Nine new markets will enter the market next year 1 month.
On the 28th, Beijing land market ushered in 20 15. As a residential land in renhe town, Shunyi District, it was won for the first time. In 20 15, the Beijing land market ended with a land transfer fee of 203.2 billion yuan, a record high. However, the fiery land market has not been transmitted to the residential market. According to the statistics of Yahao organization, only 9 projects in Beijing will enter the market in the coming month. Many projects indicate that the market will be closed before the Spring Festival and the property market will enter the traditional off-season.
At the end of the year, only 9 projects will be opened in the coming year.
Seeing the Chinese New Year, developers are still desperately trying to grab performance. Last weekend, Fangshan District once announced that Ilya County, a newly-needed project that will enter the market next year, finally launched nearly 300 suites on the 26th. Since most of these houses are two-bedroom or three-bedroom houses of 80 to 97 square meters, the average price is 22,000 yuan/square meter. Although compared with the previous period, the price increase is obvious, it is still very cost-effective in this year's luxury housing market with high prices, attracting a large number of buyers to queue up early to choose a house and eventually sell out on the same day.
Coincidentally, Longhu Real Estate, which also has performance requirements, also launched Dongba's pure new Panlonghu Pu Tian at the end of the year. According to the person in charge of the project, since the opening of 18 in February, all the 132 sets of "Pingshu" houses launched that day have been sold out, with sales reaching1200 million yuan. The 132 sets of Pingshu products cover an area of 130-400 square meters, including 32 sets of Shu Yue products and 0/00 sets of Pingshu products.
Near the end of the year, developers launched a final offensive to grab a bumper harvest, because according to the usual practice, the arrival of the New Year holiday and the approach of the Spring Festival are both when the property market is frozen, not only the supply of new sites is very small, but also the turnover is pitiful. According to the statistics of Yahao organization, only nine projects are expected to enter the commercial housing market in Beijing in June 5438+ 10 next year, including five pure new sites such as Xiangshan Four Seasons Mansion, Huayuanhua Center and Xindi International Home, and four old projects such as Xiangyue Four Seasons, Yosemite D District and Guancheng Villa.
Guo Yi, director of institutional marketing of Yahao, believes that 1 and February, where New Year's Day and Spring Festival are held, are the periods with the lowest supply in the property market, and 20 16 is no exception.
In addition, the supply downturn in June 20 16 also has its unique background. Based on the high price characteristics of the land market, the signs of luxury housing in Beijing have appeared in 20 15, and this trend will be more obvious in 20 16. Therefore, more projects choose to implement the closing policy before the Spring Festival, and the price is expected to be higher during the Spring Festival. It can be judged that the supply of Beijing property market is expected to be released from 2065438+March 2006.
20 16 four types of new discs will dominate the supply.
Although only 9 sets of new houses will enter the market in June 5438+ 10 next year, it includes four main types of new house supply in 20 16. Guo Yi said that with the change of land market, the proportion of these four products will also change in 20 16 years.
First of all, the first category is high-end housing with a unit price higher than 60,000 yuan/square meter. The project planned to enter the market in June+10, 5438 is represented by Xiangshan Four Seasons Mansion. The estimated price of this project is 80,000 yuan/square meter. In 20 15, among the 48 homestead transactions, the actual floor price exceeded 30,000 yuan/m2 in 25 cases, more than half of which the future price of 10 plot exceeded 654.38+10,000 yuan. Guo Yi believes that with the large number of new luxury houses entering the market, the prices of old projects around will be pushed into the ranks of high-end houses, the market share of 20 16 famous luxury houses will continue to increase, and the price level will continue to rise.
The second category is villa products. The project planned to enter the market in 5438+ 10 is represented by Yosemite Zone D. As there are as many as 23 plots with plot ratio below10/4 in Beijing residential land transactions in the past two years, it is possible to develop a small number of villa products in these plots. Therefore, although the villa ban is still there, the supply of villas is far from the same.
The third category is commercial and residential apartment products. Vanke Tiandi is the representative of the planned opening project in June+10, 5438. In 20 15, this kind of products has shown a momentum of going forward bravely. Unlimited purchase and low total price are the biggest advantages for commercial and residential apartments to seize market share. At the same time, commercial and residential products have become the choice of people who just need to buy a house because of their price advantage.
The fourth category is ordinary residential projects. 5438+ 10, among the projects planned to open in October, there are four seasons in Hunan and Guangdong and ocean spring. Due to the land price, there are fewer and fewer ordinary houses with the relationship between supply and demand, especially under the background that the Fifth Ring Road will enter 654.38+ 10,000+and the Sixth Ring Road will enter 50,000+,the supply of low-priced ordinary houses in new projects will be significantly reduced, and the prices of old projects will be increased together. Industry insiders predict that the ordinary residential market in Beijing will be characterized by rising prices and the location of new projects will be more remote.
