Which one will you believe if the fundamental analysis is thorough enough? That is the fundamental.
However, few people in the actual market have that level and ability, plus all kinds of inside information, emergencies and so on. Based on market efficiency and pragmatism, I believe in technology.
Which is more important, technology or fundamentals? Since the birth of the stock market, according to the law of historical development, people have come to the conclusion that "the stock market is a barometer of the economy". The performance of the stock market is ahead of the economy, reflecting the real trend of the real economy. This is a macro indicator, which should also be true for individual stocks, that is to say, the trend of individual stocks reflects the actual operation of enterprises, that is, technical aspects obey fundamentals.
Technical aspects are very important.
Fundamentals are useless
The profit model is as strong as falling.
What do you think about fundamentals and technology? No matter how good the stock is, it will always fall, and even the worst stock will rise! Stock selection is inseparable from fundamentals and technology. The following is my personal opinion:
First of all, the fundamentals:
It varies from person to person. Some people like blue-chip stocks (so-called value investment), while others just like st (blue-chip stocks, the theme of speculation and reorganization). Some people like large-cap stocks (state-owned enterprises are guaranteed), while others only speculate in small-cap stocks (small, developed and easy to speculate). Therefore, personality determines fate and is directly related to your preferences!
The mainstream fundamental stock picking ideas are as follows:
1, what plate does it belong to? Price, performance;
2. The nature, present situation and prospect of the industry. The position of enterprises in the industrial structure.
3. The ranking of enterprises in the industry and the market share of enterprise products; Gross profit margin, compound growth rate and cash flow of the enterprise;
4. Total share capital, circulating share capital, earnings per share, main profit margin, long-term liabilities and accounts receivable.
5. Some people pay attention to the changes of shareholders, whether the main force controls the market and so on.
6, policy factors, whether to support the development of the industry, and so on.
Second, the technical side is mainly used for timing:
No matter how good the stock is, the timing is not right, no matter how good it is, so the technical side is mainly timing. Of course, there are also fundamental timing, but this is all played by experts. Let's talk about technology:
Whether the combination of 1 and K-line diagram is beautiful.
2. Whether the market trend is upward and whether individual stocks are out of the bottom. Judgments vary from person to person, and there are two commonly used methods to look at trends: moving average and trend line (that is, low points are followed by low points and high points are followed by high points).
3. Whether the common indicators show the stock rising. This is even more different from person to person. Different people use different indicators. Two recognized indicators are: moving average (showing the cost over a period of time) and MACD.
How to analyze the fundamentals and technical aspects? One of the most commonly used charts in stock market analysis is the K-line chart. It is to find out the trend of stock price changes in the future through the analysis of stock price changes in a period of time.
K-line chart consists of opening price, closing price, highest price and lowest price.
The drawing method is as follows:
Give the coordinates on the coordinate paper first, with the height on the left and the time below. At the position of the day, draw a horizontal line at the opening price and a horizontal line at the closing price, and then connect the two horizontal lines with two vertical lines to form a small square. If the opening price is higher than the closing price, it is called closing yin, and this K line is called negative line. You can paint this small square blue or black.
If the opening price is lower than the closing price, it is called the closing price, and this K line is called the closing price. You can color this small square red or leave it blank. Then find the point with the highest price and the point with the lowest price, and connect these two points with the midpoint of the horizontal line of the small square. If this line is above the small square, it is called a shadow line; If this line is under the small square, it is called a shadow line; Sometimes two prices overlap, that is, the opening price or closing price is also the highest price or the lowest price, and there is no shadow line on one side, which is called bald line or barefoot line. That small square is called a solid.
Fundamental technical trend surface, the so-called technical surface you choose, refers to some indicators and methods used to observe and predict the trend and internal laws of the stock market. Mainly includes:
Trading volume. It is an important indicator of the stock market and has a great influence on the market trend. The sudden enlargement and contraction of trading volume often indicates that the market trend is about to turn, or from rising to falling, or from falling to rising.
(2) the new high or low of the stock price. Of a stock rising or falling to an unprecedented high or low. By comparing the number of stocks with new highs and new lows, we can judge the strength of the stock market. Generally speaking, when there are more innovative stocks than innovative stocks, the stock market trend will rise; On the contrary, it will fall.
(3) technical graphics. According to K-line theory, shape theory, wave theory and other technical analysis methods, through specific graphics, indicators and calculation methods, the market and individual stocks are analyzed and judged, and the future trend is predicted.
What is information, fundamentals and technical information: bad news or good news?
