I. Fundamentals of listed companies of China Southern Airlines (long-term trend analysis):
China Southern Airlines is one of the three major aviation groups in China. It has formed a route network with Guangzhou and Beijing as the central hubs, covering China intensively, radiating Asia and connecting Europe, America and Australia. In 2007, the passenger traffic of China Southern Airlines reached 810.73 billion person-kilometers, while that of Air China was 70.03 billion person-kilometers. In 2007, China Southern ranked fourth in the world and first in Asia. At the same time, it joined SkyTeam in 2007, becoming the first continental airline in China to join the international aviation alliance.
2. Latest financial data indicators: (08-09-30)
Earnings per share (RMB) 0.0040, net assets per share (RMB) 1.8700, return on net assets (%) 0.23, total share capital (RMB 100 million) 65 127, actual circulating A shares (RMB 100 million) 15.0000. Net profit (ten thousand yuan): 2,800.00 yuan, down-98.72% year-on-year;
3. The favorable information of China Southern Airlines:
(1) National policies are beneficial to the development of China Southern Airlines. On February 18, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Notice on Implementing the Reform of Refined Oil Prices and Taxes. Since 0: 00 on February 9, 2008, the ex-factory price of aviation kerosene has been adjusted from 7 450 yuan to 5,050 yuan per ton, with a reduction of 2 400 yuan per ton, with an adjustment range of 32%. At the same time, in the afternoon of 12 and 19, the additional fuel standards for passenger transportation on domestic routes were lowered accordingly from February 25, 2008. Among them, routes over 800 km (inclusive) were reduced from per passenger 150 yuan to 40 yuan, and routes under 800 km were reduced from 80 yuan to 20 yuan.
⑵ The company has other competitive and hedging advantages.
1. Compare Air China and China Eastern Airlines (600 1 15. SS, RMB 4.63, unrated), the company ended aviation fuel hedging in September 2008, and since then, the international oil price has been falling all the way, with 65438+February 19 being the lowest since 2004. Air China and China Eastern Airlines suffered heavy losses, and the losses of transactional financial assets will reach 5 billion and 3.7 billion respectively this year.
2. Since the exchange rate reform, the appreciation of RMB has stagnated in the second half of 2008, and the domestic export level has dropped 1 19% year-on-year. In order to stimulate domestic exports, the growth rate of RMB against the US dollar may be only 1%-2% in 2009, and it may depreciate. For airlines, exchange gains will decrease in 2009, and even exchange losses will occur.
At present, China Southern Airlines has adjusted the dollar debt ratio in time, which has now dropped to about 70%, compared with 96% in 2007. The continuous downward adjustment of domestic interest will also reduce the company's interest expenses.
(3) Good policy information
China Southern Airlines Group, the controlling shareholder, accepted the state's capital injection of 3 billion yuan. China Southern Airlines10126 announced that China Southern Airlines Group, the controlling shareholder of the company, recently received the Notice of the Ministry of Finance on Issuing the Central State-owned Capital Operating Budget (Appropriation) of China Southern Airlines Group in 2008 (documentNo. Caiqi [2008]3 16). According to this notice, the Ministry of Finance has given China Southern a central state-owned capital operating budget of 3 billion yuan in 2008, which is regarded as increasing China Southern's state-owned capital. The board of directors of China Southern Airlines has asked the executive directors and controlling shareholders of China Southern Airlines about this matter. At present, China Southern Airlines is considering injecting this fund into the company, and China Southern itself is also planning a non-public offering of shares.
(4) Investment risk
At present, the biggest investment risk of the company lies in the utilization rate of aircraft next year. Although the available capacity of the company has further increased after the new aircraft was put into production, the increase of RPK driven by the increase of 10% ASK is an important uncertain factor in the current market environment. At the same time, the time and intensity of international oil price rebound is another key factor affecting the company's future development.
5] Company evaluation and investment suggestions
Because the price adjustment of aviation kerosene exceeds market expectations, the state has played a decisive role in promoting the recovery of aviation industry. As the first airline to receive state capital injection and the highest domestic aviation market share, its future performance is worth looking forward to. We improved the company's earnings per share. In 2008-10, EPS was increased from -0.05 yuan and -0.23 yuan in 9 yuan and 0.0 yuan to -0.05 yuan, 0.30 yuan and 0.43 yuan. After the internal private placement in 2009, the company's net assets per share reached 2.44 yuan, giving the company 1.8 times PB. In 2009, the target price of 4.3 yuan was 15.3%, and it was rated as the first "overweight".
2. Short-term technical index analysis of China Southern Airlines (short-term technical index analysis):
Judging from the current technical indicators such as the K-line form of 600050 Unicom, the short-term situation is not good. As of today, the stock has fallen below the full support of the EMA, but the stock price is supported by the 10 EMA, which means that the stock price is drifting. The J-line of stochastic KDJ indicator is already -8. 10, and there is no sign of turning back. The KDJ indicator is now displayed.
However, the situation of VOL indicator and MACD indicator on the disk is not very bad. From the disk, the trend indicator of MACD will basically slide below the zero axis, and there are signs of gradual weakening. At present, the MACD index is -0. 10, which has entered a weak area, but the DIF and DEA that make up the index form a downward divergence form with the J line, and the market outlook is basically a downward trend and weak consolidation.
As can be seen from the VOL, today's trading volume has shrunk a lot year-on-year. Relative to the circulation market, it is already the order of magnitude of land. After the opening in the afternoon, the stock had three obvious upswing actions, with obvious effects. Moreover, the stock price has also broken through the suppression of the 10 moving average, and the attack power has been strengthened in the last half hour. The intention of the main attack of the unit is obvious, but the sales of the five gears hanging on it are also relatively large, indicating that there is still a round of fighting between long and short positions.
It should be noted that: combined with the K-line chart of the disk, the short-term and trend KDJ/ MA /MACD of the stock, and the volume index of VOL, the stock price is between the downward trend and the weak sideways, so the trend depends entirely on the trend of the broader market. If the market is good, it will rise, and if it is not good, it will fall;
Conclusion of analysis and judgment:
Judging from the situation in Shanghai today, it is difficult to make a difference in the short term. In view of the differences and uncertainties in the restructuring of the stock, and the sharp decline in the operating performance of listed companies this year, the aviation industry will not perform well under the financial crisis. China Southern Airlines is not the best variety in terms of short-term or medium-and long-term investment, so it is not recommended to invest in the stock, and it is appropriate to keep an eye on it.