There are fewer and fewer "just-needed houses"
It is not difficult to see that although there are only nine projects, they include villas, apartments, commercial and residential buildings and ordinary houses. Behind the seemingly lively is the shortage of ordinary housing, especially the "just-needed housing".
The price of "bread" has always been determined by "flour", and so has the property market. In the past two years, Beijing's land price has been hitting record highs, and the transaction price of the property market has also ushered in a new era. According to the data of Zhongyuan Real Estate, it is estimated that in 20 15, the number of commercial housing contracts in Beijing will reach about 54,000 sets, and the average transaction price may approach 30,000 yuan/square meter, which is nearly 10% higher than that in 20 14.
The average transaction price of new houses is close to 30 thousand yuan/square meter, which means that there are fewer and fewer low-end commercial houses in the past. The Fifth Ring Road has become a concentrated place for luxury houses, and the Sixth Ring Road even auctioned a land price of 30,000 yuan/square meter, making the just-needed projects in Beijing even more difficult to trace.
June 5438+ 10 new disk statistics, in addition to commercial and residential projects Vanke Tiandi, there are small-sized LOFT products. Of the nine projects expected to open, only Yuanyang Spring in Fangshan District can be called just needed. The project focuses on 74- 128 square meters of two-bedroom to four-bedroom apartments, and the estimated price is 25,000 yuan/square meter, which is still under consideration in the near future.
According to industry insiders, luxury houses are all "five rings" or even "six rings", and the demand for improving properties is squeezed. The first thing to bear the brunt is the demand for first-time home buyers. The threshold jumped from the total price of 6,543,800 yuan to 2 million yuan. The person in charge of a real estate enterprise further said: "Land prices have pushed up housing prices. The commodity housing market that just needs to be squeezed out this year has turned to self-housing, 50-year-old commercial and residential LOFT, or old second-hand houses, and even a large part of people who just need it choose Yanjiao, Langfang and other surrounding areas of Beijing." Moreover, even in these areas around Beijing, prices have started to rise, and it has become a common phenomenon that the average price is raised by 1000 yuan per square meter.
Compared with the need of being squeezed, luxury homes are high-profile customers in the new housing market. The boundary between the improvement plate and the luxury plate is increasingly blurred. In the eyes of many developers, the total price of 8 million yuan/set is an initial improvement, and100000 yuan/set is the threshold for improving home ownership. From the South Fourth Ring Road to the South Fifth Ring Road, which is dominated by Fengtai and Daxing, Dongba and Sunhe in Chaoyang District have become emerging high-grade residential areas. Beijing's low-cost demand is mainly concentrated in Fangshan and Daxing outside the Sixth Ring Road.
There are differences in the industry on the trend of 20 16 property market.
Although the average floor price of land hit a new high this year, luxury residential projects may be further expanded next year, and the transaction price is likely to hit a new high, but there are differences in the industry as to whether the price increase will slow down or continue to triumph.
Hu Jinghui, vice president of Ye Wei I Love My Family Group Holding Company, said that in 20 16 years, "quantity increase and price increase" will continue to dominate the new housing market, but the price increase will not be too big.
Hu Jinghui believes that, from the policy tone, destocking will remain an important regulation direction of the 20 16 property market. Therefore, the property market policy will continue to support the release of housing demand, and the increase in transaction volume will still be a high probability event. At the same time, influenced by the high transaction price of 20 15, the pan-luxury houses in the Fifth Ring Road have basically taken shape, which will also improve the overall housing price level in Beijing from the statistical structure.
However, Hu Jinghui also pointed out that policy restrictions in previous years led to greater pressure on the original inventory of luxury homes. Now that the policy is liberalized and the supply is liberalized, luxury homes will be concentrated in the market next year, and the supply is huge; At present, the improved demand tends to be compact and low-priced, which does not match the luxury house and has limited market digestion. Therefore, in 20 16 years, the sales pressure of luxury houses will increase, and there is limited room for price increase under the background of destocking in the property market.
Guo Yi believes that another price increase in the property market is a high probability event. For example, she said that projects that entered the market at the end of the year have started to raise prices. Last week, Ilya County, the first batch of old projects that entered the market, rose by nearly 30%, and Poly Luolan Xianggu also rose slightly, while the pure new plate Jinyu House entered the market at a price of 60,000 yuan/square meter.
(The above answers were published on 2015-12-31. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )
For more real estate information, policy interpretation and expert interpretation, click to view.