.

Germany warned that Russia's reduction of European natural gas supply may lead to the collapse of the energy market. If the gap between supply and demand in the natural gas market is too large, the energy market is in danger of collapse, and the energy industry will have a "Lehman crisis". After upgrading the risk level of German natural gas to the second highest "alert" level, Economy Minister RobertHabeck said that the loss of energy suppliers is increasing due to the forced high price to make up for the lost gas volume, and there may be spillover risks to local public utilities and their users (including consumers and enterprises).

Chabek told a news conference in Berlin that if the losses are too great for them, the whole market will collapse at some point. This is the Lehman effect of the energy system.

The upgrade of alert level has strengthened the monitoring of the market, and some coal-fired power plants will be put into operation again. According to the current inflow rate of natural gas, it will take Germany 1 16 days to reach the 90% storage capacity target, which means that the whole process will not be completed until the middle of 10, and families need to start consuming more natural gas for heating at this time of year.

German companies responded quickly. BASF, a chemical giant, announced that due to soaring natural gas prices, production may be reduced, and BMW may buy electricity from a third party instead of operating its own gas-fired power plant.

Speaking at the European Parliament, FransTimmermans, head of the European Union's climate issues, said that the impact of this crisis has gone far beyond the scope of Germany. In fact, 12 EU member states have been affected, among which 10 member states have issued early warnings according to natural gas safety regulations.

So far, the reduction of "Beixi-1" pipeline transportation has hardly had a substantial impact on German industrial production, mainly because Germany's natural gas consumption in summer is only a quarter or a fifth of that in winter. However, the interruption of supply seriously affected Germany's efforts to fill gas storage facilities before the winter heating season.

On the 22nd local time, the International Energy Agency released the Global Energy Investment Report 2022. The report predicts that global energy investment will increase by 8% in 2022, but the growth of investment is not enough to cope with the current energy and climate crisis. On the same day, Birol, Director General of the International Energy Agency, said that Europe needs to be prepared for the energy crisis to prevent Russian gas exports to Europe from being completely interrupted. And urged European governments to take measures as soon as possible to weaken the demand for natural gas and maintain the operation of nuclear power plants.

Birol warned that with the continuation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Europe may completely lose Russia's natural gas supply, so it is necessary to make emergency plans. European countries should step up the storage of natural gas and take measures such as delaying the closure of nuclear power plants and restarting coal-fired power generation to deal with potential risks.

The natural gas crisis is not limited to Germany. According to FransTimmermans, the head of EU climate affairs, 12 EU member states have been affected, among which 10 member states have issued an early warning according to the law, and the risk of total natural gas interruption is more real than ever.

Palm oil "burst its banks" and the oil market fell by more than a thousand points.

On Thursday, the price of crude oil plummeted, and commodities, including oils and fats, suffered collective selling. Under the macro negative influence, palm oil faced the pressure of Indonesia's huge palm oil inventory and accelerated export recovery, and the oil sector collectively gapped lower, with a drop of more than 3%.

From the beginning of the year to the beginning of June, the global oil supply was tight, the export of sunflower oil in Ukraine was restricted, the export of palm oil was banned in Indonesia, and the weather in the United States was hyped. Domestic soybean oil futures prices rose by about 35%, vegetable oil by about 20% and palm oil by about 40%. Recently, in response to inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve has accelerated its tightening pace. At the hearing of the US Congress, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates to curb inflation. Under the influence of raising interest rates and shrinking the table, the market's expectation of economic recession has increased, and the risk appetite has dropped significantly. The macro selling pressure was superimposed on Indonesia's accelerated purchasing and storage. The European Union's soybean palm oil-based firewood loosened, and palm oil led the rise, withdrawing 1500 points in just six trading days, dragging down the trend of soybean and vegetable oil, and the overall center of gravity of oil moved down.

Analysts believe that the recent palm oil price is the main driver of the downward trend of oil and fat, and the range and extent of the callback is the largest in this round of oil and fat bull market. Among them, the price reduction mainly reflects the impact of Indonesia's exports. At the end of April, Indonesia's export ban pushed palm oil to the forefront, and now exports are gradually aware of the sharp drop in palm oil prices.

