Now foreign exchange analysts point out that the Australian dollar is likely to be around 0.90 against the US dollar next year.
Dwyfor Evans of State Street Global Market predicts that the interest rate environment will be "favorable" to the euro, because the Fed will keep its promise of low interest rates after reducing its bond purchases.
"We continue to expect the Australian dollar to be in the range of 0.90-0.93, and the current price of the Australian dollar will not last." He said.
Sally Auld of JP Morgan Chase predicts that the Australian dollar will be 0.90 in one year. "The declining terms of trade (import exchange rate ratio) should eventually drag down the Australian dollar, but structural changes in capital inflows (such as diversification of the central bank's foreign exchange reserves), rising commodity prices (relative to the historical average price) and still relatively favorable spreads will mean that the Australian dollar will slow down." She said.
These predictions seem to run counter to the hopes of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Recently, the Reserve Bank of Australia has repeatedly verbally suppressed the exchange rate because the domestic economy is worrying, especially the major car companies are preparing to withdraw from the Australian market.
Although the strategy of verbally intervening in the exchange rate has achieved some success, experts say that this effect will not last long, and the Australian central bank may have to re-use monetary policy tools, such as cutting interest rates.
Joseph Capurso of Commonwealth Bank disputed the RBA's statement that "the Australian dollar exchange rate is uncomfortably high" and hinted that the Australian dollar is close to fair value. Therefore, in this respect, the Australian dollar should be much higher than the average.
Capurso's forecast for the average level of the Australian dollar next year is 0.9 1, which is mainly supported by the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates at a historical low and the Reserve Bank of Australia may start a tightening cycle.
Not all banks expect the Fed to reduce its bond purchases. Robert Rennie of Westpac quoted the bank as saying that the Fed will not reduce its bond purchases next year, but he also questioned the view that Australia's resource boom era is over.
"We expect the next stage to be an export boom. Iron ore exports will increase substantially next year. At the same time, the Queensland Curtis QCLNG project will enter the commissioning project, and some energy projects will be completed on 20 15. " He said.
He also said, "It is true that the capital expenditure of the resource industry has peaked and will decline in the next few years. However, the resource export boom has just begun to heat up. "
Emma Lawson of National Bank of Australia (NAB) predicts that the Australian dollar will average 0.89 in the next 12 months. "Australia's terms of trade will decline," he said.