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China's economic development trend in the next five years
Dong Zhikai of Frontier Economic Research Institute used force.

The Development Trend of Modern Economic History in China

The research object of China's modern economic history is People's Republic of China (PRC)'s economic development history and institutional change history, that is, from/kloc-0 to the founding of New China in June, 949. As far as the research team is concerned, it mainly consists of two parts: one is a historian who studies the history of the party and the country; The second is an economist who studies economics and real economic problems. There are not many scholars who specialize in the modern economic history of China. From the perspective of research methods, due to the differences in academic background, research starting point and research purpose, the methods of economics and history are almost equally divided.

The research scope of China's modern economic history is mainly the history and experience of the economic development and institutional changes of the People's Republic of China since 1949. It also includes the economy of revolutionary base areas and liberated areas led by China * * * Production Party before 1949; It also includes the study of the economic history of Hongkong, Macau and Taiwan Province Province, including the comparative study of the history of Sino-foreign economic relations and the modern Chinese and foreign economic history.

As far as the focus of the study of China's modern economic history during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period is concerned, it is still "what we said in the past must be verified today", that is, tracking the hot spots and focal issues of the real economy in recent years and promoting the study of economic history. To sum up, there are mainly the following problems: (1) the formation and evolution of "three rural issues" (including urbanization); (2) the evolution of government's economic function; (3) the evolution of foreign economic relations (in line with China's accession to the WTO); (4) Research on regional economic history (cooperating with the development of the western region and revitalizing the old industrial base in Northeast China).

Because the main research object of China's modern economic history is the history of China people's economic development and institutional changes, the time span of this history has not only been continuously extended, but also extended from more than 30 years when the subject rose in the 1980s to more than 50 years today. At the same time, the content is also increasingly rich. Especially with the deepening of reform and opening-up, after the wave of "Western learning spreading to the east" in western economics passed, focusing on empirical research gradually became the mainstream of economics, which led to the phenomenon that the study of modern economic history in China gradually warmed up in recent years, and many works on practical problems or countermeasures paid more attention to its "historical origin". Judging from the development trend of this discipline in the next five years or 10, the following problems need further study.

First, how to understand the Marxist theory that relations of production must adapt to productive forces and correctly evaluate the socialist transformation in the 1950s. Was the socialist transformation at that time "early" or "wrong"? Because this issue involves the evaluation of a series of major issues, it is not only a theoretical issue of socialism, but also a concrete historical phenomenon. If we look at the problem from the perspective of historical and logical consistency, we must explain the relationship between the establishment of single public ownership and planned economy and the subsequent reform and opening up and today's economic system. Therefore, it has become a focus and a difficult issue in the study of China's modern economic history.

Second, how to understand the choice of China's economic development path. The 56-year history of economic development and institutional changes in New China is a history of constantly exploring and selecting development paths and supporting systems suitable for China's national conditions. How to understand this period of history, whether China can find the development path of Socialism with Chinese characteristics, and how to understand the socialist nature of China's economic system is another important topic in the study of China's modern economic history. This involves the understanding of the essence and manifestations of socialism and socialist theory. So far, this problem has not been fully clarified.

The third is how to understand the relationship between the party and the government and the relationship between the government and the economy since the founding of the People's Republic of China. When we study the 56-year economic history of China, we will encounter the problem of how to recognize and evaluate the particularity of China. For a long time, China has implemented a government-led development model. What does this model have to do with socialism? How to keep pace with the times, promote the transformation of government's economic functions, and improve the ruling ability of China's * * * production party; Whether China's development path and achievements adopt the evaluation standards recognized by most scholars in the world needs to be summarized from a historical perspective.

Fourth, economic benefits and social equity. This is also an important theoretical problem that puzzles the study of China's modern economic history. Looking back at history, from the socialist transformation in the 1950s to the Great Leap Forward; Criticize the so-called "bourgeois legal rights" from the "fixed production quotas" and "trusts" to the "Cultural Revolution" in the 1960s. From "Let some people get rich first" in 1980s to "863 Poverty Alleviation Plan" in 1990s, the establishment of social security system and the recent reduction and exemption of agricultural tax. Both reflect that the party and the government have been exploring and adjusting relevant policies for a long time to achieve the goal of giving consideration to both. How to understand and evaluate the above-mentioned problems in the past 56 years in New China requires the efforts of both economic history research and theoretical circles.

In the next five years or 10 years, the focus of the study of China's modern economic history will be related to the major problems encountered in China's economic development in the future. To sum up, there are four major problems: (1) the history of rural economic development, the evolution of urban-rural relations (including urbanization), and the history of labor mobility, employment and income distribution (including the evolution of household registration system). (2) The history of the relationship between the state and farmers, the history of state-owned enterprises and the evolution of the relationship between the government and the market around the transformation of the government's economic functions. (3) Carry out interdisciplinary historical research on the relationship between population, environment, resources, science and technology and economic development around people-oriented and sustainable development. (4) Historical research on the economic relations between China and foreign countries around the process of economic globalization.

Source: Journal of China Academy of Social Sciences.