From the perspective of the industry, Guo, an agricultural product analyst at the Futures Research Institute, said that Indonesia is currently at the peak of production, with a monthly output of more than 4 million tons. Palm oil stocks are at a historical high, facing the risk of storage expansion, while domestic monthly consumption is only about 6.5438+0.5 million tons, and monthly exports of more than 2.5 million tons can avoid storage expansion and production restriction.

Indonesia's export pace is accelerating. The DMO export quota has issued an export license of 894,000 tons, and the export license has been issued in the accelerated export plan of 610.3 million tons, with a cumulative export of more than10.5 million tons. Although the monthly export has been less than 2 million tons since May 20th, the export license issued by Indonesia has increased by 700,000 tons in the past week, and the approval speed has been accelerated, so the marginal supply of Indonesian exports has increased in the short to medium term.

In addition, palm oil production in Malaysia resumed in June. Guo Guowei said that although the growth rate was constrained by the shortage of labor, the competition between exports and Indonesia declined month-on-month, and the supply and demand structure of palm oil in Malaysia turned loose. It is expected that there will be accumulated inventory at the end of June. In the same period, influenced by Indonesia's exports, the improvement of import profits and the release of domestic procurement demand will ease the shortage of domestic supply and increase the macro-pessimistic atmosphere. He believes that the downward pressure on domestic palm oil prices is still difficult to fade, and the weak oscillation pattern of the oil plate will continue.

"The constant changes in Indonesia's palm oil export policy have largely dominated the rise and fall of this round of oil." Ai Hua, an oil analyst at Huarong Rongda Futures, added,

Oil is affected by multiple factors, and the shock market is still a high probability.

Due to the sharp interest rate hike in the United States and the strong expectation of continuing to raise interest rates, most commodities denominated in dollars are weak. Analysts believe that the fundamentals of soybean meal in the early stage are empty, but the strength of American beans is supported. At present, with the general decline of the market, the main force of American soybeans has shifted to the contract of Xingong 165438+ 10, and the American soybean index has fallen, so has the soybean meal.

From the perspective of global soybean supply and demand, in June 10, USDA issued a monthly report on oil seed supply and demand, which raised the global soybean ending inventory by 9 10/0,000 tons to 8615,000 tons, and the inventory consumption ratio rose to 23.63%. In 2022/2023, the ending inventory of new soybeans increased by 860,000 tons to10.46 million tons.

Ai Hua Key, an oil analyst at Huarong Rongda Futures, said that although the global soybean production is expected to increase substantially in 2022/2023, the new soybean production in South America needs the cooperation of planting area and weather, at least after September. At present, various oil crops in the northern hemisphere are in the growing period. In the future, we need to pay attention to the planting area and growing weather of major oilseed producing countries, and whether the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the progress of negotiations will affect the output and export of oilseeds between the two countries.

In his view, at present, the global supply and demand of oilseeds are still in a double weak pattern, coupled with the interference of macro-currency, exchange rate and other factors, which leads to the continuous oscillation of American soybeans and domestic soybean meal. This situation is likely to continue under the pattern of strong reality and weak expectation.

Domestically, Ai Hua Key said that in May and June, it is estimated that the arrival of soybeans in Hong Kong will exceed 9 million tons, enough to meet domestic demand. In addition, imported soybeans have been auctioned 11week since April in China, with a weekly turnover of nearly 500,000 tons and a cumulative turnover of about 265,438+10,000 tons, which greatly eased the domestic short-term soybean supply and improved the operating rate of oil plants. However, due to the continuous loss of domestic soybean crushing profit of more than 300 yuan/ton, the purchase of oil plants has slowed down, and the amount of soybeans arriving in Hong Kong will decrease after July. However, the current high soybean inventory will meet the soybean demand before August. After August, domestic soybean supply and demand will be more determined by the purchasing rhythm of subsequent domestic oil plants.

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