Fundamentals: it is a global macro condition.
Technical aspect: trend pattern over a period of time
How to analyze the technical and fundamental fundamentals is the impact of policy changes in some countries on the stock market or foreign exchange market. The quality of policies directly affects the trend. The technical aspect is equivalent to judging the next trend according to the chart and some indicators. This requirement is relatively high, and you need to learn more.
Fundamental and technical analysis: which is more suitable for foreign exchange trading Many traders sit there at night, trying to decide whether to do fundamental analysis, technical analysis or chart analysis. Well, whether you know it or not, if you are a trader, you should use both technical and fundamental analysis to make trading decisions. It sounds strange. When it comes to the foreign exchange market, it is the most controversial issue. Everyone has their own opinions and will try their best to defend them, but in reality, you should use these two kinds of analysis to make trading decisions. The fun of fundamental analysis charts analysts can cite one example after another to illustrate that you should use technical analysis. However, if you have ever seen the impact of American employment data released on Friday (the first Friday of every month) on the market, you can't deny the power of fundamental analysis. Imagine that on the first Thursday, you are trading, the currency you choose is on the rise, and all the indicators are saying: buy. In this long-term situation, you may feel good and even consider staying in your trading until next week. However, the employment information in the United States has come. This is the ancestor of all fundamental news announcements, which can often shake the foreign exchange market. No other announcement can shake the foreign exchange market so regularly. Then, when you are making another deal and think you are the winner, like all major economic data, the employment data in the United States came, causing great price fluctuations. If the public expects a shocking information release, you can see that the price difference between currencies has increased significantly. If you are right, you will look like a rock star. If you think wrong, you will get home. In this case, even if you have a stop loss, it can't save you, because the order has been converted into a market order, which will be calculated according to the market price at the time of processing the order. Fundamental definition For the study of foreign exchange market, fundamental analysis should compare macroeconomic indicators, asset markets and political factors of different countries, so as to decide whether to buy a country's currency. Macroeconomic indicators include various indicators, such as growth rate (gross domestic product), interest rate, inflation rate, unemployment rate, money supply, foreign exchange reserves, productivity and so on. Other macroeconomic indicators include the consumer price index to measure the cost of living and the producer price index to measure the cost of production. The asset market includes stocks, bonds and real estate. The factors that may affect confidence in a country, the stable atmosphere and the degree of certainty are all political factors that should be considered. When you are studying a country's macro-economy, bank interest is an interesting information. Be careful not to make any premature decisions. Interest rate is like a split personality, which can strengthen and weaken the value of your currency. On the downside, investors tend to sell their stocks. As interest rates rise, they believe that higher borrowing costs will affect the stock market, which will lead to a downturn in the stock market and the national economy. However, high interest rates may attract foreign investment, thus strengthening the local currency. Another thing that needs your attention is the balance of international trade. A trade deficit (imports exceeding exports) is usually a bad sign. Deficit refers to the currency flowing out of the country and buying goods abroad, which will have a depreciation effect on the currency. However, it is important to remember that only the market can decide whether the trade deficit is bad news. If this country often has a deficit, it may have been converted into the price of money. The trade deficit generally affects only one currency, that is, when it is higher than the market consensus. Take a look: the formal definition of technical analysis is: technical analysis is to analyze the past price data to determine the future price trend. Is to study the price in order to get a better deal. The foundation of modern technical analysis can be traced back to Daoism, which was founded by Charles? Tao development, which includes some principles, such as price trend, confirmation and deviation, support and resistance. Technical analysts or chart analysts use many tools to help them identify potential transactions. Because human beings are predictable, technical analysis is meaningful. People often show predictable behaviors, and in similar situations, they will consistently repeat their behaviors. Technical analysis is an art/science, which determines the behavior of the crowd in order to join the crowd and take advantage of its momentum. This is a phrase that people often use: "control your emotions", and it works here. You should be sensitive to what happens in the market, and at the same time, you should not succumb to the public mentality. Technical and analytical traders try to avoid chatting with politicians and analysts. They think that all the information they need to know has been reflected in the price. However, remember not to over-analyze, every action leads to reaction (although not necessarily equal or opposite, it is physics, not transaction). Like you, there are millions of people analyzing the same chart, which is a bit like a cat-and-mouse game. It may be incredibly complicated, it may be bluffing, it may be cheating and pretending, and it may be losing first and then winning. Traders can be a group of cunning people. My last meaningful suggestion is that investors' expectations will change with time. This means that you should be down-to-earth and pay attention to changes and emerging trends.