However, the demand exceeds the supply, and it is necessary to import oil from the international oil market. Some countries, including the United States, have gradually changed from net oil exporters to net oil importers. On the other hand, because the major oil-producing countries in the Middle East oppose the Middle East policy of the United States and other major western developed countries, they have adopted the "oil embargo" policy twice since 1973, which has led to two sharp increases in the international oil market price. The prices in China oil market are obviously higher than those in the previous period. At 1973- 1979, the price of a barrel of oil increased above 10, and further increased to a level close to or exceeding $30 at 1979- 1985.
In recent years, the United States and other western countries have relaxed restrictions on the energy industry and adopted some measures to encourage the development of new energy industries, such as vigorously utilizing and developing ethanol. In recent years, the development of fuel ethanol in the United States has accelerated. The total consumption of ethanol and gasoline in the United States has exceeded 20% of the total consumption of gasoline, and 12% of corn production in the United States is used to produce fuel ethanol. Coupled with the existing comprehensive petroleum strategy system, the dependence of western countries on Middle East oil is not as good as before. At the same time, the Middle East has also learned the previous lessons and realized that rising oil will force major consumer countries to reduce oil exports. So this is a win-win situation for both sides.
Since China became an oil importer from 65438 to 0993, with the development of economy and the increasing import volume, it has been increasingly influenced by the fluctuation of international oil market. Although there has not been a large-scale oil crisis, the rising oil price and oil shortage still have many impacts on China's production, life and economic development under the increasingly prominent contradiction between supply and demand, which are as follows:
1. Oil shortage has a great impact on industry and economy.
As an important industrial and chemical raw material, petroleum is widely used and has important strategic and economic value to the country.
Economic development is extremely important. At present, China has entered the stage of heavy industrialization. Compared with the early 1990s,
The dependence of economic growth on energy and oil has increased significantly. Energy Consumption Bomb of China's Economic Growth in 2003
Compared with 199 1 year, the sex coefficient is nearly twice as high. In 2003, the proportion of oil consumption in China reached 22.7%, while that in China in 2003 was 199 1.
The annual height is 5.6 percentage points; In 2003, the dependence of oil on foreign countries reached 35%. Once there is a serious shortage of oil supply,
Health will have a great impact on China's economy and production.
2. The rise of international oil price leads to the increase of domestic production cost and may lead to inflation. As the basic fuel and raw material of industrial society, petroleum constitutes an important part of industrial cost. With the shift of production costs to consumption cost, the price level of the whole society will increase and the formation of inflation will accelerate. China's energy consumption per unit GDP is already higher than that of other countries, and the rising international crude oil price will make China face greater inflationary pressure. Only considering the oil price factor, the oil price rose from $30 to $60, and the CPI rose by 1.8 percentage points. If we consider that the adjustment of domestic oil price and international crude oil price is not synchronized, and the last oil price increase needs to be digested, then the domestic price increase may be more.
3. The rise of international crude oil price will affect China's balance of payments.
On the premise of China's increasing dependence on foreign oil, the sustained rise of international crude oil prices will be broken.
China's original trade balance. In 2004, China paid an extra $20 billion for the rise in oil prices, and
The total trade surplus that year was $32 billion, if you don't consider the foreign exchange paid by high-priced oil.
The trade surplus in 2004 can reach $52 billion. In 2003, China imported about 965.438 billion tons of oil. but
The average oil price that year was $29.6 a barrel. Even if imports remain at the level of 654.38 billion tons, the oil price in China is only high.
The payment needs 20 billion dollars. In a word, under the premise that the world economic situation remains unchanged, the international crude oil price rises.
May cause China's balance of payments deficit.
4. Change residents' consumption structure and restrain residents' consumption.
The higher the oil price, the higher the product cost and price, which will hinder the expansion of the original consumer demand and the formation of new consumer demand hotspots. Among them, automobile consumption is the most typical one. The rise in oil prices has curbed residents' willingness to buy cars. Many people worry that they can't afford a car, so they choose to wait and see with money. High oil prices will also change the public's housing consumption pattern, but with the rise of oil prices, the distance between the house and the workplace has become a problem that must be considered. Due to the continuous rise in oil prices, transportation costs such as aviation and long-distance buses have risen, and tourism has also increased costs, further affecting the tourism needs of some consumers. From the above analysis, it can be seen that the benefits of oil reserves are not only reflected in stabilizing oil prices, but also in compensation for indirect and potential losses of the national economy and production.